Weekend Show – Sat 7 Sep, 2019

Hour 1 – A Major Focus On Precious Metals and Bonds
Full Hour

On this weekend show we spend the majority of the hour focused on the precious metals. We look at the charts and stocks while also considering the bond markets roll in the precious metals strength.

I will be at the Beaver Creek Conference all next week so posting will be light. Please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com if you have any questions for companies at the conference.

I hope you all have a great weekend!

  • Segment 1 – Doc kicks off the show with a long term outlook for gold. Bring up the 15 year monthly gold chart to follow along. We also discuss a couple company charts that need to be considered in the big picture gold price.
  • Segment 2 – Brien Leni, Founder of the Junior Stock Review shares what he is looking for in metals stocks right now. In a rising gold price environment it is easy to get distracted by lower quality companies.
  • Segment 3 and 4 – Jesse Felder and I look at the bond market and overall attractiveness of safe haven assets. While bonds might bounce back the overall trend is what really matters.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Segment 1 – Doc
Segment 2 – Brien Leni
Segment 3 and 4 – Jesse Felder

Dana Lyons Commentary – Fri 6 Sep, 2019

Is “Sell The Rip” The New Strategy For The S&P?

Dana Lyons joins me to share why he is selling into the pop in the S&P. The strategy of sell the rip for risk on assets and buy the dip in safe asset has been working for Dana and his clients. We also discuss the potential length of the reversal that started yesterday.

Click here to visit Dana’s free blog.

Also click here for his subscriber site where you get more specific trading advice.

Click here to follow Dana on Twitter.

Joel Elconin – Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show – Wed 4 Sep, 2019

US Markets – A change from buy the dip to trade the range

US markets are bouncing today and testing the upper level of the recent August trading range at 2940. Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show shares his thoughts on the market action and the change in mentality of traders. Plus a couple comments on the uptrend in bonds and gold and silver.

Click here to visit the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show.

Mike Larson – Safe Money Report – Thu 29 Aug, 2019

There are some amazing extremes in the US bond market right now

Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe Money Report joins me to outline some historical extremes that we are seeing in the US bond market. As much as people want to dismiss the importance of the yield curve inversion the wide range of lower yields are telling a very important story about how worried investors are right now.

Also I will be traveling today back east for a wedding tomorrow. Posting will be light for the next couple days however please keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com. If you have any suggestions on companies to meet with at the Beaver Creek Conference please include those in your email and I will be sure to set up meetings.

Click here to follow Mike on Twitter.

Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 15 Aug, 2019

Bonds, Gold and the USD all rising – Is this sustainable?

With bonds, gold and the USD all rising in the US there is no doubt fear is on the minds of many investors. The question is if this is sustainable for all these markets. Craig Hemke, Founder of TF Metals Report joins me to share his thoughts.

Click here to visit Craig’s site for more metals commentary.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Wed 24 Jul, 2019

With yields lower/negative around the world why are US yields not there yet?

Chris Temple joins me today to focus on the bond markets around the world. As yields are lower pretty much everywhere else and in some cases negative, in the US yields are low but still a distance from these other areas. It all comes down to the central banks but something is going to need to play catch up…

Click here to learn more about Chris’s newsletter.

Dana Lyons Commentary – Fri 21 Jun, 2019

Thought on Gold, US Markets, and Bonds

Dana Lyons joins me to kick off today with his thoughts on both the trade into gold as well as US markets. As much as he tries to ignore the Fed the fact remains that there is a lot of liquidity in the system and this money is landing in a wide range of sectors.


Click on the following links to follow along with what Dana is thinking on a daily basis. The Lyons Share http://lyonssharepro.com My 401K Pro http://My401kPro.com 

The War of Stocks and Bonds

This post The War of Stocks and Bonds appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Jerome Powell dangled the morsel yesterday — rate cuts are on the way.

And like Pavlov’s famously conditioned dogs, Wall Street heard the opening bell this morning… and began drooling.

The major indexes were instantly up and away.

They lost momentum after the president intimated he may take a swing at Iran for downing a U.S. drone.

“You’ll soon find out” was his response when asked if the U.S. would retaliate.

The bulls nonetheless won the day…

The Dow Jones was up 249 points at closing whistle. The S&P gained 28; the Nasdaq, 64 points.

Gold, meantime, went skyshooting $44.50 today — $44.50!

Combine the prospects of vastcentral bank easing with possible fireworks in the Persian Gulf… and you have your answer.

What about the bond market?

Stocks vs. Bonds

The bellwether 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.98% this morning… its lowest point since the 2016 election.

And so the infinitely expanding gulf between stock market and bond market widens further yet.

One vision is bright, cheery, trusting. The other is dark, dour… and morose.

One of these markets will be proven right. One will be proven wrong.

Our money is on the bond market.

We have furnished ample evidence that recession is likely on tap within three months of the next rate cut.

Here analyst Sven Henrich reinforces our deep faith in the calendar of misfortune:

Every single time the Fed cut rates when unemployment was below 4%, a recession immediately ensued & unemployment shot to 67%. Again: Every. single. time.

We remind you:

The United States unemployment rate presently stands at 3.6% — the lowest in 50 years.

“A Gorgeously Wrapped Gift Box Containing a Time Bomb”

An unemployment rate below 4% is a false prize, a sugar-coated poison… a gorgeously wrapped gift box containing a time bomb.

Unemployment previously slipped beneath 4% in April 2000 — at the peak of the dot-com delirium.

The economy was in recession by March 2001.

Prior to 2000, unemployment had previously fallen below 4% in December 1969.

The economy was sunk in recession shortly thereafter.

The pattern stretches to the 1950s.

The proof, clear as gin… and equally as stiff:

Chart

And unemployment often bottoms nine months before recession’s onset… according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Meantime, it is 10 years into the present economic “expansion.” Next month will establish a record.

A Very Strange Expansion

An expanding economy is generally a time of surplus.

It is a time to store in reserves, to squirrel away acorns, to save against the rainy day — the inevitable rainy day.

These savings will see you through.

But during this economic expansion, during this season of bounty… the United States has only sunk deeper into debt.

The cupboards are empty.

Trillion-dollar annual deficits are presently in sight.

The national debt rises to $22.3 trillion — some 105% of GDP.

And interest payments on the debt alone will likely eclipse defense spending by 2025.

Come the inevitable recession, Uncle Samuel will plunge even deeper into debt.

That is, he will reach even further into the future… to rob it for our benefit today.

Deficits may double — or more.

How is the business at all sustainable?

But it’s not only a doddering old uncle going under the water…

The Corporate Debt Bomb

Corporations have loaded themselves to the gunwales with cheap debt — cheap debt coming by way of the Federal Reserve.

First-quarter nonfinancial corporate debt increased to $9.93 trillion. That is a record.

And this we learn from the Treasury Department:

Today’s nonfinancial corporate debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest since 1947… when records began.

And here we spot a straw swaying menacingly in the wind…

Fitch informs us nearly $10 billion of high-yield corporate bonds have already defaulted in the second quarter — double the amount of first-quarter defaults.

Warns Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer at SkyBridge Capital:

“Whatever the cause [of the next recession] may be, the acute point of pain will be in corporate credit.”

Depends on it.

Finally we come to the fabulously and grotesquely indebted American consumer…

Consumers Drowning in Debt

Total U.S. consumer debt notched $14 trillion in the first quarter — exceeding the roughly $13 trillion before the financial crisis.

Twenty-three percent of Americans claim that life’s essentials — food, rent, utilities — constitute the bulk of their credit card purchases.

And 60% of Americans hold less than $1,000 in savings.

How will they keep up come the next recession? How will they meet their debts?

They already groan under the load — and the economy is still expanding.

Meantime, the cost of a middle-class lifestyle has surged 30% over the past two decades.

But Pew Research reports the average American worker wields no more purchasing power today… than he did 40 years ago.

That is, he has jogged in place 40 years.

Utter and Complete Failure

The past 10 years of central bank intervention on a grand and heroic scale have worked little benefit.

The coming recession will bring yet more intervention— on an even grander and more heroic scale.

But why should we expect it to yield any difference whatsoever?

For the overall view, we turn to Mr. Sven Henrich:

The grand central bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure. The games of cheap money and constant intervention that have brought you record global debt to the tune of $250 trillion and record wealth inequality are about to embark on a new round… The new global rate-cutting cycle begins anew before the last one ever ended. Brace yourselves, as no one, absolutely no one, can know how this will turn out…

We are witnessing a historic unraveling here. Everything every central banker has uttered last year was completely wrong. Every projection they made over the last 10 years has been wrong… Why place confidence in people who are staring at the ruins of the policies they unleashed on the world and are about to unleash again?…

All the distortions of 10 years of cheap money, debt, wealth inequality, zombie companies, negative debt… will all be further exacerbated by hapless and scared central bankers whose only solution to failure is to embark on the same cheap money train again. All under the banner to “extend the business cycle” at all costs. Never asking whether they should nor considering the consequences. But since they are not elected by the people and face zero consequences for failure, they don’t have to consider the collateral damage they inflict.

Unfortunately, the rest of us do…

Regards,

Brian Maher
Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning

The post The War of Stocks and Bonds appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

Weekend Show – Sat 8 Jun, 2019

Hour 1 – Making Sense Of The Increased Volatility Across The Board

It was a crazy week for investors. Money flew into US markets, gold and bonds all on the back of weak US data and rate cut expectations screaming higher. We discuss all these topics as well as look into the cannabis space trying to make light of all the new companies.

The show this week is packed with extended segments. There was so much to cover I didn’t want to cut any of our guest short. I hope you all enjoy and have a great weekend!

  • Segment 1 – Rick Bensignor, Founder of Bensignor Investment Strategies joins me for a full recap on US markets, bonds, the USD, and gold.
  • Segment 2 – Trader Vic weighs in on the politcal nature of the markets and the Fed. Plus how to trade the volatility.
  • Segment 3 – Sean Brodrick who just launched the Marijuana Millionaire Portfolio answers some questions on how to isolate the good cannabis companies from the growing herd.
  • Segment 4 – A new guest to the show Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital explains how he has managed a successful resource fund during the bear market.

It was a slow week on the company interviews side of things but watch next week when I introduce a couple companies outside of the resource sector. Plus I will be chatting with Ivan Bebek (Auryn Resources) and Quinton Hennigh (Novo Resources), so please send in your questions – Fleck@kereport.com.


Rick Bensignor
Trader Vic Sperandeo
Sean Brodrick
Matt Geiger

The Market Reversal From Yesterday – How Real Is It?

Chris Temple sent a note to his subscribers after the market close on Monday telling them to take positions in US markets because he thought a rebound would happen. As the markets bounced on Tuesday now the question is if the rebound will continue or the downtrend continue. Plus a couple comments on the odd couple trade (gold and bonds)

Click here to visit Chris’s site and follow along with what he is writing about.