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Category Archives: Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders

Watch The Financial Sector For The Next Topping Pattern

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April 16, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

A very interesting price pattern is setting up in the financial sector that could lead to a very big move in the US & Global markets.  Remember how in 2008-09, the Financial sector and Insurance sector were some of the biggest hit stock sectors to prompt a global market crisis?  Well, the next few weeks and months for the financial sector are setting up to be critical for our future expectations of the US stock market and global economy.

Right now, many of the financial sector stocks are poised near an upper price channel that must be breached/broken before any further upside http:/price advance can take place.  The current trend has been bullish as prices have rallied off the December 2018 lows.  Yet, we are acutely aware of the bigger price channels that could become critical to our future decision making.  If there is any price weakness near these upper price channel levels and any downside price rotation, the downside potential for the price is massive and could lead to bigger concerns.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Let’s start off by taking a look at these Monthly charts…

This first Monthly Bank Of America chart is best at showing the price channel (in YELLOW) as well as a key Fibonacci price level (highlighted by the MAGENTA line).  We’ve also highlighted a price zone with a green shaded box that we believe is key support/resistance for the current price trend.

As you can see from this chart, since early February 2018, the overall trend has shifted into a sideways bearish trend.  The price recovery from December 2018 was impressive, yes, but it is still rotating within this sideways/bearish price channel.  Our belief is that this YELLOW upper price channel level MUST be broken in order for the price to continue higher at this point.  Any failure to accomplish this will result in a price reversal that could precipitate a 30% price decline in the value of BAC.  In other words, “it is do-or-die time – again”.

 

This Monthly JPM chart shows a similar pattern, yet the price channel is a bit more narrow visually.  We have almost the same setup in JPM as we do in BAC.  The same channels, the same type of Fibonacci price support level, the same type of sideways price support zone (the shaded box) and the same overall setup.  As traders, we have to watch for these types of setup and be aware of the risks that could unfold with a collapse of the financial sector over the next few weeks.

We believe the next few weeks could be critical for the financial sector and for the overall markets.  If weakness hits the financial sector as global growth continues to stagnate we could enter a period where the global perception of the future 12~24 months may change.  Right now, perception has been relatively optimistic in the global stock markets.  Most traders have been optimistic that the markets will recover and a US/China trade deal will get settled.  The biggest concern has been the EU and the growth of the European countries.

What if that suddenly changed?

 

We are not saying it will or that we know anything special about this setup.  We are just suggesting that the Monthly charts, above, are suggesting that price will either break above this upper price channel or fail to break this level and move lower.  We are suggesting that, as skilled traders, we need to be acutely aware of the risks within the financial sector right now and prepare for either outcome.

This last chart, a Weekly FAS chart, shows a more detailed view of this same price rotation and sideways expanding wedge/channel formation.  Pay very close attention to the shaded support channel shown with the GREEN BOX on this chart.  Any price rotation within this level should be considered “within a support channel” and not a real risk initially.  We want to see price break above the upper price channel fairly quickly, within the next 2 to 5+ weeks, and we can to see it establish a new high (above $78 on this chart) to confirm a new bullish price trend.  Once this happens, we’ll be watching for further price rotation and setups.  If it fails to happen, then the RED DOWN ARROW is the most likely outcome given the current price setup.

 

Any downside price move in the Financial sector would have to be associated with some decreased future expectations by investors.  Thus, our bigger concern is that something is lurking just below the surface right now that could pull the floor out from under this sector.  Is it a surprise Fed rate increase?  Is it some news from the EU?  Is it a sudden increase in credit defaults?  What is the “other shoe” – so to say.

Be prepared.  If all goes well, then we’ll know within a few more weeks if the upside price rally will continue or if we need to start digging for clues as to why the support for the financial sector is eroding.  This really is a “do or die” setup in the financial sector and we urge all traders to pay very close attention to this sector going forward.  We believe it will be the leading sector for any major price weakness across the global markets.

Do you want to find a team of dedicated researchers and traders that can help you find and execute better trades in 2019 and beyond?  Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you prepare for the big moves in the global markets and find better opportunities for greater success in the future.  Our team of researchers and traders continue to scan the markets for new trades and incredible research for all our members and followers.

Chris Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Tue 16 Apr, 2019

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How To Play This Selloff In Gold and Gold Stocks

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders has been relatively bearish on gold over the past couple months. Now that we have this down move in gold and gold stocks he weighs in on how low the metal could go and how long the downtrend could last.

Click here to visit Chris’s site – The Technical Traders.

Is This The Last Leg Higher For The Dow Index?

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April 9, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders

Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this current upside price move is nearing the end of any immediate upside potential.  Yes, back in December 2018 and before, we called for an “Ultimate Low” pattern setup followed by an incredible run to new all-time highs when almost everyone else was calling for a continued downside price move.  Now, that the YM/DOW is only 640 points away from reaching all-time highs again, we believe a new price peak will setup sometime near June/July 2019.

Our researchers believe the continued upside price bias will stay in place for at least another 30 days and that the YM.DOW will establish new higher all-time highs in late April or early May 2019.  We believe once a “scouting party” type price move completes above the all-time highs near $27,000, a sideways price rotation will begin that may last as long as 25 to 55 days.  Our predictive modeling systems are suggesting that June/July are important months for the global equities/stock markets and we believe we’ll know more about the setups that will prompt bigger moves as we get closer to these dates.

Right now, our researchers are suggesting the upside move in the YM/DOW is likely to push higher by +2.5 to +3% or slightly more.  Once the $27,000 level is breached to the upside, traders should begin to become much more cautious of price rotation and volatility.  As we head into June/July/August 2019, be prepared for a spike in volatility/VIX as price rotation is likely to become much more aggressive.

 

Read our most recent research to learn more about what we believe will happen over the next few months.  Get ready for some bigger price swings and prepare for the last bit of upside price trending before a price peak sets up near June/July.  Ultimately, we believe there is an opportunity for skilled traders that can see and create opportunity from these moves.  We’ve been warning that 2019 is going to be an incredible year for skilled traders – our call near the end of 2018 that this move higher would target new all-time highs is proof of the opportunity that exists if you pay attention to our research.  Do you know of any other firm that called this move as accurately as we did?

On September 17, 2018 our Predictive Trading Model Suggests Falling Stock Prices During US Elections.

Please visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more about how we help our members learn to find and execute incredible trading opportunities.  We’ve recently launched a new technology solution for our members that delivers our incredible research and trading solutions.  2019 is going to continue to be an incredible year for skilled traders – you won’t want to miss these big moves that are setting up.

Chris Vermeulen

Crude Oil Nearing Resistance – Could A New Top Form Here?

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April 8, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders

The recent recovery in Crude Oil has, partially, been based on increasing expectations of a global economic recovery taking place and the continued news that the US/China will work out a trade deal.  Crude inventories.  Just last week US Crude Oil inventories came in at +7.2 million barrels vs. expectations of -425,000 barrels ().  Additionally, concerns in Syria and Libya are pushing prices a bit higher as well.  Whenever there are supply concerns or uncertainty out of this region, prices tend to rise.

The facts remain very dynamic for Oil.  The US is continuing to produce more and more oil and is expected to become a “net exporter” of oil this year.  Economic issues will, eventually, resolve themselves, yet we don’t know the final outcome of these trade deals or how the economy will react to any milestones that are required within the final settlement.  And, again, these continuing issues in Libya, Syria and near this region are likely to cause some increased levels of uncertainty over the next 60+ days.

Our researchers, at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, believe the $65.00 level will act as resistance to this current upswing.  We believe the upside price move may continue to levels near $67.50 before weakening and beginning a topping formation.  We believe our expectation that precious metals will bottom near April 21~24 is key to understanding the dynamics of this move in Oil.  As long as FEAR does not enter the market, then Oil will likely react to impulse factors exclusively related to Oil.  Once Gold breaks out above $1500 per ounce, our belief is that Oil will react to fear factors related to some broader economic event driving investors into precious metals.

Therefore, we are urging traders to be cautious of the upside price swing in Oil at the moment.  Yes, we believe the upside will continue for at least another 10~15 days (possibly changing direction near April 21~24).  Yes, we believe current global dynamics support moderately higher Oil prices.  Yet, we feel these factors may change within the next 20~45 days as we believe some increased fear levels are about to hit the global markets.

 

At this point, we would urge Bullish Oil traders to start to become more cautious of any downside risks and begin to prepare for increased volatility.  We don’t have any real clue as to how this move will setup, but we do believe our other research support increased volatility within the Crude Oil markets and the potential for a new downside price swing before any further upside move sets up.

Please take a minute to review this research post from January 31, 2019: Learning From our SP500, Gold and Oil Research & Profit.

We’ve recently launched a new technology solution for our members that delivers our incredible research and trading solutions.  You can also visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to learn more about our research team and past article.  20129 is going to continue to be an incredible year for skilled traders – you won’t want to miss these big moves that are setting up.

Chris Vermeulen

Canadian Dollar May Be Setting Up For An Upside Breakout

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April 4, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe a current pennant/flag formation in the Canadian Dollar is suggesting an upside breakout move may be setting up over the next 5~7+ days.  Recently, the Canadian Dollar has weakened from 0.76875 to lows near 0.74375.  Current price rotation is almost perfectly aligned with Fibonacci Price theory suggesting that the recent failure to establish any new lower price level (highlighted on this chart in MAGENTA), suggests a tightening price range as the current pennant/flag formation completes over the next 5~7+ days.  It is our belief that as long as the current price level stays above the 0.74375 level throughout the completed pennant apex, an upside price break is very likely.

Skilled traders may look at this opportunity for an incredible 200+ pip upside price swing.  We believe the current downward price trend will be the last opportunity to target lower prices before the upside breakout occurs.  The next 3~5 days will likely see prices move a bit lower, targeting the lower support channel before the breakout rally begins.

Interestingly enough, this move in the Canadian Dollar aligns with our Gold/Silver research suggesting an April 21~24 date as a major bottom/basing date.  Could it be that some currency fluctuation or global market event will drive bigger moves in many of the major currencies while pushing traders into the precious metals markets at the same time?  We’ll know more as we get closer to the April 21~24 date, but right now we believe all the tea leaves are aligning for some type of bigger move in later April and skilled traders should begin positioning their trades accordingly.

If you want to learn how valuable a team of dedicated researchers and traders can be to your bottom line, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and profit from these moves.  We believe you won’t find anything like our proprietary research and trading triggers anywhere else on the planet.  Do yourself a favor and read some of our recent research posts to see just how valuable we can be to your future – then consider supporting our team and effort to assist you.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist

Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Wed 3 Apr, 2019

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Oil Nearing Resistance But Stocks Lagging – Sounds Like A Lot Of Commodities

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on the energy markets, including oil and natural gas. As oil nears resistance we could see a short term pullback but overall the continuation of a range bound market. The stocks continue to lag which sure sounds like a lot of other commodities…

Click here to visit the Technical Traders website and follow along with Chris’s calls.

ADL Predictions For Price Of Gold

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March 30, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

As we’ve been suggesting for months, expect continued moderate price weakness in Gold and Silver through most of April 2019 and possibly into early May 2019 before a strong price rally will setup and push Gold prices well above $1500 before the end of 2019.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system has been calling for this move for many months (see the chart below).  This advanced predictive price modeling system is suggesting that in May/June of 2019, we will likely see a bigger price rally unfold in Gold and Silver which may be paired with some type of geopolitical or global economic event.  See this article for more details.

Gold rallies on fear (in most cases) and the only reason for Gold to really as our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting is that some renewed level of fear could enter the global markets.  This could be from any type of global crisis event or even a regional crisis event (think Brexit, EU crisis or some other foreign nation crisis).  We believe skilled traders should be actively seeking to identify buying opportunities below $1295 in Gold as we only have about 20 days left before our original bottom/base date of April 21, 2019.

This Gold Monthly chart, below, highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems expectations as well as the three support levels that we believe all Gold traders should be targeting.  Gold is currently within the first target level and an opportunity to buy below $1295 would be an excellent starting position.  Further, any additional opportunity to buy below $1250 should be an incredible opportunity – if it happens.  Lastly, our lowest support level is below $1165.  Although unlikely, if Gold retraces to below this level, then please don’t miss this opportunity to get into additional long positions.

Our ADL predictive price modeling system is suggesting that May & June 2019 will start a bullish price rally in Gold and Silver that should push prices well above $1500 by October/November 2019 – possibly much higher.  Overall, we believe this could be the beginning of a much bigger upside leg in Precious metals and all traders need to be aware of this future price move.

We’ve been suggesting this could be the “move of a lifetime” setting up in the metals because it will likely pair or align with some type of broader global stock market move to the downside.  Our opinion is that May/June are dates that all traders should consider developing very protective positions as the markets shake up and Gold begins this incredible run higher.

Take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members find and execute better trades while keeping them aware of market trends, cycles and key insights using our proprietary predictive price modeling utilities.  We are certain you will find our research above and beyond anything else you’ve seen anywhere on the planet.  Please consider joining our other hundreds of members in developing better skills and finding incredible opportunities for future success while trading with www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Chris Vermeulen

Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity

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March 28, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months.  We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.

Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move.  On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.

Take a minute to read that article and consider this current downside price action as a gift the precious metals markets are allowing for all of us.  This is the move that we’ve been warning about for months – the retracement from the $1315~1320 level that should bottom out near $1240~1265 and will ultimately become the “momentum base” for the future upside move.  Precious metals are starting a move that we predicted many months ago.  Our researchers believe Gold will trade below $1275 for a brief period of time (likely just a few days or weeks) before setting up a broad-based momentum bottom.  Our objective is to “leg into” this setup with a series of long trades for the ultimate upside breakout.

Our research suggests that near the end of April 2019 or in early May 2019, Gold prices will likely begin a strong upside price move that will quickly target the $1500+ price level.  We believe this current price swing will set up as the last real opportunity for skilled traders to accumulate long positions in precious metals while we wait for the April/May breakout move.  Any opportunity to buy near the lower range of our Buy Zones would be an excellent entry position given our future prediction that a massive upside breakout move is just 20~30 days away from starting.

This Daily Gold chart shows just how deep the Buy Zone is for Gold.  Any price activity below $1275 would be a solid entry for skilled traders.  Any further opportunity to add to that position below $1265 is even better.  Ultimately, we believe the $1240 to $1250 level will hold as support for the momentum bottom.

 

This Weekly Gold chart highlights our Buy Zone in broader price perspective.  As you can see, the $1250 level corresponds to a price peak back in October/November 2018.  We believe this level will act as long-term support and that price will bottom between $1240 and $1265 before the upside price swing begins.

This last Weekly Silver chart highlights the fairly narrow Buy Zone in silver that will allow traders to accumulate long position near of just above $14.50.  We believe this $14.50 level will become key support throughout this April 2019 lower price rotation.  Remember, near the end of April or in early May, we strongly believe a new upside price move will take place that will blow through recent highs and prompt a 12 to 25% upside price move.  Our target for Gold is above $1500 (likely $1575 to $1675).  Our upside target for Silver is $17.50 to $19.50 with this first upside leg.  Our opinion is that this initial upside leg could be the start of a much larger and much more profitable price advance – lasting many months.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success with our complete Wealth Building Traders Newsletter with Long-Term investing signals, Position trades, Swing trades, and our pre-market gap fill and spike day trades.

Chris Vermeulen

20 Days Left To Find Buying Opportunities in Gold

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March 24, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our researchers have been glued to Gold, Silver and the Precious Metals sector for many months. We believe the current setup in Gold is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for skilled traders to stake positions below $1300 before a potentially incredible upside price move.  We’ve been alerting our members and follower to this opportunity since well before the October/December 2018 downside price rotation in the US markets.

October 5, 2018: Prepare for a gold and silver rally

December 9, 2018: Waiting for gold to erupt

Jan 25, 2018: Why everyone is talking about gold and silver

Additionally, our researchers called the bottom in the US equities markets and warned of an incredible upside price rotation setting up just before the actual price bottom occurred on December 24, 2018.

December 26, 2018: Has the equities selloff reached a bottom yet

Our research continues to suggest that Gold and Silver will rotate within a fairly narrow range over the next 3~5 weeks before setting up a likely price bottom near April 21, 2019.  We’ve been predicting this bottom formation for many months and have been warning our followers to prepare for this move and grab opportunities below $1300 when they set up.

This first chart, a Monthly chart showing our TT Charger price modeling system, clearly illustrates the strength of this bullish price trend and the initiation of this trend back in early 2016.  One of the strengths of the TT Charger modeling system is that it establishes a number of key price data points and trend factors.  The background color highlighted ranges show price range breadth and range expansion or contraction.  The dual channel facets show where price is likely to find support and resistance.  The DOT LEVELS show where critical support or resistance is in terms of the overall trend channels.

Right now, we are still in a bullish trend with key support near $1165.  The Dual Channel system is showing the $1260 to $1285 level is currently the most likely active support levels just below current price.  Thus, we could see a move to near these levels over the next 3+ weeks and I would suggest skilled traders jump on this opportunity.  The Range system is showing a current $250~350 price range, thus, any upside price breakout could easily rally within this range and push prices at least $250+ higher than current levels – likely well above $1550.  If range expansion sets up, we could see prices well above $1750.

 

We’ve authored hundreds of research posts over the past 12+ months and the one thing that we continue to mention is that Fibonacci price theory continues to operate on the premise that “price must always attempt to find and establish new price highs or lows – at all times”.  Please keep this in mind as we continue.

Take a look at the TT Charger chart, above, and the raw Monthly price chart, below.  Price must always attempt to find and establish new price highs or lows – so where is price going based on the most recent price rotations?  Let’s review…

After rallying in early 2016 to establish a price high of $1377.50, gold immediately rotated downward to establish a higher low near $1124.50.  The $1377.50 high price was a “new price high” in terms of previous rotational highs while the $1124.50 low was a higher low price rotation point.  Thus, a failed “new price low”.

Since these two price points, Gold has settled into a sideways price channel where new price highs and lows have been attempted, but have failed to breakout out of the existing previous high and low price levels.  As a technician of price, we can immediately identify this as a possible “Pennant or Flag” formation.  With the last “new price level” being a “new price high” we still believe that Gold will attempt to break above the recent high price levels and attempt a much bigger upside price swing.

Our analysis suggests the April 21 date as a critical date for the potential price bottom in Gold and Silver.  Our belief is that this date will like result in a near-term momentum bottom in price.  Where price may fall, briefly, below $1290 and rotate into a “washout low” price rotation.  The opportunity for this move could come 3~5 days before or after the April 21 date.

 

This last chart, a Monthly price chart, illustrating the Pennant/Flag formation in Gold should be the clearest example we can provide that Gold will soon break out to the upside and rally extensively higher if our research and analysis are correct.  The momentum that has built up over the past 2+ years, as well as the global demand for Gold by central banks and by investors as a hedging instrument, could prompt Gold and Silver to rally at least 50~60% in this first upside breakout wave – resulting in $1900 gold prices.  Silver could rally to well above $18~19 in a similar move and the number our researchers believe may become the upside target in Silver is $21.

This big picture chart and technical pattern could still take months to unfold if the price is to test the lower end of the trading range at $1225.  If our analysis is correct, Gold and Silver could begin an upside price breakout shortly after April 21 (very likely to become evident in early May 2019).  The upside potential for this move is at least $1550 in Gold and at least $18 in Silver.

Please understand that any upside breakout in Gold and Silver will likely be associated with general global market weakness including the potential for some type of global crisis event.  This could be related to the EU, BREXIT, China, France or any other nation burdened by debt, dealing with election turmoil or related to social or economic angst.  We could almost throw a dart at a map of the globe and hit some area that is poised for some type of economic crisis.

Gold – Gold chart by TradingView

Our last buy signal for gold and gold miners was in Sept 2018 and subscribers and our team profited from that $100 gold rally. This next opportunity here is to understand that we only have about 20~25 days to search out and isolate the best entry prices we can find in Gold and Silver before our April 21 momentum bottom date hits.  This means we need to prepare for this upside breakout move in Precious Metals and prepare our other open positions for the possibility of extended downside pricing concerns.  If you read our continued research posts, you’ll understand that we believe the US stock market will rotate a bit lower prior to this April 21 date and rally as well.

We believe the US equities markets will become a safe-haven, like Gold, where foreign investors can balance the strength of the US Dollar with the strong US economy and continued equity price appreciation while more fragile nations deal with economic crisis events and debt concerns.  Thus, we believe capital will flood the US markets after April 21 as evidence of these economic concerns drives foreign investors into US equities.

Take a minute to find out why Technical Traders Ltd. is quickly becoming one of the best research and trading services you can find anywhere on the planet.  We are about to launch a new technology product to assist our members and we continue to deliver incredible research posts, like this one, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems and adaptive learning solutions.  If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond Join Our Wealth Trading Newsletter Today.

Chris Vermeulen

Hour 1 – The Environment Where Central Banks Are Scared

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March 24, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

It was another interesting Fed meeting and statement that caused some serious volatility in the markets to end the week. No doubt a risk off trade has developed as yields fell hard around the world. Be sure to go back through the week and listen to some of the daily editorials posted post-Fed. There’s a lot of good information.

  • Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx shares his thoughts on the Fed statement and situation that the central banks are in. Interest rates are historically low, and even negative in many countries, but the global economy continues to slow.

 

  • Segment 2 – Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders has some thoughts on how far the market could breakdown.

 

  • Segment 3 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group weighs in on the precious metals markets and when he sees a recession hitting the US.

 

  • Segment 4 – We get an update from IsoEnergy and the President and CEO Craig Parry. IsoEnergy has been drilling some good exploration holes and looking to continue stepping out through the year. Click here to visit the IsoEnergy website.

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