The bullishness continues for US markets, but is it justified?
There’s no denying that the US markets have been on quite the run to close out 2019. Whether we attribute it tot he Fed injecting capital into the repo market or some better trade comments a lot of money that was on the sidelines is now in the equity markets.
Chris Temple joins me for a discussion focused on the overall health of the markets while also touching on volatility as the VIX is below 12 today. As much as the markets should have a very natural pullback optimism can carry these things way further than expected.
History shows volatility will be picking up this month
Peter Hanks, Daily FX Analyst joins me to share some recent research he has done on the VIX and general volatility for the month of December. We have been talking a lot about the speculator short position in the VIX but this month could force them to unwind these positions if history is any indication.
Did the start of this week shift the markets bearish for December?
Joel Elconin joined me today to assess the overall health of the Us markets after the first two day this week brought all the bears out saying that this month would be big down month to end the year. We address the move up in volatility and some big swings in Biotech stocks this week.
Rick Ackerman joins me today to share a recent trade he is taking going short on the S&P. While he does not think this will be “the mother of all tops” but for how far the market has run without any sort of correction he thinks now is the time. We also discuss the VIX which continues to trend lower and the speculators build on there historic level of shorts.
The bond market is telling us some weakness could be entering the US markets
Chris Vermeulen joins me to look at the charts for US markets, bonds, gold, and natural gas. He points out that bonds have rebounded and are showing that some of the smart big money is taking a more defensive position. However gold is lagging the moves in bonds. Also considering where the VIX had dropped to we could finally see a US market correction that could bring some fear back into investors minds.
Outside of trade rumors here’s what’s driving the US markets higher
Chris Temple kicks off today with a look at the markets which continue to mover higher. The reasons being given for this move deal with trade comments coming out of China. We think there is much more then just another comment that we have learned means little to nothing in the long run. Pay close attention to the comments given on the short VIX trade and the mentality of investors as we close in on the end of the year.
A look to the protuberance of gold vs the S&P this year
Ned Schmidt joins me today to share his thoughts on the moves in the US markets compared to the precious metals prices. We touch on the extreme positioning of the speculators in the VIX which is pointing to peak complacency. When it comes to gold Ned likes the way the miners and gold price have performed.
As we enter the week with hopes for some trade document by week’s end and as we all debate what’s priced in and what’s not, the VIX on Friday closed at around the lowest level since early October 2018 at 12ish. Late Friday, the CFTC data for the week ended last Tuesday revealed that non commercial (speculators) in the VIX futures were the most net short on record. And this closed at 91, https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/. Thus, to state simply, expectations are high.
With Markets At All Time Highs Look To Breadth and The VIX
Jeff Smalls, President of Arbor Financial joins me to outline why he is not jumping on the bullish train when it comes to the US markets. We discuss the weak breadth of this rally to all time highs as well as look at the VIX breaking below 13.
Market Volatility and Fear Is Here and Not Going Anywhere
Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show joins me to chat about the continued influence of politics on the markets. Volatility and fear are here to stay but we look ahead to the upcoming earnings season as a short term driver but more importunately what it could mean for future US economic data.