SILVER – Should Investors Lower Expectations?

By Dudley Pierce Baker
CommonStockWarrants
JuniorMiningNews

While investors have watched the price of gold performing very well and recently trading over $1600, silver has lagged and lagged badly. This begs the question, are we overrating or expecting too much from silver and our silver miners?

Quite the contrary.........

Two other analysts that I follow are saying to be patient and that silver will be catching up soon, really soon.

Below I give my opinion on how to invest in silver, if these analysts are correct that higher prices are coming.

Chris Vermeulen at TheTechnicalTraders.com sees the possibility of silver trading upwards of $90 - $95 per ounce within the next 24 months. A move of that potential is surely worth waiting for, is it not?

In this recent article by Chris,

SILVER TRADERS BIG TREND ANALYSIS – PART II

"...Remember, the current disparity level is just over 200% between Gold and Silver.  If Gold continues to rally higher and Silver attempts to break higher, attempting to narrow the disparity level, then Silver will (at some point) enter a near parabolic upside price move above $36 to $40.  Our researchers believe this may happen before June or July 2020...."

Clive Maund - January 13, 2020 writing on Silver-Phoenix500.com:

Silver Market Update

"...Silver’s recent rally looks diminutive and stunted compared to gold’s, but that’s normal at this early stage of a new bull market, when silver typically underperforms gold due to investors being risk inverse, with silver being perceived as more risky and volatile than gold. Nevertheless,....."

HOW TO INVEST FOR MAXIMUM GAINS

With the possibility of gold over $3,000 and silver over $90, investors would have the opportunity of making a fortune, if correctly invested.

I suggest a portfolio of gold and silver miners as well as some stock warrants which are trading on shares of your favorite companies. This market environment would create many 10 baggers, 10 times or more for your investment dollars and the stock warrants would normally be at least twice those gains.

You will find many stock warrants trading on gold and silver miners in my databases.

This is the time to THINK BIG AND GO FOR HOME RUNS.

If you are not familiar with stock warrants, I invite you to visit my website and download your free copy of "The Stock Warrant Handbook, Your Personal Guide To Trading Stock Warrants."

Those subscribing to my Gold Subscription or LifeTime Subscription get access to my entire portfolio of gold and silver miners and the stock warrants which I own as well as my weekly audio.

JOIN ME NOW TO GET STARTED

The Real Gold Bull Market Is Yet to Launch

 

 

 

 

Editors Note from Dudley Pierce Baker - CommonStockWarrants.com

"Marin Katusa and his team do an excellent job of marketing and presenting the views and justification for the continuing bull market in the resource sector. I basically agree with all of their views. I would suggest and I believe that Marin would agree, that investors should consider stock warrants which might be trading on any of the companies being considered for investment."

The Real Gold Bull Market Is Yet to Launch

The gold market has always moved in cycles—from dramatic boom to overnight bust, and eventually back again.

So far in this “boom,” gold has barely risen 20% from its floor.

That’s not even close to the minimum required to qualify for a true “bull market” over the past century.

  • The smallest gold run-up in the past 90 years was 45% from 1930-1933—more than twice the current gain.

The other rallies were far, far bigger: from 1972-1974, the rally yielded a 100% gain.

From 1978-1980, another 100% gain. Then from 2007-2010, a 67% increase in the price of gold.

The point is this: when gold is ready to rise, it takes off.

Every single one of the years in the date ranges above saw an increase of more than 20%. What some investors might see as slipping backwards may just be the cycle getting ready for its next natural advance.

  • So if you’re a subscriber to my Boom-Bust-Echo theory, then you know the gold rally has barely just begun.

The biggest profits still lie ahead of us.

Savvy investors will patiently hold, before finally selling near the peak of the boom.

For example, many major gold producers right now, such as Kinross, Gold Fields, Alamos, and Eldorado are trading around $5-6.

(Gold Fields is up nearly 190% from its lows 14 months ago – and that’s a $5 billion company!)

These stocks could easily be sitting at doubles a year or two from now. And the juniors’ percentage returns will likely be an order of magnitude greater.

It might be hard to believe that gold stocks could see gains of 500% or more in the next couple years. It was equally hard to believe in 1933, 1972, 1978, and 2007… but it happened every time.

Why Gold Is a Bad Investment When “This” Happens

During a gold rally, you might be tempted to invest directly in gold bullion.

There are many reasons why that’s not the best way to invest, including the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar. Have some bullion exposure.

But another really big reason is the potential for extreme leverage with gold stocks.

Look at what happened to gold in the ‘70s…

It took off early, cooled off a bit in the mid-‘70s, then hit the afterburners headed into the latter part of the decade.

On December 31, 1978, gold was at $226 an ounce.

On January 21, 1980, it maxed out at $850 an ounce.

That would be like gold going to $5,641 by the time the next U.S. President is inaugurated. If it happened forty years ago, it can happen again.

Now, digging up information on tiny gold producers from the early ‘80s is no easy task. Most of the information was not digitized then.

But here’s data we put together below on a few producers that the Katusa Research team found, along with the percentage returns at their peak:

Table 1. Gold Producer Returns, 1979-1980

 

That’s an average of a 220% gain.

The GDX, an index of gold miners, currently trades on the New York Stock Exchange for around $28. Keep in mind that the current gold rally has already begun—it’s up more than 37% from its low.

  • If gold plays out like the 1979-1980 rally, that would put the GDX Index at a cool $44.88 by the end of 2020. 

Of course, it’s only the lucky investor that’s going to catch it right at the top.

But suppose you could capture 75% of those gains. That’s still a 165% return.

Buying into gold stocks instead of gold takes luck out of the equation. But we still haven’t mentioned where the real gains are to be had.

The ones that turn a modest portfolio into your whole retirement plan.

And how you can beat the GDX returns by over 200% or more…

The ones that make your 10% speculation bigger than the rest of your account.

Next week, I will reveal the kind of stocks that really move your net worth needle. And my team and I will see many of them front row center at the 2020 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference with over 350+ companies in attendance.

This year we have a world-class line up you don’t want to miss…

Peter Schiff, Lord Conrad Black, Ross Beaty, Raoul Pal, Grant Williams, Brent Johnson, Rick Rule, Frank Holmes and many, many more.

My team and I will have our boots on the ground on the conference floor and on the stage, interviewing companies and meeting with key management behind the scenes.

I’ve spent many years in this gauntlet and know exactly what to look for in a great opportunity and speculation.

I encourage all Katusa Research subscribers to attend if they’re in the area and to come say hello.

For more information on the event, click here.

To get complimentary tickets, go to the registration page right here and then enter code “katusa100”.

Regards,

Marin

 

 

 

Hemp: The Natural Response to Plastic Pollution


Hemp: The Natural Response to Plastic Pollution

Vishal Vivek
by VISHAL VIVEK 4 days ago in INDUSTRY

Hemp: A Victim of Human Folly

Hemp: The Natural Response to Plastic Pollution

The current rate of plastic production is about one billion tons in three years. That is what a 2016 article in ScienceDaily says, quoting a University of Leicester study. Plastic is inert and hard to degrade. So it becomes a toxic techno-waste that has severe polluting effects on the earth’s biodiversity

A National Geographic report says that plastic kills millions of marine and land animals every year. Experts have found out that all species to have eaten microplastic – from small shrimps to big elephants. The effects vary from damaging the digestive and reproductive systems to death.

But Mother Nature has provided a simple solution to this menace: the hemp plant.

Hemp: A Victim of Human Folly

Hemp, or industrial hemp, is one of the earliest plants that our ancestors cultivated and used. Archeologists have found evidence of the use of hemp fiber some 10,000 years ago. Experts estimate that hemp cultivation began about 8000 years ago.

The many benefits of hemp have been available to human beings for centuries. But its cultivation and use were banned in most countries across the globe in the 20th century. The only crime of the plant is that it belongs to the same species, Cannabis Sativa, as marijuana.

But there is a significant distinction between hemp and marijuana. That is in the concentration levels of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), the component that gives marijuana its psychoactive properties. Marijuana can contain up to 30% of THC per dry weight.

Hemp, in contrast, contains 0.3% THC per dry weight. It does not have the psychoactive potential to get people high. Hemp got banned because this vital difference got overlooked.

The 21st century has, at last, brought a realization of this mistake. Many countries across the globe have now legalized hemp farming and the production of hemp derivatives fully or partially.

With the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (Farm Bill 2018), hemp is now legal across the USA. It is also legal in the EU countries as long as the THC content is 0.2%. It is legal in Canada and several other European and South American countries.

In Asia, China is the biggest grower and supplier of hemp Seed and hemp products across the globe. China also has the longest history of continued hemp production for almost 6000 years.

Hemp against Plastic

People had hailed the 1907 innovation called synthetic plastic as a solution to a wide range of problems. It has now become an unmanageable problem itself. But we do not need any technological innovation to counter it. The hemp plant offers a ready solution.

Hemp fiber can produce a non-toxic and fully biodegradable substitute for plastic. Natural plastic derived from the cellulose fibers in plants has been in use since much before the current petrochemical-based synthetic plastic was invented.

The cellulose fiber in plants is used for producing several varieties of biodegradable plastic. Hemp has about 65-70% cellulose, which makes it a viable plant for natural plastic production.

Henry Ford produced the original Model T Ford in 1941 using hemp plastic panels. This plastic was 10 times stronger than steel in withstanding the impact of a hit without denting.

Substituting synthetic plastic with 100% biodegradable hemp plastic will be a blessing for our environment. Apart from being eco-friendly, hemp is also sustainable.

Why is Hemp Sustainable?

Hemp is sustainable for a variety of reasons. Apart from being a natural source of non-toxic biodegradable plastic, the hemp plant helps in topsoil conservation. Farmers use hemp as an in-between crop to keep their soil fertile.

Hemp cultivation needs 50% less water than cotton. Hemp is totally free from pesticides because it is naturally insect resistant. It is also easy to grow hemp plants organically.

Hemp is a source of paper more efficient than other trees currently used for paper production. One acre of hemp can produce four times more paper than an acre of trees. Incidentally, the first paper ever used was in China, and it was hemp paper.

Hemp is also a source of biofuel. If we use a biofuel derived from hemp, our transportation fuel will be 86% greener than gasoline. It is not for nothing that Henry Ford designed his first Model T hemp plastic car to run on hemp biofuel.

Hemp Plastic and the Chinese Plastic Pollution Riddle

This is an obvious question. If hemp plastic is such an eco-friendly product, why does China still contribute 30% of global plastic pollution? China is the global leader in producing and exporting hemp and its products. It truly seems inexplicable.

But the answer is rather simple, as it happens. First of all, much of China’s plastic pollution is because the country was importing plastic waste from many European countries. China believed that it has solved the recycling problem of single-use plastic. The country started making products out of such plastic.

But the products proved to be below international standards. China had to stop making them. It also banned the import of plastic waste from European countries in 2016. But the aftermath of its import policy is still far from over.

Secondly, because of the long-term ban on hemp and its products in much of the world, hemp plastic is only just beginning to find its way into public consciousness. As of now, hemp plastic is far more expensive than the kind of cheap single-use plastic the world has become used to.

This is another barrier. Global commitment to end plastic pollution is not high enough to make hemp plastic commercially viable immediately. China is not an exception in this. Only a strong global political will to ban single-use plastic within national boundaries will facilitate the uptake of the more expensive hemp plastic.

If world leaders can actually make a concerted move, planet earth will benefit in a number of ways.

The Many Benefits of Hemp

Hemp seeds are highly nutritious and constitute a source of complete plant-based protein. The omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acid content of hemp seeds is precisely the right proportion (1:3) that the human body needs. Hemp seeds are ideal for vegans as no other plant-based protein is so complete.

Dehulled or unshelled hemp seeds are also rich in fiber. Hulled or shelled hemp seeds lack in fiber content. But even hulled hemp seeds are high in nutrition value. These seeds are also extremely versatile, usable in several ways – cooked or raw.

Hemp seed oil is also equally nutritious with a high content of good fats and a low content of the harmful ones. Cold-pressed hemp seed oil preserves the goodness of the oil in its entirety. Like the seeds, the oil derived from hemp seeds is also versatile.

Hemp seed oil is edible and can be taken by itself or as a salad dressing. It is also good for cooking, except for deep frying. Topical use of hemp seed oil can improve hair and skin health. It also has anti-inflammatory properties.

The cannabinoids (CBD) derived from hemp buds, flowers, leaves, and stems have much medicinal potential. CBD oil is particularly good for arthritis. Healthcare professionals have also used it with success to manage anxiety and sleep disorders.

Hemp stalks yield fibers that can be processed into fabric for clothing. Hemp fiber is also used for making ropes and sails. All of these products have natural antibacterial and antifungal properties. Incidentally, canvas used to be made of hemp fabric.

Finally, hemp can also be used as a building material. There are amazing benefits attached to this use as well. This easy to grow plant seems to provide an environmentally sustainable solution to many problems we’ve created for ourselves!

Author Bio

Vishal Vivek, Co-founded Hemp Foundation to increase awareness about the most misunderstood plant on the planet. He believes that we can fight climate change, water crisis and plastic pollution with Hemp.

Times Group recognized him as a legendary entrepreneur and published his biography in "I Did IT- Vol 2" at the age of just 30!

INDUSTRY
Vishal Vivek

Vishal Vivek

Supercharge Your 2020 Resource Portfolio

 

 

 

 

Editors Note from Dudley Pierce Baker - CommonStockWarrants.com

"Marin Katusa and his team do an excellent job of marketing and presenting the views and justification for the continuing bull market in the resource sector. I basically agree with all of their views. I would suggest and I believe that Marin would agree, that investors should consider stock warrants which might be trading on any of the companies being considered for investment."

Katusa's Investment Insights
January 3, 2020
Supercharge Your 2020 Resource Portfolio
By Marin Katusa
The resource sector had a big year in 2019, capped off with a stellar final quarter.

I hope everyone’s portfolio capitalized on it. I know the Katusa’s Resource Opportunities portfolio did.

Below is a chart which shows the performance for major commodities for 2019. You’ll see it was a tale of 2 worlds. Niche metals like vanadium and cobalt took it hard on the chin. Meanwhile oil, soft commodities, and precious metals rocketed higher.

Gold finished up 19% for the year. It was the best annual return for the yellow metal since 2010.

Gold producers are leveraged to gold prices. It means that when gold prices go up, producers commonly go up significantly more. The same can be said with the downside, falling gold prices mean crashing gold stocks.

This year, however, it was a tale of the former. Gold put up a stellar year and gold producers rocketed higher.

Below is a chart which shows the performance of junior gold producers, mid-tier gold producers, and senior gold producers.

Now we’ll explain one of the biggest news stories and drivers that led the producers to significant double-digit gains.

Breaking Down the Largest Gold Deals in 2019

Mergers and acquisitions continued to dominate headlines in 2019. I wrote extensively this year about the Commonwealth Takeover and the continued divestment of non-core assets from Newmont and Barrick.

In 2020, I believe we’ll continue to see the majors consolidate their core holdings.

In addition, I believe we’ll see further consolidation down the food chain.

Given the strength in the gold price and positive outlook, world-class development stage assets and junior producers with expansion potential are likely to become juicy acquisition targets.

Drill Hole Leaderboard: What Were the Best Gold Drill Holes in 2019?

The gold sector drills hundreds of thousands of meters of rock ever year. So, what were the best drill results of 2019?

An FYI… These are simply for educational purposes. The way the “top” interval is calculated uses interval length multiplied by grade.

Gold investors should know, all ounces are not equal. For example, high-grade refractory rock is worth less than low-grade heap leachable rock.

The first table shows the best gold drill holes with a minimum 1-meter interval.

The table below shows the best gold drill holes in 2019 with a minimum interval of 10 meters.
Gold Stock Returns: What Gold Producer had the Best Returns in 2019?

Below are the returns for junior, mid-tier, and senior gold producers.

The minimum production threshold for junior gold producers was 50,000 ounces of production with a maximum threshold of 250,000 ounces of production.

Mid-tier gold producers produced between 250,000 and 1 million ounces of gold…
Senior gold producers produced upwards of 1 million ounces of gold or gold equivalent in 2019…
At Katusa Research, subscribers and I enjoyed a stellar year.

  • Our top gold stock climbed over 250% and we just sold another producer for a 70% win.

I believe in 2020, we will need to be highly targeted in picking winners. It won’t be a “rising tide, lifts all boats” environment.

It sounds simple to buy world-class producers and development stage assets. However, to make that investment decision you need to comb through thousands of production and engineering reports and travel around the globe.

I’ve spent nearly 2 decades as a professional investor in the resource space. I’ve had my boots on the ground in over 100 countries and flown a million air miles.

My Rolodex of experts and management teams is incomparable to others in the sector. You can’t replicate that type of education by reading a resource magazine or a company PowerPoint.

I am pumped for 2020 and I know many of my subscribers are as well. If you want to get access to all my best ideas and investments, get a head start and consider a subscription to Katusa’s Resource Opportunities.

Regards,

Marin

Precious Metals Companies And Stock Warrants

December 25, 2019
By Dudley Pierce Baker
Founder - Editor
Common Stock Warrants
Junior Mining News

Happy Holidays To All and perhaps an idea for you heading into 2020.

There are many stock warrants trading on companies in the Precious Metals sector.

Perhaps you remember the name Precious Metals Warrants which we founded in 2005?

That was a great name at the time as resource companies and stock warrants on those companies did well, very well.

That time is here again as I anticipate soon, that gold, silver and mining shares and of course the warrants trading on those shares to rise substantially creating many 500% and 1,000% gains, perhaps much more.

In 2013 we changed our name to Common Stock Warrants as expanded our stock warrant database service to include all warrants trading in the United States and Canada and in all industries and sectors.

Many of my subscribers are primarily interested in the resource sector and currently there are many warrants trading on companies in the gold, silver, oil & gas and uranium space. Some are begging to be bought at current prices.

Subscribers to our Gold or Lifetime Subscriptions have much more information at their disposal, with access to my weekly audio and to my personal portfolio, “A Look Over My Shoulder”.

I follow the views and technical analysis of Chris Vermeulen at The Technical Traders and suggest you also visit their website and consider a subscription.

Stock & ETF Trading SignalsI look for 2020 to be a banner year for the resource sector with perhaps many 5 and 10 baggers, i.e., 500% - 1,000% gainers.

GET STARTED NOW!

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Having a US Passport Is No Longer an Advantage

Doug Casey on Why Having a US Passport Is No Longer an Advantage

 

US passport

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

International Man: In recent years, record numbers of Americans are renouncing their citizenship. What is going on here?

Doug Casey: Well, it used to be that having a US passport was a tremendous advantage. But over the years, it’s turned into an albatross around the necks of the people who own one.

America is the only major country in the world that taxes its citizens no matter where they live.

Even if an American moves abroad—he never returns or even sets foot in the US again—he’s obligated to file taxes and, at best, can get a $100,000 or so exemption on earned income.

That makes it extremely costly to be an American. But on top of that, the US government forces Americans to file many forms having to do with their foreign financial dealings. And they’re precluded from buying various assets or investing in various countries.

There are other disadvantages too because of the aggressive foreign policy stance that the United States has taken, certainly since World War II: invading numerous countries.

If a terrorist takes over an airplane or hotel, it’s unlikely that they’re going to want to execute all the Mexicans or all the Latvians; chances are they’ll want to single out people who carry US passports.

Actually, there are no longer any advantages to being an American and lots of disadvantages.

I say that, recognizing that being born and raised in the US, at least up to now, has been a tremendous advantage. But that has nothing to do with carrying the US passport. It’s a fortunate accident of birth, because the US has historically been the freest country in the world, but that is changing.

International Man: Even if Americans leave the US and never set foot in it again for the rest of their lives, the US government still will tax them. It’s the only country in the world that has this type of tax system and can enforce it.

Stock & ETF Trading Signals

The tiny, impoverished African country of Eritrea also taxes its citizens this way. But unlike the US government, it has no means to enforce it. So, it’s not a fair comparison.

What do you make of this?

Doug Casey: That’s right. Of course you can renounce your citizenship, but that’s not particularly easy to do.

It has to be done outside of the United States at a US embassy or consulate. The filing fee is $2,350, and it generally takes a year for them to process the forms. Although the law has changed a couple of times over the years, there’s now a penalty. All of your worldwide assets are assessed, and you have to pay a capital gains tax on the appreciation from whatever your cost basis is.

International Man: Taking a step back, we can see over time that renunciation has become harder and more expensive for Americans.

It used to be free. Then the US government raised the fee to $450. They then increased it to $2,350.

They also instituted the Exit Tax—a tax on unrealized capital gains—and made it increasingly costly.

There are several proposals to make renunciation even more difficult in the years ahead. Perhaps one day it will become impossible.

What’s your take on this?

Doug Casey: There’s no question about it. A couple of years ago, they passed a regulation that, if you’re accused—not adjudicated, but accused—of owing over $50,000 to the US government, your passport can be taken from you. That apparently happened to over 300,000 Americans last year.

I know that for a fact, because I personally know somebody this happened to.

Also, it’s very hard for an American to open a financial account—a bank account or a brokerage account—in almost any other country in the world.

Financial institutions don’t want American business, because, since the US dollar is the world’s currency, the US is in a position to enforce its domestic laws on foreign countries. A foreign bank or broker has to report transactions of its US clients. Nobody wants a US client for that reason. They’re unprofitable liabilities.

International Man: Bankrupt governments always try to control money with capital controls and individuals with people controls.

Take Cuba, for example. After Castro came to power, his government made Cuban citizens apply for exit visas before they left the island. They were not easy to get. The Soviet Union, North Korea, and others have also used similar restrictions.

Preventing people from leaving has always been a hallmark of authoritarianism.

It’s hardly shocking that productive people are fleeing the US tax system. It’s also clear the window to leave is closing.

What does all this signal for the future of the United States?

Doug Casey: The US is on the way to becoming an actual police state. The US government is bankrupt, and the situation is getting worse every year, with minimum annual deficits of a trillion dollars going to two trillion dollars.

The prime directive of any living thing, whether it’s an amoeba, a person, a corporation, or a government, is to survive. And in order to survive, the US government needs more tax revenues. It’s going to make more efforts to keep its milk cows from leaving the country and escaping its tax net.

I have no doubt that the US is behind the various UN efforts to “harmonize” the world’s tax system, so there’s really no place that you can run. And if they move to a completely digital currency, it’s going to be almost impossible at that point to evade their grasp. Using digital national currencies and eliminating physical cash, they’ll know exactly how much you’re earning, how much you’re spending, how much you have. The trend is very bad.

The US government, however, is unique in being able to enforce its will almost anywhere in the world. If you leave a European, Asian, or South American country, there’s really nothing your country can do about it. But the US has actually turned into a global empire—which they’re trying to hold together by force at this point.

Meanwhile, it’s in process of flying apart through centrifugal force. I don’t doubt that within the next 50 years, probably much less, the US is going to break up into autonomous regions or even separate countries. An Hispanic Southwest is certainly going to be one of them. Neil Stephenson’s book, Diamond Age, spells out some possibilities along those lines.

Every day the US Congress is in session, new laws are passed—and every law they pass imposes something else you either must do or must not do. Enforcing that law takes more tax revenue. So of course the beast is going to get bigger and uglier as time goes on. Until it collapses. But that will bring on chaos for at least a while. Which is unpleasant and dangerous.

International Man: Given what we have discussed, what do you suggest people do?

Doug Casey: Your options are becoming more limited all the time.

You could renounce your citizenship, but for purposes of convenience, you’ll need a second citizenship—everybody needs a slave card in today’s world.

I think it’s prudent on the part of anybody, not just Americans, to have a second or third citizenship as a backup, because your passport is not your property—it’s the property of your government, and they can take it away from you.


You’re going to want to have at least one backup. That’s number one.

Number two, while it’s still possible, you’re going to want to diversify your assets to another political jurisdiction. The best way to do this is to buy real estate in a place that you like to spend time in, and have gold or other financial assets put aside in that country or a third country.

But act now and beat the last-minute rush. There are no disadvantages and lots of advantages to doing these things.

Editor’s Note: The political and economic climate is constantly changing… and not always for the better. Obtaining the political diversification benefits of a second passport is crucial to ensuring you won’t fall victim to a desperate government.

That’s why Doug Casey and his team just released a new complementary report, “The Easiest Way to a Second Passport.” It contains all the details about one of the easiest countries to obtain a second passport from. Click here to download it now.

CYPER MONDAY SPECIAL

In the spirit of the day, I have decided to have a special discount on my services which will allow new customers the opportunity to see what I have offered for over 14 years.

Upon signing up, enter the coupon code     gold     to receive a 50% DISCOUNT off of either my Silver or Gold Subscription.

DOES NOT APPLY TO MY LIFETIME SERVICE WHICH IS ALREADY A BARGAIN AT $2,500.

My stock warrants database is a one of a kind, sortable by expiry date of warrants, name of company, symbol and much more.

Included are all stock warrants trading in the United States and Canada, including all industries and sectors.

If not familiar with stock warrants download for free from my website,

“The Stock Warrant Handbook, Your Personal Guide To Trading Stock Warrants”.

THIS OFFER WILL EXPIRE AT 12 NOON ON TUESDAY, DECEMBER 3RD.

Dudley Pierce Baker
Founder - Editor
CommonStockWarrants.com

Why Warrants Are The Worst Of Wagers

Why warrants are the worst of wagers

 

 

First a note from Dudley Pierce Baker, Founder-Editor of Common Stock Warrants.
The title of Mickey’s article caught my attention and at first I was greatly upset. But Mickey, a geologist, is focusing on warrants issued in connection with private placements and I can agree with many of Mickey’s comments. With stock warrants, like options, or LEAPS, it is all about the underlying company. If a company does not execute on its plans or the markets do not cooperate, it is impossible for these financial instruments to increase in value. Here is Mickey’s closing comments on his article (below).

“….I will still consider a financing that features warrants but it must be a compelling story with a group of strategic investors who are demonstrably committed to the company and an orderly market that responds positively to exploration success.

 Otherwise, for any story I like, I can purchase free-trading shares on the open market.”

A warrant is a common financial instrument designed to entice speculators’ participation in a company’s private placement. It grants the participant a fixed price option to acquire another share in the company at a future date. Private placement units commonly consist of a share and a half or full warrant with a one- to a five-year expiration date.I opine that a warrant is a financial instrument that in the vast majority of cases has zero value. There are some obvious reasons why this is true and I detail them in the missive below.But first, I present my own anecdotal evidence:From 2013 to the present, I participated in 35 junior resource company private placements; 23 included an attached warrant. Five were private startups and five were shells, reverse takeovers, or spin-outs that came without a warrant. Two of the placements that had no warrant were secondary financings for an RTO and a spinco, and both were priced at significant discount to the market.Folks, here’s the sad truth about these 23 warrant speculations:

  • Thirteen have expired out-of-the-money.
  • Four were out-of-the-money but at my request (or insistence) prior to expiry, have been extended for another year.
  • Another two are currently out-of-the-money but have not yet expired.
  • Four were in-the-money and were exercised.

So with hope and perhaps a prayer (if you are religious), the jury is still out on six warrants.

That said, of the 17 warrants that are said and done, only four were exercised and sold at a profit; that’s less than 25% winners!

Rest assured that I am not alone in my recent history of junior resource speculations. In several discussions with other professional speculators, we reached a general consensus that only one in every four or five warrants are in-the-money and exercised prior to expiry.

So let’s explore some reasons for this abysmal record. Certainly, macroeconomic factors have been important:

  • Gold peaked in Q3 of 2011, maintained a robust price thru late 2012, went into a severe decline from early 2013 until early 2016, and then was relatively flat from mid-2016 until mid-May of this year. Its bull market run is currently of less than five months duration.
    • Junior resource stocks peaked in Q1 of 2011, declined in a bear market thru Q1 of 2016, and broadly mimicked the gold price until mid-Q2 2019. Despite a 17% gain in gold since mid-May, the bad market for juniors is unabated with the TSXV Index hitting a year-to-date low at Friday’s close.

That said, the price of gold and the performance of the junior stock market are merely a part of this story.

I submit there is a fundamental flaw in the standard equity financing model and structure that demands private placement units include a share and a warrant. My reasoning is outlined below:

  • Many institutional investors, funds, and brokers take positions in a private placement with plans to sell into the market once the four-month hold is over and there is sufficiently liquidity to off their entire positions.
  • Their purpose is to shed all risk by breaking even on the shares and retain the warrants as a call on the company’s future upside.
  • These stock dumps often cause a company’s share price to spike once free-trading begins then crater when the generated liquidity dries up.
  • Warrants that remain out-of-the-money serve as an overhang on the stock and become strong resistance to a higher share price, particularly when expiration dates are near-term.
  • This resistance often begets another equity placement priced below the existing warrant strike price.
  • In a bear market, warrant overhangs can lead to a series of dilutive private placements at lower and lower prices and to the detriment of the company’s committed, early-stage shareholders.
  • Some warrants are free-trading upon exercise and some have a four-month hold restriction. According to a trusted broker, this determination is made by the lawyers that the company chooses to retain.
  • Moreover, if you are an American resident, the new stock certificate comes burdened with a US-restricted legend that requires clearance before the stock can be sold. It is a legal, regulatory, and bureaucratic process that involves the company, a broker, a lawyer, and a transfer agent; fees of up to $500 are billed to the shareholder.
  • The legend removal process results in an additional hold period of four to six weeks (or more) before the stock can be sold and its exercise cost recouped.

Folks, the gist is this: Private placement warrants seldom reward speculators with the opportunity they envision. Moreover, unexercised warrants often present a significant hindrance to a junior company’s share price, share structure, and future financial fortunes. .

At this juncture, I am only interested in early-stage financial opportunities in properly-constructed private startups, clean shell companies with well-constructed structures, and/or reverse takeovers of the above.

I assume significant risk with a five-plus month trading hold on every private placement. For the reasons outlined above, I do not want a warrant attached on the term sheet. If you really want to attract my hard-earned American dollars, I strongly suggest financing at significant discount to the market price.

To wit: Warrants are often the worst of wanton and wasted wagers and seldom have future value.

I will still consider a financing that features warrants but it must be a compelling story with a group of strategic investors who are demonstrably committed to the company and an orderly market that responds positively to exploration success.

Otherwise, for any story I like, I can purchase free-trading shares on the open market.

Ciao for now,

By Mickey Fulp Contributing to kitco.com

The US Economy: All Roads Lead To Gold


 

Stewart Thomson
email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com
email: admin@guswinger.com

Nov 19, 2019

  1. Top US politicians describe the US economy as the “mightiest of all time”.
  2. Please click here now . Houston, we have a problem! The next tariff tax deadline is now only about three weeks away.
  3. While Trump’s diehard fans may want him to hike these taxes again if China doesn’t “play ball”, massive FOREX liquidity flows suggest that the world’s biggest money managers are becoming extremely concerned about the level of risk in the US economy.
  4. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. American GDP growth has literally incinerated (from what I predicted would be a 5% peak as the tariff taxes were launched), and this dollar versus yen chart shows a massive bear wedge pattern in play.
  5. That bear wedge is ominous. It suggests giant bank FOREX traders believe something is about to go badly wrong with the US economy… more wrong than the horrific sub 1% GDP growth in play now!
  6. Trump’s initial platform of tax cuts, law and order, and deregulation was awesome. It created surging markets (both gold and stocks), a positive vibe for citizens, and solid GDP growth.
  7. That platform has been replaced with macabre QE and negative rates worship, turning a blind eye to a skyrocketing deficit, and a crazed attempt to boost growth with tariff taxes… and it’s all happening as the world de-dollarizes at an ever-faster rate.
  8. Stagflation is emerging, and some economists are forecasting that in 2020 corporate earnings and revenue growth will both come in at the sub 3% marker. Debt would surge in that scenario.
  9. While the economy wallows in a tariff tax and debt quagmire, stock market investors have been repeatedly saved by the Fed.
  10. Top earners pay 50% capital gains tax, which arguably makes the government the main beneficiary of upside stock market action. This is, quite frankly, insane.
  11. The alternative, a democrat administration, would be even worse news for most people with stakes in America.
  12. It’s unknown how Jay Powell would respond to a fresh hike in tariffs in December. He might cut rates and do more “QE that is not QE”, but what if he doesn’t?
  13. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. The bottom line is that it doesn’t look good for America and most of the West, and that’s why there’s a massive launch pad pattern in play on the weekly gold chart.
  14. I’ve dubbed that pattern as “Michelangelo”, because it’s so enormous and technically aesthetic.
  15. My base scenario for 2020 is that the US economy muddles along, Trump doesn’t launch any more significant tariff taxes, and the Fed is likely to step in and keep the stock market boats afloat if they start sinking again.
  16. My base scenario sees gold and related items again outperform all other major asset classes in 2020, but with the bull wedge pattern on the weekly chart becoming more of a gentle reactive drift.

  17. I give that scenario 70% odds, leaving a 30% chance that in three weeks Trump hikes tariffs, Powell does nothing, the stock market crashes, and gold stages a vertical blast towards $1900.
  18. In that more dire scenario, there would be a breakout from the bull wedge, and gold would stun most investors with the intensity of its upside price action.
  19. Whichever scenario prevails, gold and related assets are the most important place to be invested, for maximum upside action.
  20. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. In the short-term, I’m looking for gold to stage a double bottoming event, and that could mark the end of the current reaction.
  21. What happens with tariff taxes in the next three weeks will likely determine whether gold moves down to significant support at $1397 and bottoms there, or bottoms at current $1465 support.
  22. A move above $1566 for bullion is probably the biggest game changer for gold and silver stocks since the 1970s. It turns many miners into cash cows and probably unleashes a frenzy of stock buybacks and takeovers.
  23. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. The weekly gold bullion chart is aesthetic, but so is this short-term GDX chart. A bull wedge pattern is in play and a breakout seems imminent. The reaction has been orderly, and now there’s a buy signal in play on my 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator.
  24. Please click here now . Double-click to enlarge. A breakout from the bull wedge on the GDX daily chart likely drives a breakout over $30 on the weekly chart. That opens the door to a mighty surge into my $52 target zone!

Thanks!

Cheers
st

Nov 19, 2019
Stewart Thomson
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com
email to request the free reports: freereports@gracelandupdates.com

Global Endgame Has Started, Gold Rush In The Making

GLOBAL ENDGAME HAS STARTED, GOLD RUSH IN THE MAKING. EGON VON GREYERZ TALKS TO RONALD STÖFERLE

November 18, 2019
by Egon von Greyerz

 

 

 

Ronald Stöferle of Incrementum & the “In Gold We Trust” report and Egon of Matterhorn Asset Management, discuss at the Precious Metals Summit in Munich, Germany, the massive risks of the world’s financial system.

The two precious metal experts, share their view about how to deal with the profound downside threats and its implications for the global economy, further:

  • Global financial risks have never been greater
  • How to analyse and understand the very severe  downside prospects we face
  • Endgame started with dire implications for stocks, real estate, debts and politics
  • Gold 7th sense of the financial markets, sniffed out early recessionary and inflationary warnings in the recent up move
  • Central banks panic mode statements hint at the rotten nature of the world’s financial system
  • Central banks are on a gold buying spree to prepare for a new currency system
  • European banks are totally bankrupthelicopter money and MMT are guaranteed
  • First innings of a bond market implosion, skyrocketing interest rates and inflation to follow
  • Negative bond yields result in guaranteed losses. Liabilities will never be repaid
  • Huge rush into Gold about to start, as it hits the front pages
  • Financial and psychological preparations are absolutely key
GLOBAL ENDGAME HAS STARTED, GOLD RUSH IN THE MAKING. EGON VON GREYERZ TALKS TO RONALD STÖFERLE

 

 

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Matterhorn Asset Management’s global client base strategically stores an important part of their wealth in Switzerland in physical gold and silver outside the banking system. Matterhorn Asset Management is pleased to deliver a unique and exceptional service to our highly esteemed wealth preservation clientele in over 60 countries.