Exclusive Comments from Marc Chandler – Fri 7 Jun, 2019

Recapping the ECB meeting and NFP jobs data

With all the market volatility and moves in the bond markets the ECB meeting this week has been largely ignored. Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and editor of the Marc to Market blog joins me to address some of the key points that came out of that meeting. We also recap the weak jobs number today and more importantly the market moves.

Click here to visit Marc’s blog – Marc To Market.

Exclusive Comments from Marc Chandler – Mon 8 Apr, 2019

Looking Ahead To ECB Policy, Earnings Season, and The Oil Price

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx and editor of the Marc To Market website joins me for a look ahead to the ECB meeting and upcoming earnings season. He also outlines the geopolitical issues that are helping to drive the oil price higher.

Click here to visit arc’s free blog for valuable daily content.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 8 Apr, 2019

A Look Ahead To Central Bank News This Week and The Opportunities In Energy Stocks

Chris Temple, Founder of The National Investor joins me today to share his outlook for the ECB meeting and Fed minutes all scheduled this week. While not expecting any major surprises the fact remains that they will both drive home the fact that these central banks are more dovish than 6 months ago. We also touch on the oil price rise and the fact that the energy stocks continue to lag. Chris outlines some of the areas within energy stocks that he sees the opportunity in.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more information on his newsletter and some valuable free content.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Mon 8 Apr, 2019

A Look Ahead To Central Bank News This Week and The Opportunities In Energy Stocks

Chris Temple, Founder of The National Investor joins me today to share his outlook for the ECB meeting and Fed minutes all scheduled this week. While not expecting any major surprises the fact remains that they will both drive home the fact that these central banks are more dovish than 6 months ago. We also touch on the oil price rise and the fact that the energy stocks continue to lag. Chris outlines some of the areas within energy stocks that he sees the opportunity in.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more information on his newsletter and some valuable free content.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 8 Mar, 2019

The Slow Dull Ache Will Continue

Chris Temple joins me today to recap the weak jobs data and the ECB statement from yesterday. Overall the global slowdown continues and central banks are more than a little worried about it.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more market commentary and information on his newsletter.

Raghee Horner – SImpler Trading – Thu 7 Mar, 2019

Trade Deficit Data and Central Banks Around The World More Dovish

Raghee Hornor, Future and Currency Expert at Simpler Trading joins me to recap the growing trade deficit data as well as the Bank of Canada and ECB statements all from yesterday. As the US trade deficit continues to grow we are also seeing the central banks around the world turn more dovish. Although the Bank of Canada and ECB are on hold they are in a more dovish hold than the Fed. All this data and news needs to be filtered to determine what is driving the markets and even more so sentiment.

Click here to visit the Simpler Trading website to follow along with Raghee’s trade.

Peter Boockvar Insights – Wed 6 Mar, 2019

Important Data and News Of Today – ADP Numbers, Trade Deficit, and ECB Statement

Below is a breakdown courtesy of our good friend Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. He breaks down the key data released today which include ADP job numbers, the ever widening trade deficit, and the ECB’s statement this morning.

This post was taken off of Peter’s The Boock Report website. Click here to visit the site and follow along with all the other data and news.

ADP said the private sector added a net 183k jobs in February, not far off from the estimate of 190k. Due to benchmark revision over the past 12 months, January was revised up by 87k to 300k but that was given back over the prior months in 2018. Of note, small companies slowed their hiring with those with less than 20 employees shedding 8k jobs, the first time jobs here were trimmed since December 2016. ADP said “There was a sharp decline in small business growth as these firms continue to struggle with offering competitive wages and benefits.” For the jobs picture overall, Mark Zandi added this, “The economy has throttled back and so too has job growth. The job slowdown is clearest in the retail and travel industries, and at smaller companies. Job gains are still strong, but they have likely seen their high watermark for this expansion.”

The services sector added 139k vs more than 200k in the two prior months and is the 2nd least since last April. The goods side contributed 44k with construction hiring totaling 25k and manufacturing adding 17k.

Bottom line and smoothing out all the revisions, the 3 month average in job gains is still a solid 244k vs the 6 month average of 218k and 12 month average of 220k. If Zandi is right though and the slight upward trend in jobless claims is a tell, assume job hiring trends are closer to the 200k level than what was seen in December and January. The ADP figure today is about right in line with what the private sector estimate is for Friday’s BLS report at 180k. Lastly, keep in mind that jobs data typically lags.

The December trade deficit widened to $59.8b, about $2b higher than expected and November was revised up by $1b. This is the widest trade deficit since October 2008. Exports fell 1.9% m/o/m to the least since February 2018 and reflecting the global slowdown. Imports rose 2.1% m/o/m but after falling by 2.8% in November. Bottom line, a 10 yr high in the trade deficit will lead to a trimming of Q4 GDP estimates.

TRADE DEFICIT

Bloomberg News is reporting that “ECB officials are poised to cut their economic forecasts by enough to justify another bout of loans for banks, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” These loans are in the form to Targeted Long Term Refi Operations and will mostly be used to refi what is coming due next year. The ECB meets tomorrow and they already have a balance sheet that is 40% of GDP and of course NIRP. There is really not much more they can do to deal with an economy that is slowing to almost flat line. As this is not unexpected, the euro is little changed but the inflation cut is sending European bond yields lower. The German 10 yr bund yield is down by 3 bps to just .14%. This in turn is leading to a rally in US Treasuries with the 10 yr yield approaching 2.70%. The ECB is now in a desperate situation.

Exclusive Comments from Marc Chandler – Mon 4 Mar, 2019

Looking Ahead This Week – ECB Meeting, Jobs Data, and A Wild Market Reversal

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex joins me today to look ahead to the major news and data points this week. The ECB meets on Thursday which could shed more light on how worried they are about the overall Eurozone economy. On Friday we get the jobs numbers for February. Watch the wage growth number most closely as Marc thinks we could see a little pop, which impacts core inflation. Finally we discuss the market moves at the tail end of last week and the reversal in US markets today.

Click here to visit Marc’s free blog – Marc To Market. I visit the site everyday to catch up on what Marc is seeing around the world.

Exclusive Comments from Marc Chandler – Fri 25 Jan, 2019

A Look Ahead To Next Week And US Market Drivers

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex recaps Draghi’s comments from yesterday and looks ahead to the main drivers of the market next week. Currency moves have been all over the place this week with Draghi driving down the Euro yesterday and now a Wall Street Journal story that is driving down the USD. As for next week we have Q4 GDP and the Fed meeting that will have an impact on markets.

Click here to visit Marc’s daily blog – Marc To Market.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Thu 24 Jan, 2019

Don’t Forget There Is Still A Trade War Between The US and Europe

Chris Temple is with us today to share his continued belief that this year is going to be very back and forth in the markets. There is no simple sector or asset that he thinks will be a no doubt trade. Also we heard from Draghi today to remind us that Europe overall is still in a lot of trouble. Part of the issues also stem from the ongoing trade war with the US.

Click here to visit Chris’s site – The National Investor.