Ryan Wilday joins me today for a look into the Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency markets. We start with a comment on the technical set up where Ryan shares his positioning and stops. Next is a general discussion about the safe haven appeal of Bitcoin.
September 27, 2019
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Ryan Wilday, cryptocurrency technician at the Elliot Wave Trader website joined me today to share his new targets for Bitcoin. After the run so far this year he is looking to $13,000 as an immediate upside target with the low $6,000 as a downside target.
A number of headlines over the weekend and to kick off this have focused on the 5 week losing streak for the Dow. Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show joins me to address this comment and weigh in on if this dip is another buy the dip play. We also look to the bond market with falling yields and Bitcoin continuing to run higher.
Bitcoin is back! So say the true believers, even with Friday’s flash crash. But there less there than meets the eye.
Bitcoin has staged a notable comeback from its 2018 crash. From a level of about $4,000 through the month of March, 2019, bitcoin had a two-day 23% spike from $4,135 on April 1, 2019 to $5,102 on April 3, 2019.
Bitcoin then moved sideways in the $5,000 to $6,000 range until May 8, 2019 when it staged another three-day spike from $5,932 on May 8 to $7,255 on May 11, a 22% surge.
Combining the April 1 and May 8 spikes, the bitcoin price moved from $4,135 to $7,255 for a spectacular 75% price rally in six weeks.
By last Thursday morning, it soared even higher, to over $8,300.
This rally was bitcoin’s best price performance since its 83% collapse from $20,000 in late December 2017 to $3,300 in December 2018. That crash marked the collapse of the greatest asset price bubble in history, larger even than the Tulipmania of 1637.
The questions for crypto investors are what caused the recent rebound in the price of bitcoin and will it last? Is this the start of a new mega-rally or just another price ramp and manipulation? Has anything fundamental changed?
If you’re beginning to suspect these are leading questions, you’re right.
Of course, bitcoin technical analysts are out in force explaining how the 100-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average, a bullish sign. They are also quick to add that the 30-day moving average is gaining strength, another bullish sign.
My view is that technical analysis applied to bitcoin is nonsense. There are two reasons for this. The first is that there is nothing to analyze except the price itself. When you look at technical analysis applied to stocks, bonds, commodities, foreign exchange or other tradeable goods, there is an underlying asset or story embedded in the price.
Oil prices might move on geopolitical fears related to Iran. Bond prices might move on disinflation fears related to demographics. In both cases (and many others), the price reflects real-world factors. Technical analysis is simply an effort to digest price movements into comprehensible predictive analytics.
With bitcoin (to paraphrase Gertrude Stein) “there is no there, there.” Bitcoin is a digital record. Some argue it’s money; (I’m highly skeptical it meets the basic definition of money).
Either way, bitcoin does not reflect corporate assets, national economic strength, terms of trade, energy demand or any of the myriad factors by which other asset prices are judged. Technical analysis is meaningless when the price itself is meaningless in relation to any goods, services, assets or other claims.
My other reason for rejecting the utility of technical analysis is that it has low predictive value when applied to substantial assets and no predictive value at all when applied to bitcoin.
If you follow technical analysis, you’ll see that every “incorrect” prediction is followed immediately by a new analysis in which a “double top” merely presages a “triple top” and so on.
Technical analysis can help clarify where the price has been and help with relative value analysis, but its predictive analytic value is low (except to the extent the technical analysis itself produces self-fulfilling prophesies through herd behavior).
That said, what can we take away from the recent bitcoin price rally, putting aside its flash crash for the moment?
The first relevant fact is that no one knows why it happened. There was no new technological breakthrough in bitcoin mining. None of the scalability and sustainability challenges have been solved. Frauds and hacks continue to be revealed on an almost daily basis. In short, it’s business as usual in the bitcoin space with no new reasons for optimism or pessimism.
The second relevant fact is that the bitcoin price has been the target of rampant manipulation by miners in recent years. Bitcoin miners have rising costs of production due to the increasing complexity of the math problems that must be solved to validate a new block on the blockchain.
Bitcoin miners also have large inventories of coins mined in the past that have not been released on the market through exchanges or otherwise.
As a result, miners have huge incentives to pump-up prices, both to cover costs of production and to create demand for undistributed coins. These price ramps are conducted through wash sales, “painting the tape,” joint action, low volume price pumps, and other classic manipulations.
The evidence is strong that this kind of activity has taken place in the past and there is no reason to believe it is not taking place now. As mentioned above, JP Morgan & Chase have estimated bitcoin’s intrinsic value at about $2,400.
The last potential contributor to the bitcoin price spike is simple speculation. Bitcoin buyers who missed their chance to reap fortunes when the price went to $20,000 may see another chance to ride a wave of much higher prices.
Since nothing fundamental has changed about bitcoin for better or worse, some combination of miner manipulation and naive speculation is the most likely explanation for the price action we’ve seen lately. This means the price could just as well crash as rally further.
Nothing has changed in the bitcoin blockchain technology. A use case for bitcoin has yet to emerge (and probably never will). Bitcoin is still unsuitable as an investment although it may work fine for those who just like to roll the dice. Count me out.
A second wave or new generation of cryptocurrencies is now emerging with better governance models, more security, and vastly improved ease of use. These new wave coins represent the future of the cryptocurrency technology. These cryptos have much greater potential to disrupt and disintermediate established payments systems, and financial intermediaries such as banks, brokers and exchanges.
On the one hand, mature cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, ripple and ethereum are showing their inherent limitations and non-sustainability. These cryptocurrencies all have major flaws in terms of investor safety and ease of use.
The solutions proposed invariably involve backing away from the original promise of safe, anonymous transactions. Government authorities are converging from all sides looking for tax evasion, securities fraud, evasion of capital controls and other improprieties.
Second-generation cryptocurrencies have a much greater chance of competing successfully with existing payment channels such as Visa, MasterCard, PayPal and the traditional banking system.
The potential value of these new wave cryptos can be measured by the current franchise value of the institutions that will be disrupted. If these cryptocurrencies can disintermediate centralized financial behemoths like Citibank and the New York Stock Exchange, their value can be measured in the trillions of dollars.
If bitcoin is still unsuitable (despite a recent price rally), where do the opportunities lie in the cryptocurrency space? The answer is that the blockchain is growing up and new tokens and use cases are emerging all the time.
These new opportunities are in permissioned distributed ledgers such as JPMorgan’s payment token and synthetic world money proposed by the IMF. This means that the companies who will benefit most from the rise of new cryptocurrencies are not garage band start-ups, but technology giants such as IBM, Intel and Nvidia as well as financial giants such as JPMorgan and Citi.
Crypto has a bright future. But bitcoin doesn’t.
for The Daily Reckoning
My readers know that I’m a longtime critic of bitcoin. Bitcoin rose from about $2,000 in May 2017 to $20,000 by December 2017 in one of the greatest asset price bubbles in history.
I argued repeatedly that it was nothing but a massive bubble and that the bubble would probably burst when it hit $20,000.
In late 2017 it did.
Bitcoin crashed from $20,000 all the way to $3,300 by December 2018 — an 83.5% collapse in one year and the greatest recorded asset price collapse in history.
The crash of bitcoin was even more dramatic than the infamous collapse of tulip prices in the tulipomania in Netherlands in the early 17th century.
But suddenly, bitcoin is back in the news.
You’ve probably seen the headlines about bitcoin’s return. Bitcoin rose from $3,900 on March 26, 2019, to $8,100 on May 15, 2019, a gain of 52% in less than seven weeks.
Happy days are here again! Bitcoin mania is back!
60 Minutes even ran a feature on bitcoin last night.
Is this the start of a new rally back to the heights of $20,000? That seems highly unlikely.
Early Friday bitcoin plunged well over $1,000 in a massive flash crash, about 10% in one day. Easy come, easy go.
What caused the crash?
It seems that a bitcoin “whale” unloaded a massive holding.
A “whale” is a term for a cryptocurrency investor with a large amount of units, or “coins.” That gives them significant influence on the market control.
It’s been estimated that less than 450 people or entities own 20% of the entire bitcoin market.
And when someone buys or sells a massive amount, prices can swing dramatically, as we saw on Friday.
It is still not clear if the large sell order was deliberate or an accidental “fat finger” error.
Prices have recovered to some extent, and bitcoin’s trading around $7,800 today. But either way, Friday’s flash crash highlights a major weakness of bitcoin. It can all come crashing down like a house of cards, as bitcoin’s 2017–18 hair-raising plunge proves.
As an asset, bitcoin has very little to offer outside of speculation.
Bitcoin still has no use case except for gambling by speculators or the conduct of transactions by terrorists, tax evaders, scam artists and other denizens of the dark web. Bitcoin is still unsustainable due to extreme demands for electricity in the computer “mining” process.
It is still nonscalable due to the slow and clunky validation process for new blocks of transactions on the bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin has no future as “money” because the supply of bitcoin cannot grow beyond a preset amount.
That feature makes bitcoin inherently deflationary and therefore not suitable for credit creation, which is the real source of any system of money. Bitcoin has been subject to continual price manipulation by miners through wash sales, front-running, ramping and other tried-and-true techniques for price manipulation.
The bitcoin infrastructure has been plagued with hacking, fraud, bankruptcy and coin theft measured in the billions of dollars. Bitcoin may go higher from here; it’s entirely possible. But it will then come crashing down again.
What is bitcoin’s intrinsic worth?
JPMorgan Chase has tried to break it down. They examined bitcoin as a commodity.
To arrive at its worth, JPMorgan Chase estimated the cost of producing each individual bitcoin by looking at factors such as electrical costs, computational power and energy efficiency. I mentioned these factors above.
When they crunched the numbers, what number did they come up with?
JPMorgan Chase estimated the intrinsic value of bitcoin at around $2,400. Let’s assume for now that’s accurate, or a reasonable approximation. Then even at $8,000, we can conclude that bitcoin is severely overvalued.
JPMorgan Chase compared bitcoin’s recent run-up to the bubble it experienced two years ago. Even though it is still far from $20,000, if we see another speculative frenzy it could undergo a similar run. But it would end the same way.
The bottom line is I would advise you to stay far away from bitcoin. Do not get sucked in by the hype.
Sadly, some people never learn. And my guess is that many will get burned all over again.
Read on for more.
for The Daily Reckoning
With Bitcoin popping higher the question is being asked if the pop is due to safe haven buying or simply a overdue bounce. Ryan Wilday joins me to share his thoughts on the move higher and where he thinks it could go.
There’s a lot to cover today with Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga Pre-Market Prep Show. We start off with the bounce in Bitcoin and address the comments that Bitcoin is the new preferred safe haven asset. Up next are some comments on Trump’s tweets and how they continue to dominate the short term market moves. Finally we end recapping some of the moves in the recent Uber and Beyond Meat IPOs.
Click here to learn more about the Benzinga Trading Summit in New York on June 20th. Or email Joel at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Ryan Wilday is back to share some of his new targets for Bitcoin. After a boring over 3 months Bitcoin finally started to move higher. There are a lot of rumors about what drove price higher but the more important factor is figuring out if volatility and traders are back playing the sector.