1 2 3 1,000 1,001

The Daily Sentiment Suggests a Major Market Top is Near


The Daily Sentiment Suggests a Major Market Top is Near

 

Bob Moriarty
Archives

Nov 19, 2019

As of November 18th, sentiment for The S&P futures and the Nasdaq Index is approaching nosebleed territory. The infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars on the Fed’s balance sheet since Mid-September has pumped the stock market higher in response. But no matter how big the balloon, if you keep puffing it up, sooner or later it is going to blow. The DSI at 90 for the S&P and 91 for the Nasdaq Index suggests a top is coming soon. Not today but soon.

In addition, the sentiment indicator for the VIX is nearly at a record low at a reading of 10 saying investors show little fear. When the DSI for the stock market indexes is high and for the VIX is low the fireworks are about to begin.

At the very least we should have a correction. If the stock market bubble bursts, life is about to get very interesting. Combined with sheer panic on the part of the Federal Reserve, caution on the part of investors is probably a good idea.

If History Repeats, Gold Is Headed to $8,000

If History Repeats, Gold Is Headed to $8,000 
Contributed Opinion

Source: Jason Hamlin for Streetwise Reports  (11/18/19)

Jason HamlinSector expert Jason Hamlin explores the potential of the current gold bull market by charting the courses of past bull markets.

Gold bull and bear

The gold price bottomed in late 2015 around $1,050 per ounce. It has since advanced to a high of $1,555 in early September, followed by a pullback to the current price of $1,470. Gold is in a well-defined uptrend channel with higher lows and recently higher highs. The breakout above $1,360 this summer was significant and we have seen follow-through buying. The $420 move in the price of gold from the bottom in late 2015 represents a gain of 40% in just under four years.

While this is a respectable gain, it only scratches the surface of the potential move ahead. To understand why, let's take a look at the last two major bull markets in gold.

From 1971 to 1980, the gold price rocketed from a low of $35 to briefly peak at a high of around $850 ($678 high on the weekly chart) for a gain of just over 2,000%. It was closer to 850% in inflation-adjusted terms.


Gold Price, Source

Of course, this massive move was driven by the abandonment of the gold standard window by Nixon, a stampede into gold as a safe haven from double-digit inflation, oil price shocks, a weak dollar, and political instability that made investors fearful and nervous.

Fast-forward to 2001 and we can see that gold made another impressive move from $250 to a weekly high of $1,825 ($1,920 daily) over the course of roughly the same time period. This represents a gain of around 600% in that decade, or 450% in inflation-adjusted terms.


Gold Price, Source

The current bull market cycle in gold is nearly four years old but hasn't broken out of the gates yet. The 40% move higher since the start of 2016 is a modest advance relative to the last two bull markets. The gold price is moving higher today, so the chart below shows a 38% gain since the bottom.

The price would still need to go up roughly 15x (1,400%) to match the 1970s bull market, which would take the price to over $22,000! Or it would need to go up another 5.5x (450%) to $8,000 to match the magnitude of gains from the 2001–2011 bull market.

Put simply, the gold price has an explosive move ahead if the current bull cycle is to come anywhere close to the magnitude of the past two bull cycles.

While we don't have runaway inflation (yet) and we aren't facing a closing of the gold convertibility window as Nixon did in 1971, we do have quite a few factors that should be supportive of the gold price going forward.

These include record debt and deficits, a record-high debt-to-GDP ratio, interest rates dropping toward zero, the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet at twice the pace it was during QE3 (just don't call it quantitative easing!), the Fed intervening in various markets to provide emergency liquidity, a crisis in confidence in governments and political unrest worldwide, the potential for the impeachment of the United States president, elevated geopolitical tensions between world powers, a global de-dollarization movement that is accelerating, slowing economic growth, historically overvalued equity markets, a record low commodity-to-equities ratio and record-high total stock market cap to GDP ratio.


U.S. Debt-to-GDP, Source

If anything, the underlying conditions that caused the gold price to spike 20x in the 1970s could be viewed as even worse today. We have a massive derivatives issue and corporate debt problem that many view as ticking time bombs. This grand experiment with fractional reserve fiat paper money being used as a world reserve currency is likely coming to an end.

As it does, people will move toward forms of money with a limited supply that are not controlled by centralized authorities. Whether this is gold-backed money, digital currency from a tech giant or increased usage of Bitcoin for reserves and international exchange, the legacy financial system is on the way out.

Assuming another ten-year bull cycle for gold, there are just over six years left in the current move and upside of 5x to 15x the current price. In this environment, cash flows for quality mining stocks will absolutely explode and provide investors with leveraged returns. At a modest projection of just 2x leverage, there exists the potential for 10x to 30x returns in gold mining stocks over the next 5 to 6 years!

This is precisely the type of asymmetric trade that we look for at Nicoya Research. If you would like to receive our top gold stock picks, real-time portfolio, monthly newsletter, and trade alerts, you can sign up for the top-rated Gold Stock Bull subscription here.
Read the original article here.
Nicoya Research.

Jason Hamlin is the founder of Nicoya Research and goldstockbull.com and has published investment research for over a decade. He previously worked in data analytics for Nielsen, the world's largest market research firm, where he consulted to Fortune 500 companies including Nestlé, Johnson & Johnson and Del Monte. Hamlin's investment philosophy takes into account political, historical and socio-economic factors to determine macroeconomic trends and isolate the sectors that stand to benefit. He then applies fundamental and technical analysis, as well as proprietary models, to find companies that are undervalued within those sectors. Hamlin is a contrarian, cycles investor and student of Austrian economics.

Want to be the first to know about interesting Gold investment ideas? Sign up to receive the FREEStreetwise Reports' newsletter.

VIX Warns Of Imminent Market Correction

November 17, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

VIX WARNS OF IMMINENT MARKET CORRECTION

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News

When Oil Collapses Below $40 What Happens?

November 15, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

When Oil Collapses Below $40 What Happens?

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News

Technical Studies Indicate Possible Bottom and Support for Gold

Note from Dudley:
Gary Wagner writing on Kitco.com gives us his perspective on gold and the possibility of a bottom being in place. This is Part 3 and he provides links back to Part 1 and Part 2. If Gary is correct this would be a great time for you to make sure you are positioned in outstanding resource companies and/or the stock warrants trading on those companies.

 

Technical Studies Indicate Possible Bottom and Support for Gold - Part 3

 

How To Be A Technical Trader For Gold Mines, Oil, Nat Gas, and S&P 500

November 13, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

How To Be A Technical Trader For Gold Mines, Oil, Nat Gas and S&P 500

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News

Welcome To The Zombie Land Of Investing (Part I & II)

November 12, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

2007 Market Top Compared to 2019 Pattern

Welcome To The Zombie-Land Of Investing (Part I)

Welcome To The Zombie-Land Of Investing (Part II)

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News

Gold Mining Stocks… and the Power of Leverage

Expert: Gold Will Break Its All-Time High


Note from Dudley Pierce Baker, Junior Mining News & Common Stock Warrants

I had the opportunity to visit for several hours with E.B. earlier this year. He is very passionate about his opinions and views on the markets, most of which I agree. E.B. Tucker is also a paid subscriber to my services at http://CommonStockWarrants.com. Perhaps you should also consider a subscription as well because I have many professional investors who want to know which stock warrants are currently trading along with the complete details.

E.B. Tucker

I sat down for half a dozen media interviews earlier this year where I called for $1,500 per ounce of gold in 2019.

In several cases, the hosts nagged me about my prediction, asking if I would stick with it. I did. In August, it hit my target.

Now, the price has retreated a bit since, but gold’s still flirting with $1,500 per ounce, as I write.

Here’s why I’m writing you today: I believe $1,500 is only the beginning for gold.

I expect gold to take out its previous high of $1,900. That’s a 27% gain from here. And I expect that to happen in 2020.

In fact, as I told Kitco News recently, from there I see it hitting $2,200 – about a 47% rise from its current price of $1,492 per ounce.

Today, I’ll share why… and how you can start taking advantage

A Major Gold Rally Is Underway

All of the serious money I’ve made investing came through positioning for a big move and sitting tight. Trading is tough. In and out all the time can work over a short period. But the big gains come from sitting tight and letting the bull market run.

After hitting an all-time high in 2011, the price of gold fell 45% to a low of $1,052 in late 2015.

While the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve experimented with radical money policies, gold stayed stuck. Notice in the chart above it didn’t do much after hitting its 2015 low.

What’s bad for gold is unbearable for gold miners. They commit to projects assuming they’ll sell produced gold for $1,500. Then it falls to less than $1,100. That means the project is bankrupt before it pours the first gold ounce.

That period is over.

I can give you a list of anecdotal evidence as proof. Several large mining firms combined this year in order to survive. These were not bidding war takeovers. CEOs got over their egos and merged to avoid losing their companies entirely.

Political dysfunction and ballooning deficits also set the stage for gold today. The three largest central banks in the developed world recently declared they’ll do anything to stimulate their economies. That’s central bank lingo for “create more money.”

But we need more than strong anecdotes to risk money on the gold sector.

From our view, that’s why the chart of gold is so important. It’s how I determined $1,500 was an important target for gold this year. If it hit that target, which it did, I felt it was a green light to invest more aggressively for higher prices.

The gold chart below goes back to 2014. Notice that after gold hit its low in late 2015 (circled in red), each rally that followed registered a higher low. The pullbacks of 2016 and 2018 (also circled in red) each hit low points higher than the last. To us, this meant it was a matter of time before gold exploded higher.

Breaking $1,500 was the first test. Now, I expect it to correct, which is market speak for rest and get ready for the next leg higher.

That next move for gold will catch mainstream asset managers off guard. As I said above, I expect it to eventually take out its 2011 high. That’s why the current pullback in gold is the perfect time to position for what may come next.

If you haven’t already, the first step is buying some physical gold. If you’re new to gold, start with common 1-ounce coins like the ones offered here by Gainesville Coins.

(I asked Gainesville Coins to create this page as a starting point for Casey Daily Dispatch subscribers who are new to physical gold. We do not receive any compensation from Gainesville Coins for bringing you this offer.)

After owning physical gold, you should consider speculating on select mining stocks, which can provide leverage to a rising gold price.

Let me explain…

Gold Mining Stocks… and the Power of Leverage

The word “leverage” usually means borrowing. That’s not the case at all in the gold market.

If you aren’t familiar with the concept of leverage in gold stocks, here’s a quick example of how powerful it can be…

Say the price of gold rises from $1,300 to $1,400. That’s roughly an 8% gain. If you own physical gold, you’re up 8%.

Now, say a mining company owns a million ounces of gold in the ground, and gold is trading at $1,300. The value of the gold in the ground isn’t simply $1.3 billion (1 million ounces x $1,300 per ounce). Instead, the gold in the ground is worth much less than that, because it will cost a lot of money to extract.

Say it costs the company $1,250 per ounce, all-in, to mine the gold. At a gold price of $1,300, the company has a potential profit of $50 on each ounce of gold.

However, if the price of gold rises only 8% to $1,400, the company’s profits per ounce increase by 200% ($1,400 – $1,250 = $150 profit per ounce). This small move in gold can cause the stock price to increase 40%, 50%, or more.

This is why a small increase in the price of gold can cause a gold stock to soar many times that amount.

It’s happened before…

Gold producers boomed during three separate cycles when gold surged: 1979-1980, the mid-1990s, and 2001-2006.

First up, the king of all gold bull markets: 1979-1980…

Gold more than tripled during this period. But gold stocks more than quadrupled.

Returns of Producers From 1979-1980
Company Price on
12/29/1978
Sept. 1980 Peak Return
Campbell Red Lake Mines $28.25 $94.75 235.4%
Dome Mines $78.25 $154.00 96.8%
Hecla Mining $5.12 $53.00 935.2%
Homestake Mining $30.00 $107.50 258.3%
Newmont Mining $21.50 $60.62 182.0%
Dickinson Mines $6.88 $27.50 299.7%
Giant Yellowknife Mines $11.13 $39.00 250.4%
AVERAGE 322.5%
Gold 214.0%

This wasn’t the only time gold stocks ran further than gold itself…

There was another boom in the 1990s. The average gold producer went up more than 200%…

Cambior rose 124%. Kinross Gold returned more than 190%. And Manhattan Gold & Silver skyrocketed over 760%.

All while gold only rose 8%.

Then, another big boom hit from 2001-2006.

Gold returned 158%, while the average gold producer gained over 400%.

Newmont shot up 270%. Gold Fields soared over 500%. And Goldcorp returned over 800%.

As you can see, an increase in the price of gold (even a small one) can lead to huge returns.

Now’s the Time to Take Advantage

You don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines while the motherlode of all gold rallies gains momentum…

Remember, before owning a gold stock, it’s wise to have some physical gold.

Then, you can speculate on higher gold prices by buying gold miners, which gives you the chance to multiply your money in a gold bull market.

You can look into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which holds a basket of gold stocks.

But the best way to take advantage is by following our advice in my newsletter Strategic Investor. In our core portfolio we have a world-class gold miner that shot up 56% during gold’s move from May to September of this year. This is no penny stock. This multibillion-dollar miner turns a profit and pays a dividend.

The same goes for silver. Our top pick surged 83% over the same period. It too pays a dividend.

In short, now’s the time to strike before gold really takes off.

Just remember, gold stocks are extremely volatile. Like in any industry, the stocks of stronger companies will go up more than those of the weaker ones. As always, never bet more money than you can afford to lose.

It only takes a small stake in the right companies to make a fortune as gold prices rise.

Regards,

[signature]

E.B. Tucker
Editor, Strategic Investor

CREDIT BUBBLE POPPING

November 4, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

Warning Credit Delinquencies To Sky Rocket In 4th Quarter 

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News

Divergence Of Gold And Bitcoin – Which Represents A True Safe Haven?

October 24, 2019
Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

 

 

 

Note from Dudley - These Guys Are Good:
Chris and his team are providing investors with a great road map for the direction of the markets, which is why I am also a paid subscriber to TheTechnicalTraders services and encourage you to consider a subscription as well, The ideal service to supplement your other subscriptions as well as my CommonStockWarrants.com.

Divergence Of Gold And Bitcoin - Which Represents A True Safe Haven?

Investors don’t forget the great opportunities available with stock warrants which will increase your potential gains and greatly decrease your investment cost by at least half.

E.B. Tucker with Casey Research, recently referred to Dudley as ‘the top expert in the field with over 40 years of experience‘ with stock warrants.

“I also encourage you to check out the work from our friend Dudley Baker. Dudley is the founder and editor of Common Stock Warrants. He’s been trading warrants for 40 years and has developed an exclusive database of all stock warrants trading in the U.S. and Canada. We’re paid-up subscribers as well.”

A few examples for you to see the power and leverage of using stock warrants.

Stock Warrants – Power Point Presentation

 

Jeff Baker
Senior Analyst – Admin/Web Developer
B.Sc. Geological Sciences (UTEP)
Common Stock Warrants & Junior Mining News