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Canadian Dollar May Be Setting Up For An Upside Breakout

Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe a current pennant/flag formation in the Canadian Dollar is suggesting an upside breakout move may be setting up over the next 5~7+ days.  Recently, the Canadian Dollar has weakened from 0.76875 to lows near 0.74375.  Current price rotation is almost perfectly aligned with Fibonacci Price theory suggesting that the recent failure to establish any new lower price level (highlighted on this chart in MAGENTA), suggests a tightening price range as the current pennant/flag formation completes over the next 5~7+ days.  It is our belief that as long as the current price level stays above the 0.74375 level throughout the completed pennant apex, an upside price break is very likely.

Skilled traders may look at this opportunity for an incredible 200+ pip upside price swing.  We believe the current downward price trend will be the last opportunity to target lower prices before the upside breakout occurs.  The next 3~5 days will likely see prices move a bit lower, targeting the lower support channel before the breakout rally begins.

Interestingly enough, this move in the Canadian Dollar aligns with our Gold/Silver research suggesting an April 21~24 date as a major bottom/basing date.  Could it be that some currency fluctuation or global market event will drive bigger moves in many of the major currencies while pushing traders into the precious metals markets at the same time?  We’ll know more as we get closer to the April 21~24 date, but right now we believe all the tea leaves are aligning for some type of bigger move in later April and skilled traders should begin positioning their trades accordingly.

If you want to learn how valuable a team of dedicated researchers and traders can be to your bottom line, visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and profit from these moves.  We believe you won’t find anything like our proprietary research and trading triggers anywhere else on the planet.  Do yourself a favor and read some of our recent research posts to see just how valuable we can be to your future – then consider supporting our team and effort to assist you.

Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist

Chris Vermeulen – The Technical Traders – Wed 3 Apr, 2019

Oil Nearing Resistance But Stocks Lagging – Sounds Like A Lot Of Commodities

Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders shares his thoughts on the energy markets, including oil and natural gas. As oil nears resistance we could see a short term pullback but overall the continuation of a range bound market. The stocks continue to lag which sure sounds like a lot of other commodities…

Click here to visit the Technical Traders website and follow along with Chris’s calls.

ADL Predictions For Price Of Gold

As we’ve been suggesting for months, expect continued moderate price weakness in Gold and Silver through most of April 2019 and possibly into early May 2019 before a strong price rally will setup and push Gold prices well above $1500 before the end of 2019.  Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive price modeling system has been calling for this move for many months (see the chart below).  This advanced predictive price modeling system is suggesting that in May/June of 2019, we will likely see a bigger price rally unfold in Gold and Silver which may be paired with some type of geopolitical or global economic event.  See this article for more details.

Gold rallies on fear (in most cases) and the only reason for Gold to really as our ADL predictive modeling system is suggesting is that some renewed level of fear could enter the global markets.  This could be from any type of global crisis event or even a regional crisis event (think Brexit, EU crisis or some other foreign nation crisis).  We believe skilled traders should be actively seeking to identify buying opportunities below $1295 in Gold as we only have about 20 days left before our original bottom/base date of April 21, 2019.

This Gold Monthly chart, below, highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems expectations as well as the three support levels that we believe all Gold traders should be targeting.  Gold is currently within the first target level and an opportunity to buy below $1295 would be an excellent starting position.  Further, any additional opportunity to buy below $1250 should be an incredible opportunity – if it happens.  Lastly, our lowest support level is below $1165.  Although unlikely, if Gold retraces to below this level, then please don’t miss this opportunity to get into additional long positions.

Our ADL predictive price modeling system is suggesting that May & June 2019 will start a bullish price rally in Gold and Silver that should push prices well above $1500 by October/November 2019 – possibly much higher.  Overall, we believe this could be the beginning of a much bigger upside leg in Precious metals and all traders need to be aware of this future price move.

We’ve been suggesting this could be the “move of a lifetime” setting up in the metals because it will likely pair or align with some type of broader global stock market move to the downside.  Our opinion is that May/June are dates that all traders should consider developing very protective positions as the markets shake up and Gold begins this incredible run higher.

Take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members find and execute better trades while keeping them aware of market trends, cycles and key insights using our proprietary predictive price modeling utilities.  We are certain you will find our research above and beyond anything else you’ve seen anywhere on the planet.  Please consider joining our other hundreds of members in developing better skills and finding incredible opportunities for future success while trading with www.TheTechnicalTraders.com.

Chris Vermeulen

Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months.  We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.

Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move.  On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.

Take a minute to read that article and consider this current downside price action as a gift the precious metals markets are allowing for all of us.  This is the move that we’ve been warning about for months – the retracement from the $1315~1320 level that should bottom out near $1240~1265 and will ultimately become the “momentum base” for the future upside move.  Precious metals are starting a move that we predicted many months ago.  Our researchers believe Gold will trade below $1275 for a brief period of time (likely just a few days or weeks) before setting up a broad-based momentum bottom.  Our objective is to “leg into” this setup with a series of long trades for the ultimate upside breakout.

Our research suggests that near the end of April 2019 or in early May 2019, Gold prices will likely begin a strong upside price move that will quickly target the $1500+ price level.  We believe this current price swing will set up as the last real opportunity for skilled traders to accumulate long positions in precious metals while we wait for the April/May breakout move.  Any opportunity to buy near the lower range of our Buy Zones would be an excellent entry position given our future prediction that a massive upside breakout move is just 20~30 days away from starting.

This Daily Gold chart shows just how deep the Buy Zone is for Gold.  Any price activity below $1275 would be a solid entry for skilled traders.  Any further opportunity to add to that position below $1265 is even better.  Ultimately, we believe the $1240 to $1250 level will hold as support for the momentum bottom.

 

This Weekly Gold chart highlights our Buy Zone in broader price perspective.  As you can see, the $1250 level corresponds to a price peak back in October/November 2018.  We believe this level will act as long-term support and that price will bottom between $1240 and $1265 before the upside price swing begins.

This last Weekly Silver chart highlights the fairly narrow Buy Zone in silver that will allow traders to accumulate long position near of just above $14.50.  We believe this $14.50 level will become key support throughout this April 2019 lower price rotation.  Remember, near the end of April or in early May, we strongly believe a new upside price move will take place that will blow through recent highs and prompt a 12 to 25% upside price move.  Our target for Gold is above $1500 (likely $1575 to $1675).  Our upside target for Silver is $17.50 to $19.50 with this first upside leg.  Our opinion is that this initial upside leg could be the start of a much larger and much more profitable price advance – lasting many months.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success with our complete Wealth Building Traders Newsletter with Long-Term investing signals, Position trades, Swing trades, and our pre-market gap fill and spike day trades.

Chris Vermeulen

20 Days Left To Find Buying Opportunities in Gold

Our researchers have been glued to Gold, Silver and the Precious Metals sector for many months. We believe the current setup in Gold is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for skilled traders to stake positions below $1300 before a potentially incredible upside price move.  We’ve been alerting our members and follower to this opportunity since well before the October/December 2018 downside price rotation in the US markets.

October 5, 2018: Prepare for a gold and silver rally

December 9, 2018: Waiting for gold to erupt

Jan 25, 2018: Why everyone is talking about gold and silver

Additionally, our researchers called the bottom in the US equities markets and warned of an incredible upside price rotation setting up just before the actual price bottom occurred on December 24, 2018.

December 26, 2018: Has the equities selloff reached a bottom yet

Our research continues to suggest that Gold and Silver will rotate within a fairly narrow range over the next 3~5 weeks before setting up a likely price bottom near April 21, 2019.  We’ve been predicting this bottom formation for many months and have been warning our followers to prepare for this move and grab opportunities below $1300 when they set up.

This first chart, a Monthly chart showing our TT Charger price modeling system, clearly illustrates the strength of this bullish price trend and the initiation of this trend back in early 2016.  One of the strengths of the TT Charger modeling system is that it establishes a number of key price data points and trend factors.  The background color highlighted ranges show price range breadth and range expansion or contraction.  The dual channel facets show where price is likely to find support and resistance.  The DOT LEVELS show where critical support or resistance is in terms of the overall trend channels.

Right now, we are still in a bullish trend with key support near $1165.  The Dual Channel system is showing the $1260 to $1285 level is currently the most likely active support levels just below current price.  Thus, we could see a move to near these levels over the next 3+ weeks and I would suggest skilled traders jump on this opportunity.  The Range system is showing a current $250~350 price range, thus, any upside price breakout could easily rally within this range and push prices at least $250+ higher than current levels – likely well above $1550.  If range expansion sets up, we could see prices well above $1750.

 

We’ve authored hundreds of research posts over the past 12+ months and the one thing that we continue to mention is that Fibonacci price theory continues to operate on the premise that “price must always attempt to find and establish new price highs or lows – at all times”.  Please keep this in mind as we continue.

Take a look at the TT Charger chart, above, and the raw Monthly price chart, below.  Price must always attempt to find and establish new price highs or lows – so where is price going based on the most recent price rotations?  Let’s review…

After rallying in early 2016 to establish a price high of $1377.50, gold immediately rotated downward to establish a higher low near $1124.50.  The $1377.50 high price was a “new price high” in terms of previous rotational highs while the $1124.50 low was a higher low price rotation point.  Thus, a failed “new price low”.

Since these two price points, Gold has settled into a sideways price channel where new price highs and lows have been attempted, but have failed to breakout out of the existing previous high and low price levels.  As a technician of price, we can immediately identify this as a possible “Pennant or Flag” formation.  With the last “new price level” being a “new price high” we still believe that Gold will attempt to break above the recent high price levels and attempt a much bigger upside price swing.

Our analysis suggests the April 21 date as a critical date for the potential price bottom in Gold and Silver.  Our belief is that this date will like result in a near-term momentum bottom in price.  Where price may fall, briefly, below $1290 and rotate into a “washout low” price rotation.  The opportunity for this move could come 3~5 days before or after the April 21 date.

 

This last chart, a Monthly price chart, illustrating the Pennant/Flag formation in Gold should be the clearest example we can provide that Gold will soon break out to the upside and rally extensively higher if our research and analysis are correct.  The momentum that has built up over the past 2+ years, as well as the global demand for Gold by central banks and by investors as a hedging instrument, could prompt Gold and Silver to rally at least 50~60% in this first upside breakout wave – resulting in $1900 gold prices.  Silver could rally to well above $18~19 in a similar move and the number our researchers believe may become the upside target in Silver is $21.

This big picture chart and technical pattern could still take months to unfold if the price is to test the lower end of the trading range at $1225.  If our analysis is correct, Gold and Silver could begin an upside price breakout shortly after April 21 (very likely to become evident in early May 2019).  The upside potential for this move is at least $1550 in Gold and at least $18 in Silver.

Please understand that any upside breakout in Gold and Silver will likely be associated with general global market weakness including the potential for some type of global crisis event.  This could be related to the EU, BREXIT, China, France or any other nation burdened by debt, dealing with election turmoil or related to social or economic angst.  We could almost throw a dart at a map of the globe and hit some area that is poised for some type of economic crisis.

Gold – Gold chart by TradingView

Our last buy signal for gold and gold miners was in Sept 2018 and subscribers and our team profited from that $100 gold rally. This next opportunity here is to understand that we only have about 20~25 days to search out and isolate the best entry prices we can find in Gold and Silver before our April 21 momentum bottom date hits.  This means we need to prepare for this upside breakout move in Precious Metals and prepare our other open positions for the possibility of extended downside pricing concerns.  If you read our continued research posts, you’ll understand that we believe the US stock market will rotate a bit lower prior to this April 21 date and rally as well.

We believe the US equities markets will become a safe-haven, like Gold, where foreign investors can balance the strength of the US Dollar with the strong US economy and continued equity price appreciation while more fragile nations deal with economic crisis events and debt concerns.  Thus, we believe capital will flood the US markets after April 21 as evidence of these economic concerns drives foreign investors into US equities.

Take a minute to find out why Technical Traders Ltd. is quickly becoming one of the best research and trading services you can find anywhere on the planet.  We are about to launch a new technology product to assist our members and we continue to deliver incredible research posts, like this one, where we can highlight our proprietary price modeling systems and adaptive learning solutions.  If you want to stay ahead of these markets moves and find greater success in 2019 and beyond Join Our Wealth Trading Newsletter Today.

Chris Vermeulen

Hour 1 – The Environment Where Central Banks Are Scared

It was another interesting Fed meeting and statement that caused some serious volatility in the markets to end the week. No doubt a risk off trade has developed as yields fell hard around the world. Be sure to go back through the week and listen to some of the daily editorials posted post-Fed. There’s a lot of good information.

  • Segment 1 – Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global ForEx shares his thoughts on the Fed statement and situation that the central banks are in. Interest rates are historically low, and even negative in many countries, but the global economy continues to slow.

 

  • Segment 2 – Chris Vermeulen, Founder of The Technical Traders has some thoughts on how far the market could breakdown.

 

  • Segment 3 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group weighs in on the precious metals markets and when he sees a recession hitting the US.

 

  • Segment 4 – We get an update from IsoEnergy and the President and CEO Craig Parry. IsoEnergy has been drilling some good exploration holes and looking to continue stepping out through the year. Click here to visit the IsoEnergy website.

Russell 2000 Leads The Way For Technical Analysts

 

The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians.  Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.

Recently, we posted a research article about the Head-n-Shoulders pattern setting up in the $INDU.  Again, the IWM chart is also showing a very clear Head-n-Shoulders pattern with critical resistance near $159.50 and support near $144.25.  Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe this right Shoulder will prompt a downside market move towards support near $144.25 before a downward sloping wedge pattern sets up.  This first downward price leg will setup and congesting wedge formation that will, eventually, break to the upside and drive market prices higher.

We authored a research article about this pattern setup on February 17, 2019.

Skilled traders watch all the charts to assist them in identifying characteristics that can assist them in understanding price moves, key support/resistance levels, and price patterns.  This IWM chart should be on everyone’s radar at the moment.  Where the IWM finds support, so will the other US stock market indexes.

WEEKLY IWM RUSSELL 2000 INDEX PATTERN

 

The IWM setup indicates we may only see a 5~7% downside price swing before support is found.  We’ll have to watch how this plays out over the next few weeks/months to determine if the $144.25 level is true support or if the lower $137.00 level will become support.  Either way, the downside price swing appears poised to unfold over the next few days/weeks – so be prepared.

Please take a minute to visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades in 2019.  We have already positioned our clients for this move and we believe we can help you stay ahead of these markets.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com/FreeResearch/ to read all of our most recent research.

Chris Vermeulen

Best Precious Metals Investment And Trades For 2019

It’s been years since the gold and silver topped out in 2011. We have been waiting for a new bottom form and a new bull market to emerge for nearly 8 years. In this article, I’m going to compare palladium, gold, platinum, and silver and show you which of these precious metals I feel is the best long-term investment and also the best trade for 2019.

The analysis presented below is based on technical analysis using previous significant highs, and Fibonacci extensions. Both of these techniques work exceptionally well for predicting price targets both to the upside and also price corrections to the downside. If you have never used Fibonacci retracement or extensions in your trading I highly recommend learning more about them. I have no doubt it will improve your market price projection targets for your investments. I have found this technique to be the number one best trading tool for projecting future price movements in all asset classes.

The charts below will show to price forecasts for each metal. The first price target is based on the previous significant high that price made between 2000 and the current timeframe. Previous significant highs are typically the first target for the price to reach and that is also our first major upside target for these metals. The second price target I use is based on Fibonacci extensions using stand out lows formed anywhere between 2002 to the current price time and projecting that forward into the future beyond the previous highs shown on the charts.

So let’s get started with the worst precious metal to invest in and work your way down to the best precious metal.

 

#4 PALLADIUM

Palladium, In my opinion, is the worst precious metal to own for 2019. While palladium is used in everything from dentistry to groundwater treatment, Palladium is by far the most versatile precious metal. Only a little while ago palladium was not nearly as popular as it is today due to the incredible economic growth in developing countries especially China. This multi-use metal is steadily growing its importance in the markets hence the strong performance to date.

There is no doubt that Palladium has staged a massive rally from the 2009 lows and also another mega-rally from the 2016 low. But, knowing the best performing investments eventually become the worst performing investments later, let’s take a look at the chart of Palladium and see why I feel as though Palladium is the worst investment metal for 2019.

The monthly chart of Palladium below shows the previous high in price in the year 2000. That high has been broken and now the price has gone parabolic blasting above that level to the 1550 mark. At this point, the previous high target has been breached and we no longer see that as a price target. There is zero upside potential based on the previous high.

The second price target is based off the lows in 2016 using the Fibonacci extension the pullback in 2018 followed by this recent rally. This gives us a price projection of nearly $1500 an ounce. As you can see this perfect bull flag (continuation pattern) has reached the hundred percent Fibonacci measured target of 1500. Therefore I see this upside move as being complete and it is more likely to pull back and correct in 2019 with 0% upside potential. Anything beyond this price level is a bubble which could burst at any time and carries a high level of downside risk.

 

#3 GOLD

Gold is the second worst investment for 2019 when it comes to precious metals in my opinion based on potential upside growth. Keep in mind I am very bullish on the price of gold looking forward but other metals definitely have a lot more profit potential than gold.

As you can see on the monthly chart of gold the previous high was about $1900 in 2011. That level is our first price target for gold upon a breakout of this multiyear basing formation it has been forming since 2013. This makes for a potential gain of 46% in price.

Now if we apply a Fibonacci extension to get our second target we take the low from 2002 to the high in 2011 and bring it back down to the low in 2015. This gives us an upside price target of $2681 an ounce. Based at the current price of gold we could see gold rally 106% over the next year or two.

 

#2 PLATINUM

Platinum is the second best metal for short-term and long-term gains from 2019 and beyond. Looking at the monthly chart you can see the previous high in 2008 was around $2300 based on the current price if we get a move to the previous high it provides a 176% potential gain. Also, notice how the price is testing the major support level forms in 2008 this could act as a very significant double bottom in price as well.

Using Fibonacci extensions we take 2001 low up to 2008 high and back down to the recent low in 2018 or 2009 both are the same price this projected price gives us an upside target of $2659 an ounce. Based on the current price of platinum that gives us the 221% potential gain over the next couple of years.

 

#1 SILVER

The number one precious metal to own in 2019 and beyond is silver. Based on the previous high in 2011 and looking at the current price of silver there is a potential upside gain of 226%. Also, notice how silver is putting in a potential double bottom from the 2015 lows it also goes all the way back on the chart to 2006 through 2010 as a key support zone. Much like platinum, silver is at support and could very easily start a new mega-rally at any time.

Using a Fibonacci extension, we can get our second target for silver based on 2002 low and 2011 high along with the 2015 bottom. This gives us a $59 price target. With the current price of silver trading at $15 an ounce, there is an upside target of 296% potential gain over the next couple of years when silver starts its next bull market. In fact, I recently purchased a couple more silver bars from SDBullion to add to my silver stacks because I like the potential.

 

CONCLUSION:

In short, I feel precious metals should be a part of everyone’s portfolio as a long-term hedge and investment. I see precious metals as an insurance policy in case all hell breaks loose in the financial system and we need to fall back to something with physical value for a short period of time.

With that said, I am a firm believer that you should never overload in one particular investment or asset class. But I do feel certain metals should have a heavier weighting based on their current potential. The more upside potential the more of that metal you should own shares or physical bullion.

How should you invest and trade precious metals? There are a few ways to own metals as a trader and investor. You can own physical bullion rounds or bars and I don’t recommend coins simply because you pay a premium for a design and if metals ever do become a true currency the added value you paid for a design stamped in the metal will be tossed out the window and you lose that value as price will be based purely on weight.

A really simple way to trade and invest in metals are trading the ETFs for each bullion like Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), Platinum (PLTM), and Palladium (PALL). Another and even more simple way is to own the GLTR fund which owns a basket of Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Pallium. Obviously owning precious metals mining stocks is another (GDX, GDXJ, JNUG, NUGT etc..)

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members.  In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

http://TheTechnicalTraders.com

RECENT CLOSED TRADES

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.


Countdown to the Precious Metals Breakout Rally

COUNTDOWN TO THE PRECIOUS METALS BREAKOUT RALLY

March 14, 2019

If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months.  Recently, we called for Gold to rally to  $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern.  We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.

Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver.  Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.

This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks that make up a current resistance level near 1370.  This level is critical in understanding how the momentum base and following breakout will occur.  This resistance level must be broken before the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500.  Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form before April 21 is the “last base” to setup before a much bigger upside price move takes place.  In other words, pay attention over the next 30 days before this move happens.

 

This next Monthly Silver chart is the real gem of the precious metals world.  The upside potential for Silver is actually much bigger than Gold currently.  Any breakout move will likely see Silver push well above $30 per ounce and we just need to watch the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning.  Silver will follow a similar basing patter as Gold.  We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left before this basing pattern is completed.  Again, watch the April 21 date as the key date for the breakout move to begin.

 

Palladium has reached our initial Fibonacci upside price targets.  We expect price to consolidated and potentially rotate near the $1500 price level.  Ideally, price could fall below the $1300 price level and target the $1100 area before finding any real support.  As long as industrial demand continues for Palladium, we expect to see continued upside price activity over the long run.  Right now, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter a bit.

 

Please consider the research we are presenting to you today.  Our predictive modeling systems have been calling the metals markets quite accurately over the past 14+ months.  If our prediction of a momentum base on or near April 21 is correct, then we should begin to see an incredible upside price swing in Gold and Silver shortly after this date.  You won’t want to miss this one – trust us.  There will be time to catch this move when it starts – it could be an extended upside move.  Pay attention and put April 21 on your calendar now.

If you like our research and our level of insight into the markets, then take a minute to visit our site to learn how we help our clients find and execute for success.  We’ve been calling these market moves almost perfectly over the past 18+ months.  Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these swings in price and find new opportunities for skilled traders.  Take a minute to see how we can help you find and execute better trades by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA SHAKES THE GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders

 

March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades.  There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019.  Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%.  Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.

The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating.  It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?”  Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months.  We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up.  We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India.  It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.

(Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.)

 

The economic data released by China points to a very real and excessive economic contraction.  YoY Exports reported as -16.6% vs. expected +6.6%.  YoY imports reported at -0.3% vs. +6.2%.  Trade Balance reported as $4.12B vs expected +26.20B.  Think about these numbers. In some cases, these values represent a -300 to -700% decrease from expected levels.  A recent Bloomberg article suggests the China GDP levels were inflated for the past 9 years or more (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds)

As these new economic numbers work through the news cycle, we’re confident that a fairly large group of global investors are going to catch quite a few investors/traders off guard.  The recent rally in the Asian/Chinese equity markets has prompted a bit of complacency and upward price expectations by investors.  The rally, shown below, from early 2019 till now resulted in a +17.7% increase over a period of about 60 days.  We are confident this upside move attracted the attention of many global investors who likely piled into the trade expecting a US/China trade deal over the past 2 weeks to relieve any upside pricing pressures.  Now that the data is showing greater risk in the Chinese markets and how that may extend out to other regional markets becomes the top consideration for these investors.

The fact that the Chinese markets may contract by at least 8~15% over the next few weeks must concern larger investment firms and traders.  Depending on their leverage, this could be a complete disaster for some.  Any extended protectionist move by China and/or additional pressures on the credit/debt balance could push a new wave of defaults and extended downward pricing pressures.  Our researchers believe a move targeting recent October/December 2018 lows is not out of the question.

Custom Index – Custom Index chart by TradingView

As we’ve been suggesting in our recent research posts, we believe a new capital shift is taking place.  We believe investors were willing to take a risk to jump back into certain market segments where new valuation levels presented some clear opportunities (China, Europe, and others).  Yet, we also know that extended risks could quickly change this stance.  As renewed fear enters the global markets, it is very likely that a renewed “revaluation event” will take place and investors will start to scramble for safety.  This is the capital shift that we have been warning about – a dramatic shift of investment capital away from emerging markets and foreign opportunities move into US Blue Chips and Mid-Caps because of the true US Dollar based safe-haven investments.

Should our expectations of this dramatic capital shift accelerate over the next few months, we’ll likely see the current downward price rotation in the US stock market end sometime in early April as global capital resettles into the US equities.

In the next segment of this research post, we’ll share some critical data that may become a catalyst for the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place.

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Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.