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Countdown to the Precious Metals Breakout Rally

COUNTDOWN TO THE PRECIOUS METALS BREAKOUT RALLY

March 14, 2019

If you have been following our research over the past few months, you already know that we’ve called just about every major move in Gold over the past 14+ months.  Recently, we called for Gold to rally to  $1300 area, establish a minor peak, stall and retrace back to setup a momentum base pattern.  We predicted this move to take place back in January 2019 – nearly 30+ days before it happened.

Now, we are publishing this research post to alert you that we are about 15~30 days away from the momentum base setup in Gold which will likely mirror in Silver.  Thus, we have about 20+ days to look for and target entry opportunities in both Gold and Silver before this momentum bottom/base sets up.

This Monthly Gold chart, below, shows you the historic peaks that make up a current resistance level near 1370.  This level is critical in understanding how the momentum base and following breakout will occur.  This resistance level must be broken before the upside rally can continue above $1400, then $1500.  Ultimately, the momentum base we are expecting for form before April 21 is the “last base” to setup before a much bigger upside price move takes place.  In other words, pay attention over the next 30 days before this move happens.

 

This next Monthly Silver chart is the real gem of the precious metals world.  The upside potential for Silver is actually much bigger than Gold currently.  Any breakout move will likely see Silver push well above $30 per ounce and we just need to watch the $18.90 level for signs the breakout is beginning.  Silver will follow a similar basing patter as Gold.  We expect only about 30 days of buying opportunity left before this basing pattern is completed.  Again, watch the April 21 date as the key date for the breakout move to begin.

 

Palladium has reached our initial Fibonacci upside price targets.  We expect price to consolidated and potentially rotate near the $1500 price level.  Ideally, price could fall below the $1300 price level and target the $1100 area before finding any real support.  As long as industrial demand continues for Palladium, we expect to see continued upside price activity over the long run.  Right now, we are expecting a price contraction as global industrial demand may falter a bit.

 

Please consider the research we are presenting to you today.  Our predictive modeling systems have been calling the metals markets quite accurately over the past 14+ months.  If our prediction of a momentum base on or near April 21 is correct, then we should begin to see an incredible upside price swing in Gold and Silver shortly after this date.  You won’t want to miss this one – trust us.  There will be time to catch this move when it starts – it could be an extended upside move.  Pay attention and put April 21 on your calendar now.

If you like our research and our level of insight into the markets, then take a minute to visit our site to learn how we help our clients find and execute for success.  We’ve been calling these market moves almost perfectly over the past 18+ months.  Learn how our research team can help you stay ahead of these swings in price and find new opportunities for skilled traders.  Take a minute to see how we can help you find and execute better trades by visiting www.TheTechnicalTraders.com today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA SHAKES THE GLOBAL EQUITIES MARKETS

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders

 

March 8th, 2019 may gain some level of infamy over the next few decades.  There were two big numbers released on this day, the current Chinese economic data and the US Jobs data for February 2019.  Both numbers fell drastically lower than analysts expected and the global stock markets dropped in pre-market trading by more than 1%.  Yet, something very interesting transpired through the trading day – a recovery rally.

The Chinese economic data was particularly devastating.  It leads our researchers to ask a very critical question, “is this going to be an orderly contraction or is this contraction going to extend into more chaos?”  Our research team believes the economic contraction in China will extend out into much of Asia and nations participating in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) over the next 3~6+ months.  We believe a natural progression of “protectionist processes” will begin to take place throughout many of these nations as the money spigot from China dries up.  We believe this credit contraction and economic downturn will result in an extended repositioning of priorities, assets, and valuations throughout most of SE Asia and India.  It could extend into certain areas in Europe and Arabic nations.

(Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.)

 

The economic data released by China points to a very real and excessive economic contraction.  YoY Exports reported as -16.6% vs. expected +6.6%.  YoY imports reported at -0.3% vs. +6.2%.  Trade Balance reported as $4.12B vs expected +26.20B.  Think about these numbers. In some cases, these values represent a -300 to -700% decrease from expected levels.  A recent Bloomberg article suggests the China GDP levels were inflated for the past 9 years or more (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds)

As these new economic numbers work through the news cycle, we’re confident that a fairly large group of global investors are going to catch quite a few investors/traders off guard.  The recent rally in the Asian/Chinese equity markets has prompted a bit of complacency and upward price expectations by investors.  The rally, shown below, from early 2019 till now resulted in a +17.7% increase over a period of about 60 days.  We are confident this upside move attracted the attention of many global investors who likely piled into the trade expecting a US/China trade deal over the past 2 weeks to relieve any upside pricing pressures.  Now that the data is showing greater risk in the Chinese markets and how that may extend out to other regional markets becomes the top consideration for these investors.

The fact that the Chinese markets may contract by at least 8~15% over the next few weeks must concern larger investment firms and traders.  Depending on their leverage, this could be a complete disaster for some.  Any extended protectionist move by China and/or additional pressures on the credit/debt balance could push a new wave of defaults and extended downward pricing pressures.  Our researchers believe a move targeting recent October/December 2018 lows is not out of the question.

Custom Index – Custom Index chart by TradingView

As we’ve been suggesting in our recent research posts, we believe a new capital shift is taking place.  We believe investors were willing to take a risk to jump back into certain market segments where new valuation levels presented some clear opportunities (China, Europe, and others).  Yet, we also know that extended risks could quickly change this stance.  As renewed fear enters the global markets, it is very likely that a renewed “revaluation event” will take place and investors will start to scramble for safety.  This is the capital shift that we have been warning about – a dramatic shift of investment capital away from emerging markets and foreign opportunities move into US Blue Chips and Mid-Caps because of the true US Dollar based safe-haven investments.

Should our expectations of this dramatic capital shift accelerate over the next few months, we’ll likely see the current downward price rotation in the US stock market end sometime in early April as global capital resettles into the US equities.

In the next segment of this research post, we’ll share some critical data that may become a catalyst for the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place.

If you want to join a group of professional traders, researchers, and friends, take a look at our trading newsletter to learn how we can help you find and execute better trades each month.  We believe 2019 and 2020 will be incredible years for skilled traders and we are executing at the highest level we can to assist our members. We recently close some nice positions UGAZ 30%, NIO 21.6%, ROKU 13%, GDXJ 10.5%. In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success. In fact, we are about to launch our newest technology solution to better assist our members in creating future success.

Our team has 53 years of experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

RECENT CLOSED TRADES

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

DAVID MORGAN: THE COMING ENERGY BOOM

 

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What Commodities and Transportation Are Telling Us – Part I

Our ongoing efforts to dissect these markets and to help educated and inform traders has led us on an exploration path into the general market activities of two leading market indicators; Commodity prices and Transportation Prices.  These two core elements of any regional or global economy are usually about 3~6 months ahead of the general markets.  When viewing the Transportation Index, remember that transportation is key to any growing economy and a healthy economy.  When an economy is doing well, the transportation sector will be busy shipping and delivering consumer product and staples as well as manufacturing equipment and supplies.  When viewing the Commodity Index, remember the Supply and Demand equation where greater demand for commodities needed to manufacture, create, deliver or sell a product will drive prices higher as supply remains relatively constant, prices will increase.

Therefore, the theory of today’s research post is “are Transportation and Commodity prices telling us anything important about the future stock market valuations?”.  Let’s get into the research.

First, the NASDAQ Transportation Index is painting a very clear picture that the upside price move starting near the end of 2016 drove prices well above historical normal ranges.  Even today, we are well above historical ranges originating from the lows in 1998 and including the range expansion from the highs of 2007 to the lows of 2009.  Given the premise that the Transportation Index would be highlighting increased economic activities across the planet and particularly those of more mature economies, one should expect that global trade/economic activity should be near all-time highs.

We would like to point out a defined upward price slope, highlighted by the RED LINE on this chart.  We believe any potential downside price swing will find clear support near the $5025 level (the first upper range level from historic deviation ranges) or near $4690 (the RED LINE support channel).

 

In order to further our research, we’ll take a look at our “Custom Smart Cash Index” which highlights a broad range of global market indexes and weights them in a US Dollar basis.  Obviously, the results of this Smart Cash Index is designed to highlight the total global valuation levels of a variety of mature economies/markets.  We can easily see the volatility range established by the concerns prior to the 2016 US Presidential Elections created a very deep volatility range.  We believe this is important because it establishes a “relative high point” and a “relative low point” that reflects human psychology and expectations.  In other words, we believe the high point in early 2015 reflects an optimistic investor sentiment and the low point in early 2016 reflects a pessimistic investor sentiment.

This range can help us determine if current Smart Cash valuations are reflecting optimistic or pessimistic expectations by determining if the current price is near the lower areas of this range or the upper areas of this range.

Currently, the Smart Cash Index is moving higher after reaching an ultimate low point near December 24, 2018. This would indicate that optimism is increasing in the global markets.  Additionally, The Smart Cash Index has breached a downward sloping price channel, drawn in BLACK.  We believe continued optimism will drive global market valuations higher over time.  Yet, we believe numerous 4~7%+ price rotations will occur in the US Stock Market as the total valuations continue to rise over the next 12~24 months.

What we would expect to find to help confirm our analysis is the price levels of general commodities would be increased to match the renewed optimism we believe is growing in the global markets.  Obviously, if the global economies are doing well and trade/sales are increasing, then we would expect core commodity levels to increase as demand stays strong which we have seen this happen time and time again during economic cycles.

This concludes PART I and how we identify market opportunities for us to trade. Analysis like this has allowed us to generate substantial profits in the past 30 days with UGAZ 30%, NIO 21.6%, ROKU 18%, GDXJ 10.5%. IF you want to know our conclusion on what commodities and transports are telling us then visit our website to read PART II in the next 24 hours.

If you want to learn how we can help you find success throughout this shifting market and throughout 2019 and beyond, then visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn how we help our members create success.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.

Stock Warrants Expired – Feb.28, 2019

Two warrants expired on February 28th, 2019 and were automatically deleted from our current database, see details below.

At http://CommonStockWarrants, we provide our subscribers with the next 5 warrants due to expire as a heads up for their positions.

Subscribers are also provided a list of the last 5 stock warrants added to our United States and Canadian databases.


Warrants Expiring Soon

Company Name                              Symbol       Expiration Date
Canada Jetlines
(formerly Jet Metal Corp)             JET.WT.A        2019-02-28

Rainy Mountain Royalty Corp       RMO.WT       2019-02-28

 

We welcome all investors to join us so you can access our database (listing of all stock warrants) trading in the United States and Canada.

Mexico Refineries showing some signs of life as production numbers rise

Mexico Refineries showing some signs of life as production numbers rise

 

February 27, 2019

Crude oil processing, fuel production showing increases

Mexico’s six petroleum refineries are showing new signs of life: fuel production and crude processing capacity are up and unscheduled stoppages have been reduced to zero.

State oil sector reports seen by the newspaper El Universal show that production of regular and premium gasoline in the third week of February was 86.7% higher than in the first week of January.

Diesel and aviation fuel production also increased, by 98.3% and 68.7% respectively in the same period.

The month-over-month figures are not quite as impressive but positive nonetheless.

Daily gasoline production this month has averaged 192,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to 128,000 bpd last month – a 50% increase – and 153,000 bpd in December. Diesel production was up 32% to 131,000 bpd in February compared to 99,000 bpd last month.

While the signs are promising, the National Refining System (SNR) is still a long way from getting back to production levels seen a decade ago when they reached their highest point in 29 years.

During the last two weeks of this month, automotive fuel production has averaged 213,000 bpd – just 42.3% of the average daily production of 504,100 bpd in January 2009.

With regard to crude oil processing, the six oil refineries achieved an average capacity of 484,000 bpd during January but this month, the figure has increased by 15.7% to 560,000 bpd.

Looking at figures for the first week of last month and the third week of February, the increase is even more impressive.

Crude processing has increased from 309,500 bpd to 664,00 bpd in the period, a 114% surge. However, the figure represents less than 40% of the refineries’ combined processing capacity if they were operating at an optimal level.

Another good result for the oil sector is that there hasn’t been a single work stoppage at refineries this month compared to 40 in January and 48 in December.

According to the oil sector reports, Mexico’s oil production and processing problems were, as of the end of the third quarter last year, primarily linked to “operational problems” at the refineries in Ciudad Madero, Tamaulipas, and Minatitlán, Veracruz.

At the time both facilities were only operating at a minimal capacity.

To improve production and processing capacity across the SNR, an oil sector report said, it was “essential to continue general maintenance and preventative programs” at all refineries.

Petroleum production has been declining in Mexico for years.

Earlier this month, President López Obrador announced a 107-billion-peso (US $5.5-billion) rescue plan for Pemex aimed at reducing the state oil company’s financial burden and strengthening its capacity to invest in exploration and production.

He has pledged to reduce Mexico’s dependency on petroleum imports and part of his rescue plan for the sector includes the construction of a new refinery in Tabasco.

But while the president is optimistic, financial institutions rejected the government’s plan, describing it as insufficient and disappointing, while Fitch Ratings warned that it doesn’t insulate the state oil company against future cuts to its credit rating, which it currently rates at just one notch above junk.

Source: El Universal (sp) 

Our May Stock Market Prediction – Part 1

February 8, 2019 Chris Vermeulen     As we enter the final stage of our market predictions from nearly 5 months ago, we thought it would be a good time to revisit these predictions and to update all of our followers with some timely and, apparently, accurate market data.  We hope that many of you remember our predictions from September 2018 where we called for a 5~8% market decline, followed by a basing market headed into the November 2018 US elections, followed by a deep “Ultimate Low” price rotation before we called for an incredible upside price rally?  The reason it is so important to watch for and understand all of our research is that we are attempting to provide great value and insight to our followers as well as help them protect their open positions from unknown risks. As a bonus to all of this, we are going to include predictions … Continue reading

45 Days Until A Multi Year Breakout In Precious Metals

January 28, 2019 Chris Vermeulen       Today is the day we want to warn our followers that we expect the precious metals to continue to base with a fairly narrow price range for about 45 to 65 more days before upside pricing pressures start to take hold of the markets.  There has been quite a bit of chatter about Gold breaking above $1300 recently.  Many people have been expecting it to move much higher fairly quickly.  We don’t believe that will be the case – but expect it have another significant rally in April, May or June.   Monthly Gold Forecast Chart – Posted October 2018 Back in early October 2018, we shared this chart with all of our followers suggesting that Gold and precious metals would rally to above $1300 near December/January using our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system.  We’ve been suggesting to our followers for … Continue reading

Why Commodities Are Poised for Their Biggest Rally in 50 Years

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Justin’s note: Today, we hand the reins to Casey Research’s in-house commodities expert, David Forest, who says commodities are primed for an explosive bull run.

In fact, as you’ll see, this could be their biggest rally in 50 years… and now is the time to take advantage.

Read on to get all the details, including a “one-click” way to get exposure today.


By David Forest, editor, International Speculator

It’s the most important chart in the resource space today…

And it’s telling us that commodities are primed for their biggest rally of the last 50 years.

Why is this the best setup for commodities in half a century?

• Take a look below…

The chart I’m referring to tracks the S&P GSCI – which tracks prices for 24 commonly traded commodities – relative to the S&P 500. We’ve labeled a few important events on it…

When the blue line on the chart is rising, commodities are getting more expensive relative to the S&P 500 – a good proxy for the U.S. stock market. When the line is falling, commodities are getting cheaper relative to stocks.

As you can see, when commodities are at historic lows relative to stocks [green circles on the chart], it’s been a great time to buy.

For instance, two entry points for investors in the past were in 1971 – after we went off the gold standard – and in 1999, at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Between 1971 and 1974, the S&P GSCI rocketed 371% higher. And from 1999 to 2008, it shot up 454%.

• The opposite is true, too…

History shows you don’t want to be loading up on commodities when they’re expensive relative to stocks.

For instance, the S&P GSCI was at an extreme high relative to stocks [red circles on the chart] in 1990, at the peak of the Gulf Crisis, when Saddam Hussein’s army was rolling into neighboring Kuwait. That was a terrible time to be a commodities buyer. The S&P GSCI plunged 70% from the end of September 1990 to December 1998.

Another peak for commodities relative to stocks was in 2008, at the start of the global financial crisis. And again, that was a terrible time to buy commodities. From July 2008 to February 2009, the S&P GSCI experienced a 65% peak-to-trough fall.

• If past is prologue, that means commodities are primed for another explosive bull run…

Today, the ratio of the S&P GSCI to the S&P 500 is 0.91. The average ratio going back to 1970 is 3.9.

In other words, the commodities sector is currently 77% below its average price relationship with stocks over the past half-century. And it’s lower, on a relative basis, than it was ahead of the big commodities rallies in the early 1970s and the early 2000s.

Surprising video footage explains Feb. 4 prediction

During the investment summit, I asked E.B. Tucker why he told folks to circle Monday, February 4, on their calendars.

His answer surprised me… And I’m pretty sure it will surprise you too.

Because of the time-sensitive nature of E.B.’s prediction, this presentation will be deactivated tomorrow.

There are lots of other considerations when it comes to buying natural resources.

But if you filter out the noise… and just buy when commodities are historically cheap relative to stocks… you’ll do very well indeed.

An easy, “one-click” way to get exposure today is to buy the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).

It gives you exposure to the 14 most heavily traded commodities.

You only need to invest a little bit of money to take advantage of this historic setup.

Regards,

[signature]

David Forest
Editor, International Speculator

Get Ready For The Next Big Upside Leg In Metals And Miners

February 1, 2019 Chris Vermeulen     We recently closed our GDXJ trade for a 10.5% total profit with our members.  We are preparing for a lower price rotation over the next 45+ days that will allow us to plan for new long.  Our research indicates the metals/miners should enter a downside price rotation over the next 45+ days as the US stock markets continue to rally.  Give this expectation, it is important to understand how we are timing this move for our members and attempting to take advantage of strategic trade deployment. With Gold recently breaking above $1300, many analysts have been calling for a continued breakout move to the upside as well as a massive market correction in the US stock market.  We’ve been calling for just the opposite to happen – a pause in the metals/miners near this $1300~1320 level. If our analysis is correct, a renewed … Continue reading