Contrary to what a number of gold bugs have observed, other experts believe recent drops in the gold price are not a bull market correction, but rather reflect a market stuck in a commodity bear “super-cycle.” Coupled with a gloomy end-of-year outlook for stock markets, precious metals and miners could be in for a rough Q4.
Referencing gold’s “6% loss in a week’s time,” a CNBC report published on Oct. 7 quotes John LaForge, head of real asset strategy for Wells Fargo: “Is the $60 drop in gold prices the beginning of a deeper dive? Our answer is yes, it may very well be. . .The history of gold, and commodity super-cycles, says that gold may very well lose another $200/oz., testing the $1,050 level, before it is time to buy again.”
The suppression of the gold price stems from oversupply, according the report. LaForge believes that, “enough gold has now been mined that were all the above-ground gold distributed equally among the earth’s human inhabitants, each would receive 0.8 ounces of the precious metal—one of the highest such amounts since 1950.”
The bear super-cycle hits gold miners as well: The report also quotes “trader and technical analyst, Todd Gordon, [who] says it’s high time to bet on more losses for the mining stocks.”
The forecast isn’t better for the stock markets, according to a Bloomberg report published Oct. 9. According to the article, Goldman Sachs is forecasting a “bumpy ride into the end of the year” for U.S. and European equities.
Goldman’s managing director of portfolio strategy and asset allocation, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, attributes the predicted slide in U.S. markets to high valuations, according to Bloomberg. This means stocks at “current levels can precipitate significant drops in the event of shocks.”
Potential shocks include the upcoming presidential election and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. In Europe, potential losses are linked to the weak economy, according to Bloomberg.
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