Video: John Kaiser proposes a new system for financing junior miners

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 19, 2015 BY TOMMY HUMPHREYSCATEGORY FEATURED INTERVIEW, JOHN KAISER, MINERAL EXPLORATION In the good old days of Howe Street, venture stock-brokers would act as an intermediary between junior mining companies and investors. This is a somewhat murky ethical practice of the brokers having two masters, both the companies they were helping to get off the ground, and the clients with which they were to serve. Investors tolerated this conflict of interest because they knew what they were getting into, and sometimes, they made a lot of money backing early stage deals. However, in recent years, large banks have consolidated the brokerage business, now controlling 95% of Canada’s wealth, according to some estimates. The banks do not want their brokers and clients to play in speculative securities like junior miners because of the risks and perceived conflicts of interest. Also, the big banks want to earn a management fee on assets over … Continue reading

Jim Rogers on Opportunities in Russia and Other Hated Markets

By Nick Giambruno Nick Giambruno: Welcome, Jim. As you know, Doug Casey and I travel the world surveying crisis markets, and we always like to get your take on things. Today I want to talk to you about Russia, which is a very hated market right now. What are your thoughts on Russia in general and on Russian stocks in particular? Jim Rogers: Well, I’m optimistic about the future of Russia. I was optimistic before this war started in Ukraine, which was instigated by the US, of course. But in any case, I bought more Russia during the Crimea incident, and I’m looking to buy still more. Unfortunately, what’s happening is certainly not good for the United States. It’s driving Russia and Asia together, which means we’re going to suffer in the long run—the US and Europe. Another of the big four Chinese banks opened a branch in Moscow recently. The Iranians are getting … Continue reading

The 10th Man: You Can’t Stop Progress, Supposedly

By Jared Dillian I am a sometimes gold bug and hard-money advocate, and a hard-core fiscal conservative. I have a pretty bearish outlook on the markets, I am generally skeptical of company management and especially journalists, and I think most investors, even the professional ones, are clueless.I’m one of those hopeless romantics who pays down his debt (often ahead of schedule), would never ask for a bailout, and would be loath to sign up for unemployment benefits or even Social Security. If I looked hard enough, I could probably find a tinfoil hat that fits.However, people who fit this profile are not typically big advocates of technology. You can’t use social media after the Snowden revelations, your phone is like a LoJack for the government, and who would trust a self-driving car? I would. Do you know how much reading you could get done? I love technology, and in spite … Continue reading

Find Gold and Silver Miners that Can Soar

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report  (2/11/15) Avoid Dodos and Find Gold and Silver Miners that Can Soar, Says Raymond James’ Chris Thompson Chris Thompson, mining analyst with Raymond James, is looking for companies that can continue to deliver real growth and shareholder upside—companies that can “fly”—regardless of metal prices. The high-flyers with upside, Thompson says, have good management, strong cash flow at current metal prices, organic growth potential and are undervalued relative to their peers offering those same attributes. In this interview with The Gold Report, Thompson offers some precious metal names that could soar. The Gold Report: A recent Raymond James research report refers to silver as the “devil’s metal.” What is the story there? Chris Thompson: Silver is much more volatile than gold. Typically when we see a weak day for the gold price, silver has a terrible day. Likewise, if we see a strong day for gold, typically silver delivers exceptional … Continue reading

2015 forecasts for gold and gold-mining stocks

SpeculativeInvestorFebruary 12, 2015
Steve Saville

Below is an excerpt from our 2015 Yearly Forecast originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com last month. Excerpts from our newsletters and other comments on the markets can be read at our blog: http://tsi-blog.com/

Gold

Here’s the conclusion of our 2014 gold forecast:

Based on the small historical sample size, which is all we have to go on, you should ignore the predictions that gold will zoom straight back to its 2011 top. This is particularly so considering that gold’s true fundamentals are mixed at this time (no longer bearish, but not yet bullish). Gold is likely to provide a good return in 2014, but even if a major bottom is in place the gold price is unlikely to trade significantly above $1600 and could have trouble getting beyond the $1400s.

We were wrong about gold providing a good return in 2014, at least relative to the US$. In US$ terms gold was flat in 2014, although it did provide a good return in terms of every other currency.

In 2014 gold performed roughly as expected in US$ terms during the first half of the year, but then fell to a new bear-market low during the second half. The problems for the US$ gold price during the second half of 2014 were the perceived strength of the US economy (linked to the continuing upward trend in the S&P500 Index), the flattening of the US yield-curve (related to the perceived US economic strength), and the Dollar Index’s upside breakout from a long-term basing pattern.

The gold market has come to ignore the strength in the Dollar Index, because the US dollar’s rise on the foreign exchange market has come to be seen as more of a reflection of declining confidence in the ECB and weakening global growth than a reflection of improving US$ fundamentals. However, there is no evidence, yet, that the S&P500 has peaked. Also, the US yield-curve hasn’t yet signaled a trend reversal from flattening to steepening, and despite the problems in the ‘oil patch’ the general belief is that the US economy will make real progress this year.

There is never a good time to make a 12-month forecast, since forecasting is for the birds. But right now is a particularly bad time to make a gold forecast, the reason being that changes in other markets are needed to turn the gold market higher on a sustained basis and the needed changes may or may not be about to happen. Of primary importance, a sustained turn to the upside in gold almost certainly requires a sustained turn to the downside in US equities. Some long-term indicators are warning that such a change is in the works, but the S&P500’s price action hasn’t yet signaled anything of the sort. The first sign would be a daily S&P500 close below 1970.

If the S&P500 is in the process of rolling over to the downside on a long-term basis then it’s highly probable that gold bottomed last November and will generate the sort of performance in 2015 that we originally expected to happen in 2014. That is, gold will probably work its way higher over the course of this year with a top most likely occurring in the $1400s and with an outside chance of making it as high as $1600. The most plausible alternative is that the S&P500 will make some additional headway over the next few months and gold will drop to test its 2014 bottom during the second quarter of this year prior to a long-term reversal.

Gold Stocks

Gold-mining stocks will normally outperform gold bullion by a wide margin during the first 2 years of a new cyclical gold bull market. This is due to the fact that the cost of mining gold follows the gold price with a lag of 1-2 years. Due to this and depending on the length of the preceding gold bear market, the cost of mining gold will probably be in a downward trend at the start of a new cyclical bull market in gold bullion and will probably continue to fall during the first 1-2 years of a new bull market in gold bullion. A rising trend in the gold price combined with depressed stock valuations and falling production costs equals substantial profit-margin expansion and large gains in stock prices. Consequently, if gold made its ultimate bottom last November then the HUI should achieve a large percentage gain over the next 18 months in both nominal price terms and relative to gold bullion.

Of course, that’s a big “if”. Preliminary signs have emerged that the US$ gold price did indeed make its ultimate bottom last November (the non-US$ gold price having almost certainly bottomed way back in December of 2013), but we have been disappointed before. Last year, to be specific.

A long-term (that is, multi-year) bullish trend in gold mining stocks (as represented by the HUI) naturally requires a long-term bullish trend in gold bullion, which probably requires a long-term bearish trend in the US stock market (as represented by the S&P500 Index). A transition from a long-term bearish to a long-term bullish trend in the HUI and an associated transition from a long-term bullish to a long-term bearish trend in the S&P500 Index is our favoured possibility at this time.

Advertisement:tableheadwarrantcombinedJoin us at CommonStockWarrants.com for the only listing and details on all stock warrants trading in the United States and Canada. All industries and sectors are represented and many opportunites for investors. Don’t overlook this unique opportunity. Visit our website now.

The Companies Bob Moriarty Loves for the Long Term

Source: Karen Roche, The Gold Report  (2/9/15) The rapid and massive response when the Swiss unpegged the franc from the euro will ripple across the hedge fund, brokerage and financial systems. It also will infect other currencies, according to Bob Moriarty of321gold.com. Gold, he believes, will be the last man standing. In this interview, he tells The Gold Report where he is looking for love among midtier gold and silver stocks and explains why he has no love for overpaid CEOs. The Gold Report: The Swiss National Bank surprised the world by unpegging the franc from the euro. You wrote that you suspect this will be identified as the beginning of the end and that when the derivatives market blows up, it will take down billions of dollars in hedge funds. Is this the beginning of the end of derivatives and hedge funds or the beginning of the end of something bigger? Bob Moriarty: The beginning of … Continue reading

Where are the mining concessions in Mexico?

February 2, 2015 Geo-Mexico.com A series of graphics prepared by Mexico City daily El Universal includes a map showing the details of all the mining concessions in Mexico. According to the newspaper’s analysis, one fifth of Mexico’s total land area is subject to mining concessions belonging to one company or another. The six companies holding the largest areas of concessions are: Altos Hornos de México (364 concessions totaling 3208 hectares) Fresnillo PLC (1009; 1953) Industrias Peñoles (922; 953) Minera Fresco (779; 889) Cascabel (116; 749) and Grupo México (711; 607). The map is probably the single most interesting graphic in the series. Zooming in (top left of map) allows the details of each concession to be viewed, including the concession holder, size of concession, minerals involved and whether or not the concession is “active”. Is there a mining concession near you? You might be surprised. Even in an area of Mexico … Continue reading

Why Foreign Real Estate is a Grand Slam

By Nick Giambruno A grand slam in baseball, as many of you know, is a home run that is hit when the bases are loaded, in turn scoring four runs. It is the most potent move possible in a single play. In a similar sense, obtaining real estate in a foreign country is an international diversification grand slam – it can accomplish four key goals all at once: 1. Move Savings/Wealth Abroad Owning foreign real estate moves your savings and wealth offshore and therefore outside of the immediate reach of your home government. Unlike an intangible financial account, it is highly unlikely for your foreign real estate to be seized at the drop of a hat by your home country, without a literal act of war. 2. Create Other Internationalization Options In most cases, owning foreign real estate in a country provides a valid justification for you to open a … Continue reading

Outside the Box: The Preface from Flashpoints

By John Mauldin All eyes are focused on Europe this week as another Greek drama plays itself out. I have to admit that in my student days I was forced to sit through a number of Greek dramas, which are admittedly a fine part of our cultural heritage; but while I can appreciate their time and place in history, I really can’t say that I enjoyed them all that much.And while I can appreciate the passions involved in the unfolding Greek melodrama that is sweeping Europe, I must admit that I’m a bit weary of little Greece commanding center stage in the long-running Eurozone tragicomedy – or maybe we should just call it what it is: a parody of human relations. Mr. Yanis Varoufakis, the left-wing Keynesian economist who most recently taught at the University of Texas (irony intended) is now Greece’s finance minister. He is finding out that his … Continue reading

The 10th Man: Mean Reversion Monkeys

By Jared Dillian The buzz has been building on this trade for weeks. Clients, friends, people on Twitter, everyone I know has been waiting for a chance to pick the bottom in oil.I’ve heard all this chatter on which triple-leveraged oil ETFs to use (I make a point of not knowing such things). They’ve been waiting for this opportunity since oil was at 80 bucks.Interestingly, they could have shorted it when it was at 80. Actually, they could have shorted it at 110. Or 100. Or 90. Or 80. Or 70. Or 60. Or 50. They could have shorted it at 50 and still made money. But they waited this entire time, watching passively as oil plummeted over 60%, to play a 10-point bounce over the course of a couple of days. Well, the mean reversion monkeys, as I call them, will tell you that they just made 20% in three days. Annualize … Continue reading