Brian Maher

The War of Stocks and Bonds

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A monster day for gold… “Every single time the Fed cut rates when unemployment was below 4%, a recession immediately ensued & unemployment shot to 6–7%. Again: Every. single. time”… “The grand central bank experiment of the last 10 years has ended in utter and complete failure”… 

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Beware the “Adjusted” Yield Curve

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A revision to yesterday’s recession forecast, based upon the “adjusted” yield curve… Why the adjusted yield curve tells a much deeper story than the standard yield curve… “The “shot clock” started six months ago, putting us “in the zone” for a recession watch”…

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Has Recession Already Started?

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“U.S. recession probably started in the current quarter”… The bond market is giving its strongest warning since the financial crisis… Why President Trump should beg Jerome Powell not to raise rates anytime soon…

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Debt “Death Spiral” Approaching

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The “death spiral” — when every public dollar Uncle Sam borrows must service his debt… The tragic math of deficit spending… The year when the United States falls into the “death spiral”…

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Prepare for Trench Warfare

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Markets rebound after yesterday’s bloodbath… “Trump’s escalation comes at an awkward time, but if push comes to shove, [China is] quite capable of supporting growth through more investment and credit”… Why Trump may feel more pressure to reach a trade deal than China…

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