Economics has been called “the dismal science” for its conclusions which often suggest miserable outcomes for humanity. The saying was born in the 19th century by Scottish writer and philosopher Thomas Carlyle, who was referring to economist Thomas Malthus. Malthus famously calculated that humanity was trapped in a world where population growth would outstrip resources and lead to widespread misery including starvation – a condition known as “The Malthusian dilemma.”
Economics is dismal for another reason: it often fails to make accurate predictions.
We see this in the monthly US employment figures which are usually wrong, and in the copper supply projections trotted out by commodities analysts. Every year these analysts dutifully tally up the predicted market supply tonnage based on output targets from the major producers, and almost every year they turn out to be wrong. Why? Because these so-called experts failed to account for the gaps in output that occur due to strikes, extreme weather, bans on concentrate shipments, or any other reason why a mine closes temporarily due to “force majeure”.
Now the same thing is happening with lithium, with two recent reports coming up with predictions of a slide in lithium prices due to a glut of new supply overwhelmingly the tiny (by mining’s standards) lithium market.
What is puzzling is that both of these reports either gloss over or fail to adequately break down the demand side of the lithium market – something we at Ahead of the Herd did some time ago in a separate article. The conclusion we came to was that lithium demand is skyrocketing, and will continue to do so in coming years, due to the irreversible trend of moving from internal combustion engine-powered vehicles to electric vehicles. The trend is particularly evident in Asia. China is the largest EV market by volume, while Japan is number three behind the US. India is also aggressively ramping up EV targets. Of course we’ve seen the demand scenario play out through lithium prices, which have doubled in the last two years and are current trading at around $23,000 a tonne for battery-grade lithium carbonate. Still, the lithium bears are coming out from hibernation, and lithium stocks have been taking it on the chin. This article will show why they’re wrong.
The lithium bears
In February investment bank Morgan Stanley was first out of the gate with a damning report on lithium; its research team concluded that an avalanche of lithium was in the works and would put the roughly 200,000 tonnes per year lithium market into surplus. The glut would mean a fall to around US$13,000 a ton in 2018, before halving to $7,000 by 2021.
“A host of lithium projects and expansion plans – including increased production by low-cost Chile brine operator SQM – threatens to add 500 kilotonnes per annum to global lithium raw material supply by 2025, swamping forecast demand growth,” Morgan Stanley said.
The main reason for Morgan Stanley’s argument for oversupply was the recent government approval in Chile for mine expansions which would “open up …read more
Source:: Infomine
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