Additional trends and indicators support my bullishness. Worldwide business optimism, as recorded by October’s IHS Markit Global Business Outlook survey, climbed to its highest level in three years, with profits growth and hiring plans continuing to hit multiyear highs. Optimism among U.S. firms was at its highest since 2014, with sentiment above the global average for the second straight survey period.
Small business owners’ optimism remained at historically high levels in October, according to the latest survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Its Small Business Optimism Index came in at 103.8, up slightly from September and extending the trend we’ve seen since the November 2016 election.
Nearly 10 years after the financial crisis brought the global economy to its knees, conditions have finally improved enough to crystallize my conviction that synchronized global growth is currently underway. Revenue and earnings growth are up year-over-year, not just in the U.S. but worldwide. Despite President Donald Trump threatening to raise tariffs and tear up trade deals, global trade is accelerating. World manufacturing activity expanded to a 78-month high of 53.5 in October, with faster rates recorded in new orders, exports, employment and input prices.
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Additional trends and indicators support my bullishness. Worldwide business optimism, as recorded by October’s IHS Markit Global Business Outlook survey, climbed to its highest level in three years, with profits growth and hiring plans continuing to hit multiyear highs. Optimism among U.S. firms was at its highest since 2014, with sentiment above the global average for the second straight survey period.
Small business owners’ optimism remained at historically high levels in October, according to the latest survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). Its Small Business Optimism Index came in at 103.8, up slightly from September and extending the trend we’ve seen since the November 2016 election.
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As I told CNBC Asia anchor Bernie Lo last week, U.S., Europe and China’s economies are strong, which is igniting the rest of the world. The eurozone purchasing manager’s index (PMI), in particular—rising to 58.5 in October, an 80-month high—is very constructive for world economic growth in the next six months.
Fewest Number of Countries in Recession
Speaking on CNBC’s “Trading Nation” recently, Deutsche Bank chief international economist Torsten Slok made the case that global economic health “has never been more robust,” citing the fact that the number of countries in recession has dropped to its lowest level in decades.
“We have never seen a smaller number of countries in recession as we do at the moment,” Slok said. “And if you look ahead to the next few years… we are going to see that fall even lower.”
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) backs up this claim in its quarterly economic outlook. According to the Paris-based group, synchronized global growth is finally within sight, with no major economy in contraction mode for the first time since 2008. World GDP is expected to advance 3.5 percent in 2017—its best year since 2011—and 3.7 percent in 2018.
Taken together, this should help boost exports and global trade even further as more countries have the capital and demand to make purchases on the world market.
Exposure to Foreign Markets Boosted Companies’ Bottom Line
Bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar, exports by American firms hit a three-year high in August, the Commerce Department reported this month. Exports rose to nearly $200 billion, the highest level since December 2014.
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As further proof that the global economy is humming along, S&P 500 Index companies with greater exposure to foreign markets, especially Europe, saw higher revenue and earnings growth …read more
Source:: Frank Talk
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