By Mark Hulbert
MarketWatch
The top-performing gold-market timers aren’t convinced that the yellow metal’s low earlier this month marked the beginning of a new leg upward.
To be sure, with bullion $70 higher now than in early June, it certainly looks as though a bottom of at least some significance was formed at that time. Believers in that story were especially emboldened last Thursday, when gold jumped more than $40 an ounce.
But try telling that story to market timers who have the best records at calling turns in the gold market. In fact, the gold timers who are most bullish today have the worst records.
To bet on gold now, therefore, you have to believe that those who historically have been most wrong will turn out to be right — and vice versa.