By Brian Maher
This post Trump Tax Cuts Face Major Hurdle appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
Tax cuts are the master key to Trump’s economic agenda.
No tax cuts and the rest is just gossip and gossamer. They’re one of the reasons for the Trump “reflation trade” that’s sent the Dow’s barreling some 3,000 points since early November.
But are those tax cuts in jeopardy?
Trump has said he can’t “do” tax cuts until first “doing” health care. Straight from the equine’s oat hole:
Statutorily and for budget purposes… we have to do health care before we do the tax cut. The tax cut is going to be major… but I can’t do it until we do health care.
But Trump might not be able to “do” health care at all…
His own party’s warring over House Speaker Paul Ryan’s “repeal and replace” Obamacare alternative.
Ryan lauds his plan from hell to breakfast, says it lands clouts for freedom, slashes costs and red tape, covers everyone and runs the mile in four minutes flat.
But the party’s budget hawks say Ryan’s plan is all halfway-house options. It’s “repeal and replace” in name only. Or as David Stockman styles it, “Obamacare Lite.”
Meanwhile, the moderates moan it doesn’t cover everyone, that it’s a political land mine.
Poor Paul Ryan, caught in the switches of intraparty politics.
But now the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has entered the combat. And it lobs grenades on Ryan’s head…
The CBO says 14 million Americans could lose health coverage by next year under the Ryan plan. That figure rises to 24 million by 2026.
Bloomberg says these numbers are a “setback” for Trump, who promised “insurance for everybody.”
The report also intensifies the war between hawks and moderates. David Stockman:
Based on the CBO report released on Monday, I have no doubt that Obamacare “repeal and replace” is turning into exactly the fiscal and political calamity I have been predicting. I think the battle ahead will shatter the frail GOP majorities on Capitol Hill.
But if Ryan/Trump can’t collar the votes on health care, does that really mean no tax cuts either?
So it would seem.
Ryan, quote: “If my health plan doesn’t pass, we can’t pass tax reform.” End quote.
There it is, plain as midday. No health plan… no tax cuts.
Exactly what Trump said.
But we’ve got some news for them…
The Ryan plan could die as soon as Thursday…
It goes on trial before the House Budget Committee. If it doesn’t make it out of committee, into the trash can it goes. Then back to the drawing board.
Republicans outnumber Democrats 22-14.
The Ryan plan won’t notch a single yea from committee Democrats. But if just four Republicans defect, down she goes.
At least seven Republican committee members have called for a full Obamacare repeal over Ryan’s soft soap compromise. One member, Dave Brat of Virginia, indicated he’ll vote against the bill as written.
If he does… will three more join him?
Even if the Ryan plan makes it through committee, it still swims upstream. It has to first pass the House. Then the …read more
Source:: Daily Reckoning feed
The post Trump Tax Cuts Face Major Hurdle appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.