By Craig Wilson
This post Here’s Why Markets Are Waking up to the French Election appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
Just as it was looking like France was finally narrowing in on three candidates for its presidential elections — another political earthquake has struck. The unpredictability of the French election could shock the market, global investors and put the future of the euro currency in question.
French presidential candidate Francois Fillon has been placed under formal investigation (mise en examen). Allegations have now surfaced that the politician, who served under former French President Sarkozy, while in office arranged for government jobs for his wife and children.
Since then Fillon has made a political vow to fight on as the center-right candidate.
Last week Fillon said in an angrily delivered speech, “I won’t give in, I won’t surrender and I won’t withdraw.”
Fillon had previously promised in January that if he was to be placed under government investigation he would step down and allow another candidate from his party replace him. That has not happened.
Fillon was already the “third man” in the French election. This latest revelation puts him further behind for any likelihood of proceeding to a possible run-off election. Even if he was elected, he would enter office severely compromised. As one journalist pinned:
#Fillon taking a hell of a gamble, staying in race, knowing he will almost certainly still be under formal investigation election day.
— Elaine Cobbe (@ElaineCobbe) March 1, 2017
Could the French Election Be Next Polling Disaster?
In turn, his far-right opposition has continued to lead in polls for the first round of a likely two part election. Marine Le Pen of the National Front, the far-right anti-EU, anti-immigrant party, continues to be favored to make it to a second round of elections.
According to a recent Opinionway-Orpi poll (French based), Le Pen is expected to get 26% of the overall votes for the first round of the French election in April.
While many still believe that opposition either from centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron or the ailing Fillon will ultimately still be favorited to win the secondary French election held in May, much could unfold between now and then.
Within the same Opinionway poll, they found that Macron had a 62-38 point lead over Le Pen in the potential second round run-off. However, the far-right leader had tilt the deficit to 60-40 from the same polling only two days following.
The polls might, yet again, be showing one thing while the actual ground conditions offer another.
The founder of the National Front, Jean Marie Le Pen — the leading candidates father — shocked Europe when he made it to the run-off round in 2002. While early election history offers one story, markets appear to be hesitant to act.
Analysts: French Elections Could Shock Market
Economist and bestselling author Jim Rickards notes that, “These early elections have included a nationalist first-round victory in the Netherlands, and could present a “leftist alliance” that may skew the odds in favor of Marine Le Pen in France.”
“We’re watching this closely. It’s …read more
Source:: Daily Reckoning feed
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