Financial Sense

By FS Staff By FS Staff – Our Financial Sense leading economic indicator (LEI) peaked in October 2017 and has experienced six months of consecutive declines. It is still in positive territory—meaning the risk of a recession over the next six months is quite low—but weakening… …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Andrew Zatlin By Andrew Zatlin – Over the past few months, I have been pointing to slower growth coming out of Asia (i.e. China) and the E.U. (i.e. Germany). We can track the slowdown by looking at semiconductors and the overall supply chain. …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Urban Carmel By Urban Carmel – Debt is a perennial worry. It’s a natural human tendency is to think of debt as bad, that by incurring debt we are living beyond our means. But much of what you hear about debt in the US is hyperbole. …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Oil Price By Oil Price – The expected increase in oil production will not leave the market in a situation of oversupply, and in fact, barring no further action, the world could still be short of oil over the next year. There is no shortage of pitfalls for… …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Marc Chandler By Marc Chandler – Trading is not just about risk assessment and fundamental and technical analysis. There seems to a biological component that is gradually percolating into the mainstream. John Coates’ book… …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Michael Pettis By Michael Pettis – Given all the discussions about the beginning of a tariff war between the United States and China, I thought it might be helpful to wade through some of the relevant issues. To summarize, I want to… …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Danielle Park By Danielle Park – While stock bulls talk up a “strengthening” economy, consumer spending growth (which drives 70% of GDP in America) has fallen to a 4 ¼-year low even before rising trade tariffs are noted in backward looking data. …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Tim Duy PhD By Tim Duy – The U.S. economy performed about as well as might be expected in the first half of 2018, growing at an average pace of 3.15% in a “new normal” world where the longer-term speed limit might be just 1.8%. …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Michael Pettis By Michael Pettis – Economist Joseph Stiglitz recently published an interesting piece in Project Syndicate called “The US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China.” I am always surprised by claims that deficit countries like the United… …read more From:: Financial Sense

By Kurt Kallaus By Kurt Kallaus – Toll Brothers stock, one of the largest home builders, is down a whopping 35% from its peak this year as housing prices keep reaching new astronomical heights. The median home price in Tribeca, Manhattan is over… …read more From:: Financial Sense