By Frank Holmes
U. S. Global Investors
Gazing into their crystal balls this week, Wall Street firms interpreted differing futures for gold next year. Morgan Stanley awarded gold the “best commodity for 2013” while Goldman Sachs called the end of the metal’s hot streak. After seeing 11 consecutive years of positive performance from gold, one needs to be wary of research analysts’ price forecasts, as they have consistently underestimated the shifting dynamics driving the precious metal higher.
Take a look at analysts’ annual predictions of gold prices, which is “a telling picture,” CEO Nick Holland of Gold Fields told the crowd at a mining conference last summer. From 2006 through 2011, Bloomberg’s contributing analysts have forecasted that future gold prices would be lower. “The analysts who keep telling us the gold price is going down have been wrong seven years out of seven. That’s a remarkable track record!” says Holland.
It is worth keeping gold’s DNA of volatility in mind as the day-to-day price of gold naturally fluctuates, of course. Based on 10 years of data as of September 30, 2012, over any 20 days, there is a 7 percent chance of a 10 percent change in the gold price. Swings have historically been more frequent for gold equities, moving 10 percent up or down about 30 percent of the time over the same time frame.