By Jody Chudley
This post Tesla’s For Everybody – Says One Stanford Economist appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
The growth ramp-up that is in store for electric cars is mind-bogglingly large.
We don’t even need a massive, immediate transition away from combustion engine automobiles to make this happen. We just need a few more people every year to buy electric.
Let me show you some numbers to explain what I mean…
Today, there are roughly 1.3 billion automobiles being driven on the roads across our planet.1
Out of those 1.3 billion automobiles, at the end of 2016, approximately 2 million of them were electric.2
Yes, those are the numbers. I didn’t miss any zeroes, and there is no typo. For every 650 conventional combustion engine automobiles on the road, there is only 1 electric car. Electric cars have virtually no share of this massive market.
I don’t think it matters if you are someone who is extremely concerned about global warming or someone who doesn’t believe it exists at all. We can all agree that there is a huge market that electric cars are trying to tap into, and are virtually assured to at least get a piece.
From a starting point of virtually nothing, it’s not going to take massive changes in percentage market share to create incredible growth for electric cars.
For example, just getting to ten million electric cars will quintuple the number that were on the road at the end of 2016. After growing fivefold to 10 million cars, the market share of the electric vehicles will still be less than one percent.
Now For A Bit Of An “Out There” Electric Car Prediction
An economist at Stanford University named Tony Seba released a report this month that could have sent a few shivers through the boardrooms of Big Oil and Big Auto companies.
Source: salon.com
Personally I think the report is more than a little far-fetched, but I’m a big believer in listening to opinions of all kinds.
If what is in this report turns out even close to accurate, the entire world could be disrupted. Major countries will be pushed into financial chaos, fortunes are going to be lost (as well as made) and our day to day lives will be forever changed.
The entire geopolitical order would shift. And the worst part? The prediction is that this massive shift is going to happen within the next 10 years…
Because by 2025, Seba’s report predicts all sales of new vehicles are going to be electric. I’m talking about 100 percent of them.
Like I said, the report it a bit “out there.”
Take a look at the year 2016 in the bar graph below, which depicts estimated market share for the electric vehicle.
Although nothing close to the Seba prediction, the growth in electric car sales depicted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance is actually a fairly aggressive view. This view sees electric vehicles with 35% of the market in 2040.
Compare that to Seba, who sees electric vehicles with 100% of the market by 2025.
His thesis …read more
Source:: Daily Reckoning feed
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