The 10th Man: When the Market Moves Fast, Stuff Blows Up

By Jared Dillian One of my old rules of trading is that whenever a major asset class, index, or other benchmark has a sudden, rapid move in price, something blows up. Sky high.That’s because people get used to regimes. They get used to a certain state of affairs with a lack of volatility. They become complacent. Maybe they stop hedging. Maybe they allow themselves to have unbounded downside risk. Maybe they start gambling.In the last month, we’ve seen massive moves in the dollar and oil—and I assure you, someone is going to get hurt. So far I haven’t said anything controversial. Energy companies are going to get hurt by lower oil prices. Exporters are going to get hurt by a rising dollar. A chimpanzee could figure this out. But there are second-order effects. People are starting to figure out that Canadian banks are going to get hurt by the lack … Continue reading

Russia’s Unfazed by Falling Oil Prices

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist Oil is not quite as powerful a weapon against modern-day Russia as one might think. By arguing that the slump in oil prices will finish off Russia just like it did the Soviet Union, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, writing in the Daily Telegraph, is forgetting how far Russia has come since those dark days. It is true that the USSR couldn’t cope with falling oil revenues and that Saudi Arabia is credited with helping to break up the former empire by dramatically increasing oil production from 2 million to 10 million barrels per day in 1985. And sanctions could make it harder for Russian firms to access Western know-how, and ultimately affect Russia’s oil output. But that’s only if they drag on for years—which is doubtful, given the price the EU is already paying. A cut in global oil supply—and stronger global growth—will likely rebalance the oil … Continue reading

Elliott Wave Charts Point to Shocking Countertrend for Gold: Steven Hochberg

Source: JT Long of The Gold Report  (12/10/14) It’s not just surfers who scrutinize wave patterns. Steven Hochberg, chief market analyst at Elliott Wave International, uses the Wave Principle to predict the movements of commodities and the stock market based on a number of factors, including sentiment. In this interview with The Gold Report, he reads the waves and sees indications that the stock market is headed for a downtrend, while commodities will move up, although not in a direct line. The Gold Report: You have warned that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are in retreat and that we are entering a bear market that our grandkids will have to live through. What are the signs of that? Steven Hochberg: The retreat hasn’t been very big so far, but we see a couple of signs that its start is imminent. First, we look at all markets through our model, which is called the Wave Principle. It … Continue reading

Run Away from the Economic Tsunami

By Dennis Miller This warning comes from “Big Al” Greenspan, age 88. He’s been in the news a lot lately, speaking with Gillian Tett of the Financial Times at the Council on Foreign Relations and at the New Orleans Investment Conference. After reading several reports of both events, I spoke with Casey Research colleagues who’d attended the conference and asked, “Did Big Al really say this, this, and this?” Their response was crystal clear: “Yep! That’s exactly how I saw it and what I took his remarks to mean.” Mr. Greenspan is issuing a warning to anyone who will listen, ‘fessing up to things many of us thought might be true. His candor reinforces many of my worst fears: The Federal Reserve is raining money down from the heavens to fund unprecedented government spending and to keep the banking system solvent. The credit needs of the US government are so huge that … Continue reading

Doug Casey on Russia and Russian Stocks

By Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor, Nick: Okay Doug, so looking around, what markets look cheap to you today? Doug: I saw recently that many stocks in Greece are selling at around four times earnings. But I don’t know what the quality of their earnings are. Of course, the dividend yield on Greek stocks isn’t very high, and dividends are, I think, the best real indicator of how much free cash flow there actually is in a company. Nick: One market that has struck me as cheap—with a decent dividend yield—and that’s accessible is Russia. What are your thoughts on Russia? Doug: I think that things might get better there. That they’re doing this big natural gas deal with China is a plus. The fact that the Russians have apparently been continuing to buy a lot of gold is a plus. As far as Ukraine is concerned—with the proviso that I don’t believe in … Continue reading

Russia and China’s Natural Gas Deals Are a Death Knell for Canada’s LNG Ambitions

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist In recent years, a number of Asian companies have been betting that Canada will be able to export cheap liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its west coast. These big international players include PetroChina, Mitsubishi, CNOOC, and, until December 3, Malaysian state-owned Petronas. However, that initial interest is decidedly on the wane. In fact, while the British Columbia LNG Alliance is still hopeful that some of the 18 LNG projects that have been proposed will be realized, it’s now looking less and less likely that any of these Canadian LNG consortia will ever make a final investment decision to forge ahead. That’s thanks to the Colder War—as I explain in detail in my new book of the same name—and the impetus it’s given Vladimir Putin to open up new markets in Asia. The huge gas export deals that Russia struck with China in May … Continue reading

The 10th Man: We Were Crazy Hippie Bastards

By Jared Dillian When I was in junior high, my friend Scott had this Billy Crystal tape that we passed back and forth to each other. I still like Billy Crystal, but let’s just say he was truly hilarious when I was 13 back in 1987.He had this routine about old codgers who used to tell you how hard life was in the old days.“We had no air…” he’d say, in an old man voice. “No food. We ate wool coats and we were happy.” Then he’d project into the future when he would be an old man, talking about what it was like in the Sixties, about Woodstock. “We closed down the New York State Thruway, we were crazy… hippie… bastards.” Battling Deflation at Any Cost Today’s central banking world kind of feels like Woodstock to me. Lots of long hair, tie-dye, and perhaps a generous helping of body odor. Certainly hallucinogenics … Continue reading

Judge This Country by Its Enemies

By Nick Giambruno   Pop quiz: can you name this free-market jurisdiction in the Western hemisphere? Here are some of its attributes: Personal income tax: NONE Corporate income tax: NONE Capital gains tax: NONE Taxation of dividends: NONE Taxation of interest: NONE Withholding taxes: NONE Payroll tax: NONE Social Security tax: NONE Wealth tax: NONE Inheritance/estate tax: NONE Property taxes: NONE Compared to the levels of taxation in the US, Canada, and Europe, to say the above is a breath of fresh air would be a major understatement. Now, there are only three jurisdictions in the Western hemisphere that do not levy property taxes, so that should narrow the field. The mere existence of property taxes is a ridiculous notion that should offend anyone with a respect of property rights. I have already covered this topic here in case you’re interested. Those three jurisdictions are the Cayman Islands, Dominica, and Turks and Caicos Islands. All three are worthy of discussion, but as I just returned from a speaking … Continue reading

Currencies Come – and Go: A History

December 2, 2014 History clearly shows that when it comes to currencies black swans do happen as the average lifespan of a currency is just 27 years. As such, investors should study currency history and, as part of a smart portfolio, they should protect their hard earned wealth and savings in a defensive fashion. The infographic below documents the history of currency in 10 different countries of significance. The above introductory comments are edited excerpts from an infographic* courtesy of via as posted by Jeff Desjardins of  entitled The History of Currency in 10 Different Countries. The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of (Your Key to Making Money!), (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and theFREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (register here; sample here).  This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Desjardins goes on to say in further edited excerpts: Throughout history there have been thousands of currencies that … Continue reading

USA – Is It time to turn off the lights?

Posted on December 1, 2014 by Martin Armstrong We have a very serious problem with taxation. Only the United States and Japan regards its citizens as state property. Taxes are normally owed based upon the concept that you are paying your “fair share” predicated on use. But the United States views it simply owns anyone born in the United States or overseas if they had even one American parent. This is in reality slavery that no state should own its citizens as property. The Washington Post has reported the plight of the Mayor of London Boris Johnson’s remains in a major dispute with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. It would be very nice to see everyone come together and challenge this to the Supreme Court for those are the pro-government judges that ruled all Americans belong to the state and that paying your “fair share” has nothing to do with taxes – just hand over whatever you … Continue reading