Making Sense of a Weird Market

By Jonas Elmerraji This post Making Sense of a Weird Market appeared first on Daily Reckoning. There’s a stock market crash coming. Maybe. It’s been a wild period in the markets. Between earnings season, increased tensions with North Korea and CEOs abandoning Trump after the Confederate statue controversy, investor anxiety has been on the rise. That came to a head earlier this week when more than 90% of the stocks in the S&P 500 ended deep in the red. The tech-centric Nasdaq Composite plunged more than 2%. The market was heavily down again yesterday. And as I write these words this morning, the major indexes are down again. Needless to say, the big tail wind that’s been driving the broad market higher has tapered off. Does that mean that the S&P is set to plunge now? No — it could turn around and tick higher, actually. But it does mean … Continue reading

“Hindenburg” Spotted Over Wall Street

By Brian Maher This post “Hindenburg” Spotted Over Wall Street appeared first on Daily Reckoning. “This may well be one of the most important days in the future of the equity markets for a very long while.” That was today’s early-morning warning of famous trader Dennis Gartman. The Dow lost 274 points yesterday. The S&P shed 38 of its own — percentagewise, even worse than the Dow. The booming Nasdaq fared worse than both. The tech index lost 123 points on the day — nearly 2%. The three indexes all opened lower this morning. The S&P and Nasdaq have since clawed their way back for slight gains. The Dow remains in red territory at writing. And so the market skitters like a panicked colt… confused… uncertain of its bearings… uneasy of its own uneasiness. Was yesterday’s swoon the “first foretaste of a bitter cup,” to take a leaf from Churchill … Continue reading

A Surefire Way to Beat Normal Stock Returns

By Brian Kehm It’s always a bumpy ride for small cap stock investors… but it’s been worth it since the turn of the millennium. Small cap stocks have almost doubled the performance of the S&P 500. Small caps in general have better opportunities to grow compared to large companies. And when you add a value component, returns really shoot to the moon. Small cap value stocks are up 464% since 2000. They’ve more than tripled the S&P 500. That’s huge! And you can gain access to these returns. There are many low-cost small cap value funds… but some are better than others. So I’ll list a couple of my favorites below. But first, let’s take a closer look at small cap value stocks… Small Cap Value Stocks One powerful model that analysts use to value stocks is the Fama-French three-factor model. It incorporates market risk, value and market cap components. … Continue reading

Weekend Show – Sat 19 Aug, 2017

By Cory Are We All Being Tricked By The Markets? Download audio file (0819-KER-Weekend-show.mp3) This was another interesting week for markets and news on the political front. We saw some increased volatility and the largest down move in the US equity markets on Thursday in 5 months (since March 21st). There are some more technical reasons now to doubt the markets but investors still seem to be distracted by political stories in the US. In this weekend’s show we address how the media is controlling the narrative and distracting the masses with stories that have little long term impact on financial conditions. With the Jackson Hole meeting around the corner as well as a Fed and ECB meeting we should get some more clarification very soon about the overall financial system. If you have any companies or guests you would like to see on the show please email me at … Continue reading

Why There Will Be No 11th Hour Debt Ceiling Deal

By MN Gordon Milestones in the Pursuit of Insolvency A new milestone on the American populaces’ collective pursuit of insolvency was reached this week. According to a report published on Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total U.S. household debt jumped to a new record high of $12.84 trillion during the second quarter. This included an increase of $552 billion from a year ago. US consumer debt is making new all time highs – while this post GFC surge is actually relatively tame, corporate and government debt have in the meantime exploded into the blue yonder. Nevertheless, this means consumers are also highly vulnerable to the coming crisis (which will look different from the last one, but will be perceived as just as, if not more devastating). [PT] – click to enlarge. Moreover, this marked the second consecutive record high on a quarterly reported basis for U.S. … Continue reading

Giant Peru mine blockade lifted after state of emergency

By analyst By Frik Els Copper retreated from 2½-year highs on Friday with futures contracts in New York failing to scale the $3.00 a pound level. Copper’s 2017 year to date gain is still around 18% and the red metal has recovered more than 50% in value after falling to six-year lows below $2.00 a pound in January last year. After a relatively quiet year in 2016 for supply disruptions (there is around a 6% production swing factor in global output of over 20m tonnes per year) due to bad weather, labour action and other unforeseen events, 2017 has seen several outages at some of the world’s biggest mines. A a 43-day strike at BHP’s Escondida mine in Chile – the world’s largest with a roughly 300,000t annual production gap to its nearest rival – ended in March and ongoing strike action at Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg operations in Indonesia have … Continue reading

Gold’s Sudden, Newfound Relative Strength

By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA Three weeks ago we discussed how Gold needed to perform considering the US$ index was likely to bounce due to an oversold condition and extreme bearish sentiment. We wrote: “Simply put, Gold will have to prove itself in real terms if it is going to hold its ground or breakout as the US$ begins a likely bounce.” The US$ index has enjoyed only a slight rebound but Gold has maintained its 2017 US$ weakness induced gains because of its strong relative performance. Below we plot the daily line chart of Gold and a number of ratios: Gold against foreign currencies (Gold/FC), Gold against Equities and Gold against Bonds. Since the July low, Gold has showed good nominal and relative performance. The key has been the strong rebound in Gold/FC and the breakout in Gold/Equities. Gold/FC has broken above two trendlines and is now testing its … Continue reading

Don’t Forget About The Red Swan

By David Stockman This post Don’t Forget About The Red Swan appeared first on Daily Reckoning. [Urgent Note: The nation’s future and a massive debt ceiling hangs in the balance as Trump pushes beyond the Comey hearings. That’s why I’m on a mission to send my new book TRUMPED! A Nation on the Brink of Ruin… and How to Bring It Back to every American who responds, absolutely free. Click here for more details.] Given the anti-Trump feeding frenzy, we continue to believe that a Swan is on its way bearing Orange. But if that’s not enough to dissuade the dip buyers, perhaps the impending arrival of the Red Swan will at least give them pause. The chart below comprises a picture worth thousands of words. It puts the lie to the latest Wall Street belief that the global economy is accelerating and that surging corporate profits justify the market’s … Continue reading

Cory’s Insights – Fri 18 Aug, 2017

By Cory The Charts That Tell the Story of 2017 (So Far) This is a great breakdown of what is actually happening in the US economy so far this year. There are a number of worrisome signs in the charts below but a couple positives that are contributing to the slow growth economy that the US, and world, is stuck in. … Click here to visit the FactSet website for the original posting… Over the first half of 2017, Insight examined many of the trends dominating the financial industry and making headlines. However, while headlines tell part of the story, nothing quite captures the movements of the market like data. Here, our panel of FactSet experts have selected the graphs and charts most evocative of the trends driving 2017 so far. Read on for an unadulterated look at the data behind the biggest stories of the year. U.S. Economy Sara … Continue reading

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 18 Aug, 2017

By Cory A balance between political market moves and fundamentals The markets have been a wild ride over the past 24 hours. A big dip yesterday and what looked like some follow through this morning has started to reverse. Lot of political stories again dominating the headlines butt he underlying economy has seen some more positive signs. Chris Temple and I discuss the push and pull behind politics and data that are playing a roll in these day to day moves. Click here to visit Chris’s site. Download audio file (2017_08_18-Chris-Temple.mp3) …read more Source:: The Korelin Economics Report The post Chris Temple from The National Investor – Fri 18 Aug, 2017 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst. … Continue reading