Iron ore price jumps to 8-week high

By analyst

iron ore price jumps to 8-week high

By Frik Els

The Northern China import price of 62% Fe content ore gained 2.3% on Tuesday to trade at $62.90 per dry metric tonne according to data supplied by The Steel Index. The price of the steelmaking raw material is now up more than 18% from year lows hit two weeks ago.

Some of the strength on iron ore markets are the result of speculation in futures ahead of the end of the quarter, but combined daily volumes on the main physical iron ore trading platforms in China and Singapore also reached its highest this year on Thurday, reports Reuters:

“We’re not expecting to see a full-blown rally from here, but something in the low $60s looks reasonable over the next few months,” said Daniel Hynes, commodity strategist at ANZ.

Something in the low $60s looks reasonable over the next few months

A worry for the industry remains global oversupply and stockpiles at Chinese ports remaining at record highs. Stocks of iron ore at China’s ports topped 141 million tonnes last week, the highest since 2004 according to Reuters:

“While demand is strong, supply is also strong,” said a trader in Beijing who last bought cargoes two weeks ago. “We’re very cautious about rising prices.”

Growing surplus

Iron ore’s rally goes counter to what most analysts believe is in store for the market which has been in oversupply for more than two years.

Morgan Stanley this week sharply cut its forecast for the iron ore price in the third quarter with the investment bank now seeing an average of $50 over the period, climbing to $55 in the final three months. For the year as a whole Morgan Stanley sees the commodity averaging $63 compared to a year-to-date average of $74. Iron ore is expected to continue to soften averaging $58 next year and $54 in 2019.

The latest forecast from the Morgan Stanley is more optimistic than predictions in a research note Citigroup released last week. The bank lowered its price outlook by a fifth saying iron ore will average $48 a tonne in Q4 2017, down from $60 in its previous prediction:

Both analysis blame growing global supply – most notably from Vale’s S11D mine and Roy Hill in Australia hitting full production – for the weak outlook. According to Citigroup, 2017 will see a surplus of 118m tonnes following a more than 60m tonnes glut last year. Morgan Stanley predicts nearly 40m tonnes of oversupply this year, growing steadily to top 120m tonnes in 2019 and 185m excess tonnes in 2021.

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Source:: Infomine

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Buy or Sell Pepsi Stock Today?

pepsi stock 2

By Rob Otman

Pepsi (NYSE: PEP) is a large cap company that operates within the beverages industry. Its market cap is $165 billion today, and the total one-year return is 14.9% for shareholders.

Pepsi stock is underperforming the market. It’s beaten down… so is it a good time to buy? To answer this question, we’ve turned to the Investment U Stock Grader. Our Research Team built this system to diagnose the financial health of a company.

Our system looks at six key metrics…


✓ Earnings-per-Share (EPS) Growth: Pepsi reported a recent EPS growth rate of 43.75%. That’s above the beverages industry average of 38.82%. That’s a great sign. Pepsi’s earnings growth is outpacing that of its competitors.

✓ Price-to-Earnings (P/E): The average price-to-earnings ratio of the beverages industry is 40.48. And Pepsi’s ratio comes in at 23.55. It’s trading at a better value than many of its competitors.

✗ Debt-to-Equity: The debt-to-equity ratio for Pepsi stock is 330.89%. That’s above the beverages industry average of 64.66%. That’s not a good sign. Pepsi’s debt levels should be lower.

✗ Free Cash Flow per Share Growth: Pepsi’s FCF has been lower than that of its competitors over the last year. That’s not good for investors. In general, if a company is growing its FCF, it will be able to pay down debt, buy back stock, pay out more in dividends and/or invest money back into the business to help boost growth. It’s one of our most important fundamental factors.

✗ Profit Margins: The profit margin of Pepsi comes in at 10.94% today. And generally, the higher, the better. We also like to see this margin above that of its competitors. Pepsi’s profit margin is below the beverages average of 13.15%. So that’s a negative indicator for investors.

✓ Return on Equity: Return on equity tells us how much profit a company produces with the money shareholders invest. The ROE for Pepsi is 59.38%, and that’s above its industry average ROE of 16.66%.

Pepsi stock passes three of our six key metrics today. That’s why our Investment U Stock Grader rates it as a Hold.

Please note that our fundamental factor checklist is just the first step in performing your own due diligence. There are many other factors you should consider before investing. That’s why The Oxford Club offers more than a dozen newsletters and trading advisories all aimed at helping investors grow and maintain their wealth.

If you’re interested in finding Strong Buy stocks yourself, check out Fundamental Analysis Pro. It’s a free five-part mini-course that will teach you how to grade stocks like a Wall Street veteran. Click here to learn more. …read more

Source:: Investment You

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Rick Ackerman and Technicals – Thu 29 Jun, 2017

By Cory US Markets Still Look Bullish

Rick Ackerman had an impromptu webinar with his subscribers that focused on a wide range of sectors. Listen in to hear his general takeaways.

Click here to visit Rick’s website.

Download audio file (2017_06_29-Rick-Ackerman.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

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Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 29 Jun, 2017

By Cory USD Decline, Bonds Dropping, Inflation Data All Impacting Gold

Gold continues to hang in there as we are seeing a much bigger sell offs in US equities, bonds, and the USD. Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report looks at these markets as well as inflation data to assess the future of the metals.

Click here to visit Craig’s website.

Download audio file (2017_06_29-Craig-Hemke.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

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The Next Google Is Not in the Nasdaq 100

next google nasdaq 100 1

By Andrew Gordon

Poor Google. The European Union landed a punch to its solar plexus earlier this week, saying it broke EU competition rules.

Google’s parent company Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG) faces a $1.2 billion fine.

The following day, Canada’s Supreme Court dealt Google an uppercut to the chin. It wants Google to scrub search results about pirated products not just in Canada, but everywhere else in the world too.

Google is one of America’s most successful tech giants. It’s going to take more than a couple of punches to topple this powerful company.
The FAANGs Aren’t the Future
But if the news this week made you think twice about Google’s future, then that’s not such a bad thing. Google and its fellow tech megacaps – Facebook (Nasdaq: FB), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) – have enjoyed great success.

Since 2016, they’ve accounted for more than 30% of the S&P 500 rise. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

But I’ve got news for you: The FAANGs aren’t the future. Sure, they’ve had a great run, and it’s not over yet.

But for an investor looking for exceptional growth opportunities, it might as well be over.

To get those kinds of gains, I’m looking for the next Google. It’s not going to be the current one.

I’m also looking for the next Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Netflix. And I’ll be finding them in the technologies and markets of the future…

Which is why I like virtual reality. And I don’t like wearables.

I’ve done my research. And it doesn’t involve reading thousands of pages.

I’ve got a shortcut. Amazingly, it points me where I need to be looking for the next generation of great tech companies.

And now I’m going to be sharing my secret shortcut with you.
Some Proof
I have a dozen charts I could show you. Here are the two I’ve chosen…

As you can see, the soaring successes of Uber, Airbnb and Instagram were predicted way back in 2010 and 2011.

Yahoo was recently taken over by Verizon (NYSE: VZ) for pennies on the dollar. When did you see that coming? This chart shows that Yahoo’s decline was predicted in 2009. The underperformance of eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) was pegged in 2008, when this dataset first began.
The Oracle-Like Crowd Wisdom of Founders
These charts come from Y Combinator – the U.S.’s top startup accelerator. It has developed an incredible set of predictive data.

Its source?

The data came from tens of thousands of applications received from startup founders wishing to join it since 2008.

Founders were asked questions like, “Who do you see as your main competitors.” The answers were broken down into keywords, which were assigned percentages based on how many times applicants mentioned them.

The results allow you to see into the future. I have the space to show you only a few, unfortunately. What they say about the future – the future of technology – is simply fascinating.

The Rise of Virtual Reality

We’re bullish on virtual reality (VR), with two VR startups in our First Stage Investor portfolio versus none for augmented reality …read more

Source:: Investment You

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The World’s Most Dangerous Man

Persian Gulf map

By Jody Chudley

This post The World’s Most Dangerous Man appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

On June 19, Saudi Arabia reportedly captured three members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A newsworthy story in its own right.

But what the Saudis allege the three were doing is much bigger news.

When captured, these three men were on-board one of three boats that were approaching the offshore Saudi oil field Marjan.1

They were not there for sightseeing.

The vessels (again this is according to the Saudis) were loaded to the brim with the types of materials that made the intent of the Iranians very clear…

They were on a mission to blow up significant Saudi oil infrastructure. Fortunately for the Saudis, their own patrolling vessels intercepted the covert mission, capturing one Iranian boat and chasing the other two away.


If the events depicted are true (the Iranians deny them), this was nothing short of an act of war in a region already on the precipice.

It was also an attempted attack on a country that is about to become a lot less predictable.

The Age Of Saudi Patience Is Over – Now In Charge Is A Man With A Short Fuse

The powder keg that is the Middle East is deteriorating every day. When this thing goes off, the oil markets will be in turmoil.

Recently, a big inflection point arrived in the region in the form of a man who many experts believe will be the match that ignites the fuse.

His name is Mohammed bin Salman and he has now officially for all intents and purposes assumed control of Saudi Arabia.

Source: Middle East Press

Mohammed bin Salman is a young Saudi man with some very bold ideas. Born in 1985, he is the son of King Salman, the current Saudi ruler.

In mid-June, King Salman surprised the world by firing the existing Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and replacing him with his 31 year old son.

Some observers called the move a “soft coup.”

The move puts the young Prince Mohammed in the position of second in the Saudi chain of command, and heir to the throne. But there is more to the story than that, because the 81 year old King Salman is reportedly suffering from dementia and is unable to function effectively for more than a couple of hours per day.

The reality is that Mohammed bin Salman is effectively already the ruler of Saudi Arabia — a major turning point in Middle Eastern history.

Bright, Bold and Belligerent – Plus Openly Hawkish On Iran

Mohammed bin Salman is assuming effective power at a critical junction for Saudi Arabia.

Relationships with Qatar and Iran have become extremely tense, and the country is stuck in an impossible to win war in Yemen.

The new Crown Prince has further made clear that his two primary desires for Saudi Arabia are to:

Take the lead position in the Sunni Muslim Arab world that Egypt has given up since the 2011 Arab spring

Meet head-on the growing …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

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The Modified Davis Method

By Frank Roellinger

[Ed. note: we are republishing the original Frank Roellinger article on the Modified Ned Davis Method with an up-to-date performance chart]

Introduction and Disclaimer

An earlier version of this article was submitted to Seeking Alpha but was rejected because it contained no “in-depth, fundamental analysis”. A brief search of the SA website disclosed references to fundamentally based articles on the Acting Man website. So I sent Pater a note claiming knowledge of a fairly accurate, purely mechanical method to identify significant long-term turning points in the market. I offered to tell him a few days in advance the target point of the next signal. He graciously offered to publish my article here. If it can be arranged, I will post its buy and sell signals as they occur in the future. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only, it will never be a recommendation to buy or sell anything. But I believe that it will prove interesting to consider and watch over time.

Method Description

My method is similar to the so-called 4 percent method on the Value Line Geometric index, as first published by Ned Davis in the early 1980s. For those unfamiliar with this index, it is described here:

Davis’s algorithm simply bought long any 4% or greater move up in the weekly closes of this index, and sold and went short on any 4% or greater move down in the weekly closes. His algorithm captured a good portion of every major move up or down, but, as is typical of a trend following method, suffered a number of whipsaw losses, primarily due to false sell signals. I tried a number of ways to reduce these and found two that worked well.

The first added feature uses a trend line. By dynamically constructing this line and deferring action until the market penetrated it, the method reduced whipsaw losses significantly, with little effect on total returns. I thus added this feature to the method.

The second improvement concerns short sales. Davis shorted on all sell signals. Unfortunately, most of these short sales did not end profitably. Using market breadth (advancing and declining issues on the NYSE) was found to better identify conditions for a short sale. My first pass modification identified every major downturn since 1961, except the plunge on 9/11/2001 on occasion of the WTC attack (which was hardly an economically based event), and prevented shorting of many of the smaller corrections. I added this feature to the method, unchanged from my first attempt.

Data Series

The farther an index moves (in percentage terms), the better it is suited for trend following. Davis probably was aware of this, and chose the Value Line Geometric index because it did move farther than other indexes available at the time, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Many small-cap indexes exhibit this tendency to make greater moves than their larger cap cousins, and are the basis for ETFs and futures contracts. Currently there are no ETFs or futures contracts based …read more

Source:: Acting Man

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Australian Miner’s Revenue Stream Still Going Strong at Tomingley

Source: The Gold Report 06/29/2017

With gold production progressing better than expected, this miner has revised its guidance for FY/17.

In a June 27 news release, Alkane Resources Ltd. (ALK:ASX; ANLKY:OTCQX) announced that “the release of higher grade ore, particularly from the Caloma and Caloma Two pits, and generally clear weather” led to “gold production of over 17,000 ounces across April and May” at its Tomingley Gold Operation (TGO). The results allowed Alkane to upgrade its H2 FY/17 guidance from 31,000–36,000 ounces to 43,000–45,000 ounces and revise its full-year guidance for 2017 “to production of 65,000–67,000 ounces at an AISC of A$1,300–A$1,400.” In July full details of the revisions will be released with the quarterly report.

Edison Investment Research analyst Tom Hayes stated in a June 27 report that “Alkane’s strong H2 production performance at the TGO has also led the company to revise its full-year FY17 production guidance to 65-67koz Au at all-in sustaining costs of between A$1,300/oz and A$1,400/oz. This is 12% above our TGO gold production estimate for FY17 of 58koz, and slightly ahead of our AISC estimate for FY17 of A$1,469/oz.”

“This positive H217 production performance sees Alkane finishing FY17 with a flourish, after a difficult H117 dominated by intense periods of rainfall, which negatively affected gold mining at the TGO,” Hayes stated. He also highlighted that the higher pit grade reconciliations “bode well for the extensive exploration being undertaken over the TGO to test and increase confidence in underground resource sections.”

“We expect to revise our base case valuation for the TGO, and Alkane’s shares, pending its release of formal revised underground mine plans for the TGO, sometime towards the end of H118 (H2 CY17). This will follow the completion of current drilling activities and a revised resource and reserve statement for the TGO,” Hayes concluded. Alkane is currently trading at $0.24 per share.

Read what other experts are saying about:

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