Too Much Bubble-Love, Likely to Bring Regret

By Pater Tenebrarum

Unprecedented Extremes in Overbought Readings

Readers may recall our recent articles on the blow-off move in the stock market, entitled Punch-Drunk Investors and Extinct Bears (see Part 1 & Part 2 for the details). Bears remained firmly extinct as of last week – in fact, some of the sentiment indicators we are keeping tabs on have become even more stretched, as incredible as that may sound. For instance, assets in bullish Rydex funds exceeded bear assets by a factor of more than 37 at one point last week.

Bullish investors had every reason to feel smug in recent months. And while there are a number of bears of varying degrees of prominence who have become cautious much too early (many of whom have fallen silent over the past year or so, but that is how it always works…), there are very few traders who are actively betting on a downturn. And yet, we know that the main bubble fuel – namely, broad true money supply growth – is faltering.

Last Friday, after discussing with friends of ours what the best way to play tail risk currently probably is, we updated a few of the charts we showed in those articles. More on the former topic follows further below, but first here are a few charts we made on Friday, just before the recent minor dip began – i.e., the charts are not showing this dip yet, but this is actually not relevant for our purpose. The first chart is a weekly chart of the DJIA as of Friday last week (we are focusing on the DJIA because it is the “bubble leader”).

A weekly chart of the DJIA as of Friday last week. To be perfectly honest, we are actually not 100% sure if a weekly RSI exceeding 92 is entirely “unprecedented”, although we strongly suspect it is. What we do know for certain is that it has not happened in at least 45 years. As noted in the insert, this manic RSI reading has coincided with DSI readings (daily sentiment index of futures traders) on stock index futures that were the exact opposite of the extreme DSI readings recorded at the low in March of 2009.

When it comes to charts, we like to keep things simple – cluttering them up with all kinds of oscillators and overlays is not really our thing. We do however traditionally use RSI and MACD as overbought/oversold indicators, mainly in order to spot divergences, which are often helpful for short to medium term timing. When we looked at longer term charts to see whether the DJIA had ever posted a weekly RSI above 92 before, it occurred to us that this was probably extremely rare for any stock market index.

It turns out we were right about that. As an example, when the great tech mania of the late 1990s topped out in March of 2000, the Nasdaq’s weekly RSI stood “only” at 84. In the DJIA, even the monthly RSI finally exceeded …read more

Source:: Acting Man

The post Too Much Bubble-Love, Likely to Bring Regret appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

KER Politics – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Big Al All the Dems can seem to say is that: “We are not Trump”

Big Al says: “Kind of a sad state of affairs when that is all the opposition can seem to say”

No ideas, policies, talking points: Doddering Pelosi crew leans on ‘We are not Trump’
BY ANDREW MALCOLM Special to McClatchy

PicNo ideas, policies, talking points: Doddering Pelosi crew leans on ‘We are not Trump’
BY ANDREW MALCOLM Special to McClatchy

Picture
MIKE STOCKER Sun Sentinel

U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., left, and House minority leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., speak during a town hall meeting Jan. 25, hosted by the Florida Atlantic University College Democrat in Boca Raton, Fla.

Distracted by Donald Trump’s disputatious style and flagrant violations of political norms, Democrats have consistently underestimated his political appeal. No way he could beat their candidate in 2016. But he did.

No way the New Yorker would actually make a conservative Supreme Court nomination, let alone get it through. But he did. Signed tax reform and repealed Obama-care’s core mandate, too. Plus dozens of executive orders contradicting his predecessor’s efforts.

Now Democrats and their sympathetic media are eagerly awaiting the oncoming annihilation of many of Trump’s congressional ground troops in the midterm elections just 40 weeks away. Maybe so. Republicans losing one or both chambers would stymie Trump’s agenda for at least two years, not to mention his district and higher court judicial appointments.

But Democrats appear to be making a familiar mistake again, one that’s become chronic for them this century. That is, in the words of another Republican president they misjudged, “misunderestimating” their GOP opponent.

Presidential midterms are usually political report cards on the party controlling the White House. Bill Clinton got shellacked in 1994. Riding support after 9/11, George W. Bush gained House and Senate seats in 2002, but then lost both houses in 2006.

All signs so far indicate Democratic candidates and the money-strapped national party are counting on winning back at least part of Congress, specifically the House, this year by playing off the country’s widely-held displeasure or disgust with Trump. They are confident that “We Are Not Trump” is sufficient to carry the day Nov. 6.

Anti-Trump animus might seem a tempting bet. A majority of Americans have disapproved of Trump’s job performance seemingly since within minutes of his taking the oath 53 weeks ago. Although eight-of-ten Republicans have stuck with him, Trump’s overall job approval has bobbed along from the low-forties to mid-thirties, historically low for a new chief executive.

Trump was elected by a dedicated plurality, promising to shake up Washington’s comfortable self-centered ways on both sides of the aisle. He’s certainly shaken things up from a style perspective, even going after his own party’s establishment leaders.

Trump has, in fact, invented the political equivalent of fracking, finding and creating vast reservoirs of subterranean turmoil to exploit for sometimes murky reasons.

Now, no one ever seeks or becomes president with a minute ego. Trump’s is, let’s say, plus-size. All the turmoil keeps the daily — even hourly — focus on him, which seems important to …read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post KER Politics – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Crypto: The Key to Retiring 20 Years Early

CryptoCloud Screenshot

By Andrew Keene

This post Crypto: The Key to Retiring 20 Years Early appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

The stock market’s been down these past couple of days, but the new year has basically been an extension of the run higher in U.S. equities.

But what should you think about the recent correction in cryptocurrencies?

Bitcoin, for example, is trading at around $10,000 this morning after peaking around $20,000 last month.

This market moves awfully fast. But let’s review what’s been happening in the crypto space so far this year…

Bitcoin – down 17.8% in January

Litecoin – down 37.3% in January

Ripple – down 20.4% in January

What happened?

This selloff was accelerated by an announcement from the South Korean government related to regulation in the cryptocurrency space.

The regulations announced include:

A ban on minors and foreigners opening a new account.

Real name verification – All cryptocurrency exchange account holders will have to verify their name and will only be allowed to trade under a name that matches the name on their bank account exactly.

Increased pressure on banks to report “suspicious” cryptocurrency related transactions.

A ban on new crypto offerings, known as ICO’s.

Where does the crypto market go from here?

This shift from a completely unregulated marketplace to one that more resembles traditional financial markets has caught a lot of investors off guard, but the reaction in markets is very much overdone.

When prices begin to fall, it shakes a lot of newcomers out of the tree, so you can see a lot of action like this.

Use that to your advantage!

In the short term, headlines may continue to contribute to crypto market volatility. But the long term reasons for holding bitcoin and other cryptos are as valid as ever.

I see this recent sell off as a golden opportunity to enter the crypto market at a deep discount.

Every significant pullback over the past year has seen buyers aggressively enter the market. That means that you should consider cryptos as being “on sale” right now. Major cryptocurrencies are trading at a serious discount relative to the 2018 open.

Bitcoin is holding around $10,000, and litecoin appears to be finding strong support. This means that they might not be at these levels for much longer.

Ripple may continue to see heightened volatility, however, as it has not yet established a strong base of support. You should look for support to be established before entering Ripple.

Just keep in mind that average volatility in these markets is much higher than equities or indices, so crypto investors must be prepared for large intraday moves, even on the way up. They should be prepared for further volatility, as headline risk is still very much present. But that’s not a reason to stay away.

No, you won’t see this type of volatility in blue chip stocks like a Coca-Cola or Boeing. But you won’t make fortunes in them, either.

Having said that, with crypto markets in their early stages it is extremely easy for inexperienced investors to get involved in a crypto offering that isn’t innovative, unique or offering any value proposition to speak …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

The post Crypto: The Key to Retiring 20 Years Early appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

David Erfle – Gold Market Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Cory Comments On PMs, Zinc, and Copper – Plus Some Stocks To Watch

On my conversation with David Erfle, The Junior Miner Junky, we look at the broad PM stock sector and take a closer look at copper and zinc. We also discuss a couple companies that David thinks you should be paying attention to.

Click here to visit David’s website to find out more about his newsletter.

Download audio file (2018_01_30-David-Erfle.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post David Erfle – Gold Market Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Cory

Auryn Resources – 2018 Drill Plans and Overall Strategy

News has been slow out of Auryn Resources (TSX:AUG & NYSE:AUG) recently but the Company is gearing up for another busy drilling year. Ivan Bebek, Executive Chairman at Auryn Resources shares what we can expect out of the Company in Peru and at Committee Bay in Nunavut. He also shares some details on a recent drill hole in Peru that is in the assay labs and showed very encouraging mineralization.

Please comment or email me (Fleck@kereport.com) if you have any questions or comments for Ivan and his team.

Download audio file (2018_01_30-Ivan-Bebek-Auryn.mp3)

Here’s slide 11 of the presentation outlining the hole Ivan is anxiously awaiting assay results for.

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Cory How Rising Rates Impact Income Investing

Eddie Ghabour, Co-Owner and Managing Partner at Key Advisors LLC joins me to outline how rising yields impact the mentality and strategies for income investors. We also look at the health of the US markets in the face of the drop today. He outlines how a drop in the markets would be beneficial.

Download audio file (2018_01_30-Eddie-Ghabour.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Cory 1% Correction In The Markets – Should We Panic?

Chris Temple joins me today to look at the selloffs today in the US equity markets. The Dow is down almost 300 points and the VIX touched above 15 for the first time since August. We also look at the relationship between rising yields and a natural correction that is due for the markets.

Click here to visit Chris’s site for more of his market and stock commentary.

Download audio file (2018_01_30-Chris-Temple.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Chris Temple from The National Investor – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018

By Cory Maple Gold Mines – A Look Ahead For The Next Couple Months

At the recent Cambridge House show I heard a couple people mention Maple Gold Mines. There is a lot of news coming in the next couple months so I wanted to chat with Matthew Hornor, President and CEO of Maple Gold Mines. We discuss the updated resource, the large drill program planned for this year, and assay results soon to come.

Click here to visit the Maple Gold Mines website.

Download audio file (2018_01_29-Matthew-Hornor-Maple-Gold-Mines.mp3)

Please note that I am a shareholder of the Company and they are sponsors on our site. Please comment or email me with any questions for Matthew and his team.

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Tue 30 Jan, 2018 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.