Flash Update (8/3)

By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The 6-page update has been published, emailed out to subscribers and uploaded to the members section of this website.

In this update we share our latest thoughts on the Gold, the miners, the US Dollar index as well as our mini-GDXJ index. We compare historical CoT’s of the US Dollar and Gold to see points where both were relatively bullish (at the same time). We also comment on a stock, in which we added to our position.

…read more

Source:: The Daily Gold

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The One Safe Haven Left

By James Rickards

This post The One Safe Haven Left appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

The U.S. in the midst of partisan political turmoil. China is about to fight an all-out trade war with the U.S., Russia hunkering down for a new Cold War with the west, North Korea forcing a new world war, and emerging markets vulnerable to capital flight as confrontations escalate.

In the middle of all this, is there one investor safe haven left in the world?

The answer is, “yes.” It’s Europe.

I expect the euro to soar from $1.17 to $1.25 and higher in the months ahead.

Your correspondent in Paris during a recent visit. Most Americans get their European news from sources in the U.S. or London such as The Economist or The Financial Times. These sources are biased against the euro and present a misleading picture. It’s critical to visit France, Germany, Italy, and other countries in Europe and meet with their officials to learn what’s really going on in the EU, and with the Euro.

The U.S. and UK media have bombarded U.S. investors with nothing but bad news on the euro and the EU since 2009. This began shortly after the global financial crisis of 2007–2008.

One of the aftershocks was the bankruptcy of the quasi-sovereign wealth fund DubaiWorld the day after Thanksgiving in November 2009. Even as Americans were recovering from the turkey dinners, the financial world was turned upside down by this black swan from the Middle East.

The contagion quickly spread from Dubai to Europe. A liquidity crisis arose. The sovereign bonds of the EU “periphery” of Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (“GIIPS”) were called into question. A major bailout of the GIIPS countries was quickly organized.

This bailout involved money printing by the European Central Bank (ECB), conditional lending by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and new lending and guarantees by the European Union (EU) based in Brussels and led by Germany. The ECB, IMF and EU became known as the Troika, and were responsible for a series of bailouts between 2010 and 2015.

At this point, early in the crisis, the critics of the euro came out in force. Led by Nobel Prize winners Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, and with support from many others including Nouriel Roubini, they screamed that the euro was doomed!

Their argument was that the GIIPS should quit the euro, go back to their original currencies such as the Greek drachma and Italian lira, immediately devalue to lower their labor costs, and grow their economies with cheap labor, cheap exports, and imported inflation.

In the estimation of Krugman, Stiglitz and the rest, the EU should split into a “northern tier” of strong economies such as Germany and the Netherlands. There would also be a “southern tier,” consisting of mostly GIIPS and possibly France. Only the northern tier would be eligible for a common currency.

In effect, the critics said the euro was certain to fail and the sooner it was buried in its grave, the better.

Everything about this forecast was wrong, …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

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Solved: The Case of the Missing Volatility

Where's the Volatility?

By Brian Maher

This post Solved: The Case of the Missing Volatility appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

“Where has all the volatility gone?”

The lack of market volatility was a recurring theme at last week’s Natural Resource Symposium, hosted by Sprott in Vancouver.

Volatility hovers around historically low levels.

The VIX — Wall Street’s fear gauge — has closed below 10 on only 26 occasions since 2000.

Yet nine of these occasions have taken place since this April alone.

And volatility fell to an all-time low on July 26… to 8.84:

We might refer to the “calm before the storm” at this point.

Because we maintain a violent hostility toward the easy cliché, we won’t.

But put our little crotchet to one side…

When Jim Rickards took the podium last Friday, he said something about volatility that scratched lots of heads…

Yes, volatility seems at record lows, Jim confirmed.

But he said that in reality it isn’t.

Jim said volatility has simply migrated from the stock market to another market entirely… and no one’s noticed.

At that point, the crowd sat upright in its collective seat… tuned out all noise… and tuned in Jim…

Where has the volatility migrated?

Answer shortly.

Let us first peer into today’s market doings…

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the day 52 points higher than where it began.

It has now summited the 22,000 mark.

It seems only yesterday that it scaled 21,000.

Is 23,000 next?

The S&P gained one lonesome point today.

Meantime, the Nasdaq took a rare day off, closing the day down less than a point.

Amazon was down over $5 at one point today before scratching its way to breakeven.

Incidentally, Amazon has lost some 10% since tallying an all-time high last week — a portent of things to come?

Yes, stock market volatility is currently on furlough.

But it has not been eliminated, according to Jim Rickards.

Where is it hiding?

The currency markets.

“Volatility has shifted to the foreign exchange markets,” Jim told the Sprott conference.

Jim also presented a chart showing the dramatic price swings between the euro (EUR) and the dollar (USD).

Jim revealed the EUR/USD exchange rate has seen six separate moves of 20% or more in the past eight years.

He says these are “earthquakes” in a world of fourth-decimal-place pricing:

“Forex customarily trades in so-called ‘pips,’” says Jim, “which are measured at the fourth decimal place in an exchange rate. Lately we’ve seen moves of 1,000 pips per day.”

Jim’s also an expert in complexity theory. And he says complex systems like the currency markets are most vulnerable at times like this.

He told conference-goers this market is “highly unstable” and, employing a highly technical term… “wobbly.”

Perhaps you don’t think that concerns you.

But you do hold currency of one sort or another… we assume.

And as Jim notes, foreign exchange represents the world’s largest market.

Shouldn’t volatility in the world’s largest market arch an eyebrow here or there?

It hasn’t.

But currency volatility is a “scary thought,” says Jim, because the system has no anchor:

Currencies resemble boats with no moorings; they just drift around and occasionally crash into each other. The problem is that without moorings, they could all hit …read more

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed

The post Solved: The Case of the Missing Volatility appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Daily Market Wrap – Wed 2 Aug, 2017

By Cory

Comments on share buybacks and the general markets

We hear a lot about how share buybacks are large contributors to the rising markets. However the recent months have shown that this might not be true. See the chart and excerpt from Trim Tabs below that outline the lower share buybacks.

Download audio file (2017_08_02-Market-Wrap.mp3)

Here’s the data from Trim Tabs…

While the too-big-to-fails unleashed a flood of stock buyback announcements after the Federal Reserve’s latest “stress test,” announcements by other U.S. companies have been light.

Financial companies rolled out $92.8 billion in buybacks on June 28, accounting for 86% of the $107.3 billion in buybacks in all of June. In July, buybacks for all companies fell to just $17.3 billion, the lowest level since May 2012.

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

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Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Wed 2 Aug, 2017

By Cory An Introduction To A New Tech Diagnostic Company – LexaGene

LexaGene (TSX.V:LXG & OTCQB:LXXGF) is Company that was just introduced to me about three weeks back. I have done quite a bit of research behind the scenes which includes meeting up with the President Daryl Rebeck.

Today Daryl joined me for an introduction interview to outline the Company’s new diagnostic product and the markets they are focused on initially. I wanted to introduce LexaGene before the prototype products are read which is slated for November of this year.

we could only cover the high level aspects of the Company but please comment and email me directly – Fleck[at]kereport.com – if you have any follow up questions for Daryl or I.

Click here to visit the LexaGene website for further information.

You can also click here to review the LexaGene presentation.

Download audio file (2017_08_02-Daryl-Rebeck-Lexagene.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Exclusive KE Report Commentary – Wed 2 Aug, 2017 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Exclusive Insights on the Gold Market – Wed 2 Aug, 2017

By Cory Precious Metals Looking Good But Is A Break Out Around The Corner?

Gold continues to hang around the $1,270 level and sentiment indicators have shifted more positive. Jordan Roy-Byrne joins me to outline the technical levels he is watching plus what he thinks will impact the price in the short term. The dollar will play a roll but it all comes down to time frame when you think the true breakout will come.

Click here to visit Jordan’s website for more metals focused commentary.

Download audio file (2017_08_02-Jordan-Roy-Byrne.mp3)

…read more

Source:: The Korelin Economics Report

The post Exclusive Insights on the Gold Market – Wed 2 Aug, 2017 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Gekko exec on the challenges of working in the Arctic

By analyst

By Valentina Ruiz Leotaud

Gekko Systems‘ execs usually talk very proudly about the company’s Python process plant installed at TMAC Resources’ (TSX:TMR) Hope Bay Project, located in Nunavut, Canada.

Speaking to MINING.com’s Michael McCrae at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada conference, the company’s Technical Director and co-founder, Sandy Gray, was no exception.

According to Gray, the plant has the capacity to treat 1,000 tonnes of mill feed per day, and it comes with a concentrate treatment plant capable of treating up to 300,000 ounces per annum. All this equipment, he said, was manufactured in Ballarat, Australia and shipped in 200 containers to the Arctic Circle in an unprecedented operation.

“The remoteness was challenging,” he said. But not only the isolated conditions of the site had to be taken into account, Gray added. The environmental conditions in the area also posed several challenges. “As outside temperatures regularly drop to minus 50 degrees Celsius, the plant and equipment needed to be designed to withstand such conditions.”

Gekko’s Technical Director also explained that the company was required to meet strict deadlines for the equipment to arrive at Roberts Bay Port, as sea access is only possible each summer for up to ten weeks.

The post Gekko exec on the challenges of working in the Arctic appeared first on MINING.com.

…read more

Source:: Infomine

The post Gekko exec on the challenges of working in the Arctic appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst.

Is This an $8 Trillion Opportunity?

subscription services 1

By Matthew Carr

Last week, Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) CEO Jeff Bezos was briefly the wealthiest man in the world.

He momentarily inched past Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) CEO Bill Gates. And in the process, Bezos became the first person ever to be worth more than $90 billion.

Three of the top five wealthiest people in the world – Gates, Bezos and Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg – are founders of tech companies.

More importantly, their companies are at the forefront of the changing economic landscape.

And one of the biggest drivers of growth for companies is our continued transition to the Subscription Economy.

One of the keys to Amazon’s retail-side success is its Prime service… a yearly membership, just like what you get from Costco (Nasdaq: COST) or BJ’s Wholesale.

That model is nothing new. Amazon didn’t invent the wheel.

Amazon has 85 million Prime members today. That’s a 35% increase over the 63 million the company had last year.

And the number has more than doubled in the past two years.

These are essential to Amazon, as Prime members spend almost twice as much as non-members.

Costco has roughly 85 million members. And there are probably a lot of us who are members of both.

Microsoft is cashing in on this trend, too. You no longer go to the store and buy a copy of Office. You pay an annual subscription fee. And it automatically renews.

We’ve transitioned to a subscription-based economy.

You can get a subscription to meal kits, like Blue Apron (NYSE: APRN) and its host of competitors I wrote about last week. The same goes for clothes, toilet paper, pet food, razors and toys.

You can even pay $1,500 per month for a Cadillac subscription, allowing you to drive multiple models.

[iu-adbox]

Even machinery manufacturers like Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) offer data analytics on their equipment. And robotics companies like ABB (NYSE: ABB) are transitioning to a services model.

In fact, Zuora’s CEO, Tien Tzuo, believes $8 trillion worth of economic activity can transition from traditional sales to a pay-as-you-go service/subscription model.

Year to date, shares of Adobe (Nasdaq: ADBE), Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) and Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: EA) are leaving the broader markets in the dust.

In fact, shares of Adobe, Netflix and Electronic Arts are up more than 40% apiece…

That’s because these companies are benefiting from the transition to the Subscription Economy.

Media companies, like Netflix and Sirius XM, are at the forefront of this. The cord-cutters, who are ditching cable in droves, have more options than ever.

Netflix is right there benefiting, along with Hulu, Sling TV, Amazon Prime TV, Pluto TV and a host of other options.

In 2013, Adobe switched to a monthly subscription model for its Creative Cloud suite, which includes iconic programs like Photoshop and Illustrator. Since then, annual revenue has grown 44.4%, from $4.055 billion in 2013 to $5.854 billion in 2016.

And the company reported record revenue of $1.77 billion in the second quarter. That’s a 26.7% increase year over year.

Electronic Arts has cut out the middleman… which is why gaming retail companies …read more

Source:: Investment You

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