The Healthcare Vote… and My Depressing Lunch With Senator Mike Lee

By Alexander Green A titanic threat looms over U.S. financial markets. Last week’s failed healthcare vote in the Senate proves it. And my lunch in Las Vegas with Republican Senator Mike Lee of Utah the week before further confirmed it. It is going to be not just difficult to reform the nation’s out-of-control entitlement spending. It may not even be politically possible. At least, not until it’s too late. Let me back up and say this is not just about Obamacare. (In my view, there are parts that should be kept – like coverage for pre-existing conditions – and parts that should be changed or eliminated.) This is really about our current $106.9 trillion in unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. How is that figure calculated? By taking the total U.S. population, estimating average life spans and benefits, and then determining just how far receipts will fall short … Continue reading

How We Predicted One of the Biggest Stock Moves in History

By Greg Guenthner This post How We Predicted One of the Biggest Stock Moves in History appeared first on Daily Reckoning. It happened right in front of you. Did you take advantage of it? Tuesday evening, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported earnings for its fiscal third quarter. The numbers were solid, but the price reaction was off the charts. Apple opened trading about 6% higher on Wednesday. That’s a huge gap higher for a massive stock like Apple. The move added about $40 billion in market capitalization to the giant tech company overnight. In fact, it was one of the biggest stock moves in history based on the amount of value created. And you had a sneak preview right here in these pages… Remember? Back on June 15, our in-house quant, Jonas Elmerraji, shared a buy signal that was triggering in Apple based on the proprietary indicator he’d developed. Simply put, … Continue reading

Trump’s New Motto: “Make The Dollar Weak Again”

By Zach Scheidt This post Trump’s New Motto: “Make The Dollar Weak Again” appeared first on Daily Reckoning. “I like [Janet Yellen]. I like her demeanor. I think she’s done a good job. I’d like to see rates stay low. She’s always been – you know, she’s historically been a low-interest-rate person, a believer.”1 Those are the words of your president when asked if he will re-appoint Janet Yellen as the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, or pursue other candidates. Trump mentioned that there are a couple of other candidates on the docket. But one thing is very clear — Trump will definitely appoint a Fed Chair who will favor low interest rates. And that means there is no relief in sight for savers desperate for higher interest payments from their retirement nest eggs… Fed Loses Independence, And the Dollar Loses Value The Federal Reserve was designed to be a politically independent … Continue reading

Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 3 Aug, 2017

By Cory Looking ahead to tomorrow’s job number for gold and the USD Craig Hemke, Editor of joins to look ahead to the job numbers being released tomorrow. We assess the potential impact on the metals and the US dollar. With the dollar threatening to close the week at the lowest level since 2014 tomorrow could be a very important day. Click here to visit Craig’s website for more PM focused commentary. Download audio file (2017_08_03-Craig-Hemke.mp3) …read more Source:: The Korelin Economics Report The post Craig Hemke from TF Metals Report – Thu 3 Aug, 2017 appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst. … Continue reading

How The Fed Enabled Corporate Kingpins To Scalp Billions

By David Stockman This post How The Fed Enabled Corporate Kingpins To Scalp Billions appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Here’s a comparison that is surely vertigo inducing. On the one hand, the financial system is implicitly held to be so incredibly stable and healthy that volatility on the S&P 500 has been driven to 50-year lows. Indeed, that lovely condition is apparently expected to persist indefinitely as signaled by implied volatility. During the last 6,000 trading days (since the early 1990s), the VIX Index closed below 10 on 26 occasions or just 0.4% of the time. No less than 16 out of those 26‘below-10′ closes occurred in the last three months! Yet this insensible bullish calm is happening even as Wall Street is showing itself to be in the throes of unhinged leveraged speculation. With respect to the unhinged part, consider an incisive post by Wolf Richter on the present … Continue reading

Seasonality: Will Patterns that Worked in the Past Also Work in the Future?

By Dimitri Speck Historians of the Future Every investor makes trading decisions based on what happened in the past – there is no other way. What really interests us is the future though. After all, what happens in the future ultimately determines investment success. When in doubt, you can always try to reach the pasture… In Human Action, Ludwig von Mises described stock market speculators as akin to “historians of the future”. This is without a doubt the most trenchant definition of speculators anyone has ever come up with. What Mises wanted to convey is that the skills of speculators are of a thymological nature, i.e., similar to historians, they have to be aware of the data and have to be able to apply “understanding” in order to be successful in their task. The meaning of understanding in this context is probably best explained by an example: a historian may … Continue reading