This post Jim Rickards’ Blockbuster Election Prediction appeared first on Daily Reckoning.
The presidential election is now less than three months away. A lot can happen in three months. But today I’m issuing a blockbuster election prediction that might shock you.
I’m not doing it to attract attention or to be controversial. I’m doing it because I believe the data point in that direction.
I’ll reveal my prediction in a moment. First let’s step back and look at the bigger picture.
First of all, when you want to know what’s really going on, pay no attention to the media, the elites or any conventional wisdom.
The Echo Chamber
The elites may have their plans, but they exist in a bubble of other elites and don’t get enough real world input to understand events. They arrive at conclusions in an echo chamber and just repeat them, but they’re always wrong.
The few who really do control events keep their cards close to the vest and don’t discuss their plans publicly.
The media are either in on the joke as accomplices on the elite plan or are just a megaphone for the elite echo chamber.
There’s no independent thought or real investigative journalist left (with just a few exceptions). Conventional wisdom is just that — convention. It cannot go outside the box.
Talking heads on TV would rather all be wrong together than try to be right if it means going out on a limb. So, you really can’t expect reliable election coverage from the media.
The Media Really Doesn’t Understand the American People
And they really don’t understand the American people.
Americans are amazingly pragmatic when it comes to elections. The politicians, campaign managers and pundits may use a wide array of digital analytics, huge media buys, polls, focus groups, and websites to shape public opinion, but voters remain balanced and focused on what counts.
Voters don’t care about the horserace polls and constant chatter about who’s up or who’s down. They focus on the candidate’s character, performance and campaign promises for the next few years.
These key factors do not always cut the same way. Many dislike Trump’s personal conduct, but think highly of his policies of lower taxes, less regulation and bringing back American jobs from China. They will make up their minds on that basis.
The bottom line is that the American people are much smarter than the political elites give credit and less susceptible to the attack ads, debates and name-calling that go on.
One trait that Americans look for in a candidate and can spot easily is fear. If Americans detect fear in a candidate they will smell trouble and possibly vote for his opponent.
Biden Is Confined to His Basement
It certainly seems that Biden is afraid to come out of his basement. He’s afraid to do press conferences where softball questions are not scripted in advance with friendly reporters. (Even when the questions are scripted, Biden has difficulty answering).
He’s afraid to go to the Democratic convention in person where he would have to face other officials and the media.
When Americans smell fear, they ask: Why?
Why would Biden be afraid to come out of his house and face the rough-and-tumble of American politics including reporters, debates, voters and opposing candidates?
By now the answer is clear.
The sad answer is that Biden’s cognitive ability has declined radically. The decline has gone so far and so fast, he can’t handle any of that exposure.
“Step Function”
It’s evident Biden’s suffered a major drop in his cognition recently (on top of the prior drops). Incidentally, he’s not suffering from a continuous downhill slide. Instead, it’s what’s called a “step function.”
That means the mental ability drops suddenly, then stabilizes or plateaus for a while, then drops again. It never improves, but it can appear stable for a time until the next sudden drop comes.
Any effort to get out in public would make his deficiencies crystal clear to all. His handlers and the media really can’t hide it any longer.
He can do videos from his basement hideaway (assisted by teleprompters, rehearsals and probably some medication) but that’s a far cry from meeting people in person, answering impromptu questions and dealing with the unexpected. (Remember the “lying dog-faced pony soldier?”)
Biden’s Handlers Are in Charge
Biden’s campaign has to rely on surrogates or substitutes to do in-person events. Every campaign uses surrogates, but that is done in addition to the candidate not in lieu of the candidate.
In this case, the surrogates like Jill Biden, Terry McAuliffe and Biden’s press secretary are hitting the talk shows. Biden can’t do that himself.
Meanwhile, it’s now being reported that Biden will not be going to Milwaukee for the Democratic convention. The convention was already virtual, but a few top names were expected to show up for keynote and acceptance speeches. Now that’s off.
But Biden won’t be able to hide until Election Day. Which brings me to my big prediction…
A Blockbuster Prediction
My expectation now is that Biden will soon be replaced as the nominee soon. Democratic insiders will probably force him out of the race in the next week or so.
They don’t want to risk exposing him to the American people before the election. For Democrats, the stakes are simply too high.
One public incident or serious slip-up is all it could take to kill his chances in the election. The American people simply aren’t going to elect someone who they feel is mentally unfit for office.
Many voters obviously dislike Trump. But, no one could credibly argue that he’s suffering from cognitive decline.
So what’s going to happen?
Democrat power brokers Will Pick Nominee
The Democrat power brokers (Tom Perez, Donna Brazile, Valerie Jarrett, Philippe Reins, AOC, John Podesta and a few others) will get in a room and pick a new nominee.
Biden will “release” his delegates, and party leadership will direct the super-delegates to support that choice. This will start a stampede among the former Biden delegates.
The Bernie Sanders delegates will already be onboard because they’ll be part of the consultation. Then the new nominee will pick a VP and the “convention” will tidy things up. The race will continue from there.
Alternatively, the power brokers could allow Biden to get the nomination and then remove him as nominee before the debates. That’s even easier because there are no delegates involved. It’s just an executive committee decision the candidate cannot refuse.
Still, the process will be a shock to millions of Americans who’ve been expecting a Biden candidacy.
Get Ready for a Bumpy Ride
By the way, my analysis has nothing to do with partisan politics. I wasn’t going to vote for Biden anyway, but it gives me no joy to see him decline like this.
He should be allowed to withdraw from the race with dignity and retire to face his health issues in private. This will not be easy, but it is necessary.
Does all this sound far-fetched to you? Well, it isn’t. And you can actually see this coming a mile away if you know what to look for.
Investors should prepare now for the political shocks to come. That means going with larger than normal allocations to cash and some hedging assets such as gold. Then get ready for a bumpy ride until Election Day.
Start your watches — and check your portfolio.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
for The Daily Reckoning
The post Jim Rickards’ Blockbuster Election Prediction appeared first on Daily Reckoning.