Surging profits seen as no safety net for winning gold stocks

Don’t be fooled by gold’s rally when Yamana Gold and Agnico Eagle kick off earnings for the industry this week. While the metal’s prices are surging, many of the companies have shut down mines amid the coronavirus pandemic, making this reporting season anything but a sure bet.

Boosted by a jump of about 20% in the metal’s price during the first quarter from a year ago, companies such as Newmont and Barrick Gold are expected to report a double-digit increase in earnings, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg showed. That stands out in a market where S&P 500 profits are heading for the worst contraction since the global financial crisis.

Whether that can last is another question, according to some analysts. From Yamana Gold and Agnico Eagle, miners have reduced or halted production as governments impose emergency regulations to stop the spread of the coronavirus. As a result, investors will likely scrutinize their ability to maintain a steady production. Meanwhile, the use of cash will be closely watched so that the industry doesn’t repeat the mistake in the early 2010s, when a surge in gold prices led to a ramp-up in capital spending, a glut of supply, and eventually a crash in prices and loads of bad debt.