Global
nickel production will drop significantly over 2020, as major producer
Indonesia’s nickel ore export ban comes into effect, Fitch analysts assert in a
recent report.
This drop
will be slightly offset by the impact of rising production growth in the
Philippines where some currently suspended mines will become operational again,
while the country aims to plug the likely supply gap caused by the Indonesian
export ban, Fitch says.
Analysts maintain other major producers such as Russia, Australia and Canada will maintain stable production growth year-on-year.
Global
nickel ore production will fall by 15.4% y-o-y in 2020 as a result of the
introduction of a nickel ore export ban in Indonesia, despite rising production
growth in competitor the Philippines as well as steady output in other major
producers, Australia, Canada and Russia.
In the
longer term, Fitch forecasts global nickel production to grow by an annual
average rate of 1.7% y-o-y over 2020-2029, a significant slowdown from the 6.7%
y-o-y average achieved over 2010-2019, which was boosted by higher nickel
prices at the time and strong Indonesian output before another export ban in
2014.
By 2029, Fitch expects global annual nickel production to reach 2.8mnt, up from 2.1mnt in 2020.
Indonesia
surpassed the Philippines as the largest global producer in 2017 following the
introduction of stringent environmental regulations, but Fitch analysts believe
the tables will turn from 2020 onwards with the Philippines set to regain its
spot as the largest global producer as the Indonesian government restricts
exports of nickel ore.
Read the full report here.