The Eskom Technical Review Team, appointed in March to provide an independent assessment of the performance of the State-owned utility’s power stations, says several coal plants can, with strong and empowered leadership, meet the much-vaunted energy availability factor (EAF) goal of 80%.
It has acknowledged, however, that some of the older stations are unlikely to ever again be in a position to meet the target.
The 80% EAF target has eluded Eskom for several years, partly owing to the advanced age of various coal plants and partly because of insufficient maintenance. More than half of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations are over 37 years old, with the oldest being Komati at 55 years.
In fact, 2012 is the last time the target (which in the early 2000s was far higher at 90%) was met, leading many energy experts to question whether it would not be more prudent, for planning purposes, to factor in a lower, but more stable EAF assumption. The Integrated Resource Plan could then be adjusted to reflect the introduction of supply alternatives earlier than would have been the case had the plants met the 80% target.