The Daily Reckoning

Beware the “Adjusted” Yield Curve

Brian Maher, Daily Reckoning feed, Recession, The Daily Reckoning, yield curve /

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A revision to yesterday’s recession forecast, based upon the “adjusted” yield curve… Why the adjusted yield curve tells a much deeper story than the standard yield curve… “The “shot clock” started six months ago, putting us “in the zone” for a recession watch”…

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Has Recession Already Started?

Brian Maher, Daily Reckoning feed, Fed, Jerome Powell, Recession, The Daily Reckoning, the Federal Reserve, Trump /

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“U.S. recession probably started in the current quarter”… The bond market is giving its strongest warning since the financial crisis… Why President Trump should beg Jerome Powell not to raise rates anytime soon…

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Debt “Death Spiral” Approaching

Brian Maher, Daily Reckoning feed, Debt, Deficit Spending, The Daily Reckoning, trade war /

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The “death spiral” — when every public dollar Uncle Sam borrows must service his debt… The tragic math of deficit spending… The year when the United States falls into the “death spiral”…

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Prepare for Trench Warfare

Brian Maher, Daily Reckoning feed, The Daily Reckoning, trade war, Trump /

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Markets rebound after yesterday’s bloodbath… “Trump’s escalation comes at an awkward time, but if push comes to shove, [China is] quite capable of supporting growth through more investment and credit”… Why Trump may feel more pressure to reach a trade deal than China…

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