How to Invest in a Difficult Market

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How to Invest in a Difficult Market By Casey Research Many experts hold dim views of the current state of the US economy—but what’s a prudent investor to do to make a profit? Find out what the blue-ribbon faculty of economists and investment pros at the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit thought. Lacy Hunt, senior executive VP of Hoisington Investment Management Company and former chief economist at the Dallas Fed, says the main reason that the global economy continues to falter is that all countries borrow too much and save too little. “275% total debt to GDP is the critical threshold. Every world economy of importance is above that level and moving higher.” He finds today’s monetary policy “impotent.” The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are trying to solve the problem of too much debt by borrowing more, which has short-term benefits, but will be disastrous … Continue reading

Gold Mining Companies Selling for Pennies on the Dollar

By Michael Lombardi, MBA The fundamentals for higher gold bullion prices continue to impress. The table below illustrates the output from U.S. mines in the first six months of 2014 compared to the first six months of 2013. In the below chart, we quickly see that since March of 2014, production of the precious metal has been quickly declining. Meanwhile, on the demand side of the equation, we see increased demand for gold bullion from the East—especially from China. China recently launched a gold bullion market on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) for international investors. The goal of this exchange is to gain more control over the price of the precious metal in yuan (the official currency of China). China wants to have price control over gold bullion, just like the West does with their daily settings in New York and London. ___________________________________________________ U.S. Gold Mine Output, First Six Months … Continue reading

How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis?

header-caseyHow Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis?
By Casey Research

The Fed claims that signs of economic stress are very low, but savvy investors feel otherwise. With geopolitical unrest expanding and central banks doing the opposite of the right things, is a currency crisis barreling toward us? See what Mish Shedlock had to say about the state of world finance at the 2014 Casey Research Summit:

Even though the Summit is long over, you can still benefit from every presenter… every panel discussion… every investment recommendation. Order the 2014 Summit Audio Collection and you’ll receive all of that, plus all slides used in the presentations and a bonus highlight reel. Choose between instantly available MP3 files or CDs… or get both for maximum convenience. Order now so that you’re well positioned to thrive in the coming crisis economy.

The article How Can There Not Be a Currency Crisis? was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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John Kaiser’s Tips for Escaping the Resource Sector Swamp Alive

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Source: JT Long of The Mining Report (10/14/14) What if the goldbugs are wrong and fiat currency isn’t going to throw the world into hyperinflation? What if, instead, a steadily growing economy and a new awareness of the importance of having security of supply for critical metals, along with a big exciting discovery that heats up the resource sector, are what pull sinking gold and silver prices and their related mining companies out of the muck? If so, John Kaiser tells The Mining Report that he has set his sights on the dozen companies that would star in this horror-turned-romantic epic adventure. Crocodile The Mining Report: At the Cambridge House Canadian Investment Conference in Toronto, you talked about escaping the resource sector swamp. Why do you call the current market a swamp? John Kaiser: There are four key narratives that dominate the resource sector, in particular the junior resource sector. … Continue reading

Three Companies that Could Turn the Gold Trend Upside Down

H.C. Wainwright Analyst Jeff Wright Names Three Companies that Could Turn the Gold Trend Upside Down Source: JT Long of The Mining Report (10/15/14) Fans of gold have been following Federal Reserve Board announcements for any sign of relief, but H.C. Wainwright & Co. Analyst Jeff Wright says change may be a long time coming. That is why in this interview with The Gold Report, Wright is focusing on three companies that can be successful even in a low gold price environment. He also offers three questions every investor should ask before buying a junior mining stock. Upside Down The Gold Report: What do the Fed’s recent statements about the timing of possible future interest rate hikes mean for the price of gold? Jeff Wright: The Fed is almost finished buying mortgage-backed securities in an attempt to stabilize the market. We anticipate it will gradually increase interest rates by Q2/15. … Continue reading

The Asian Age of Transformation

The Asian Age of Transformation By Casey Research Financial pundits are divided on Asia. Some believe China and Japan are going to have their day in the sun, while others fear that economic mismanagement will lead to a similar collapse as we’ve seen in the US in 2008. Here are some opinions of prominent investment experts from the just-concluded Casey Research Fall Summit. John Mauldin, chairman of Mauldin Economics and bestselling author of Endgame and Code Red, thinks we’re in an age of transformation. “Keynesians rule the world, whether we like or not, so we should invest with that reality in mind.” He believes that of the major developed economies, Japan is furthest down the road to ruin. It’s literally a dying country, growing older more quickly than any country in recorded history. Mauldin predicts that the yen will decline to at least 200; he hedged his own mortgage by … Continue reading

Sea Change

Thoughts from the Frontline: Sea Change   By John Mauldin You don’t need a weatherman To know which way the wind blows.– Bob Dylan, “Subterranean Homesick Blues,” 1965Full fathom five thy father lies. Of his bones are coral made. Those are pearls that were his eyes. Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea-change Into something rich and strange.– William Shakespeare, The Tempest Did you feel the economic weather change this week? The shift was subtle, like fall tippy-toeing in after a pleasant summer to surprise us, but I think we’ll look back and say this was the moment when that last grain of sand fell onto the sandpile, triggering many profound fingers of instability in a pile that has long been close to collapse. This is the grain of sand that sets off those long chains of volatility that have been gathering for the last five … Continue reading

Rick Rule: Are the Worst of Times Yet to Come?

By Henry Bonner (hbonner@sprottglobal.com) “I plan on using this recording a few years from now as marketing material,” said Rick, speaking to current clients and friends of Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd., the firm he founded in 1994. “What I’m going to talk about today I think will seem like a prescient market call three or four years from now.” His recent update was about putting the ‘carnage’ and heavy damage to people’s natural resources portfolio over the last two years, and acutely in the last couple of weeks, in perspective. “It’s times like these that you’ll look back on as the ‘good old days,’” Rick suggests. “In 2017 or 2018, I believe we will think of 2014 as the days when you could buy companies with the most compelling projects and management teams at 75 percent discounts from their previous highs. ‘Back then, we could see a company fall … Continue reading

Must Read: 10 Companies Adrian Day Sees as Stable in a World that Is Not

Manager Adrian Day has a ready answer for investors wondering why the gold price has been so depressed. It is the strength of the dollar. The Bank of Japan can act like a drunken sailor buying bonds at negative interest rates and the European Central Bank can do all the quantitative easing it wants, but as long as the dollar remains high, the gold price will suffer. That is why, in this interview with The Gold Report, Day focuses on 10 companies that can remain stable at almost any price. Unstable world The Gold Report: Gold has been bouncing around $1,200 an ounce ($1,200/oz) for a while. Why? Adrian Day: Until the dollar shot off like a rocket in July, gold had been up and down, perhaps disappointing some people. It closed the second quarter at significantly over $1,300/oz. Since then, both the euro and the yen have fallen and … Continue reading

The Broken State and How to Fix

The Broken State and How to Fix It

By Casey Research

The United States of America is not what it used to be. Unsustainable mountains of debt, continuous meddling by the government and Fed to “stimulate the economy,” and the US dollar’s dwindling status as the world’s reserve currency are very real threats to Americans’ standard of living. Here are some opinions from the recently concluded Casey Research Fall Summit on the state of the state and how to fix it.

Marc Victor, a criminal defense attorney from Arizona and a staunch liberty advocate, says there’s really no such thing as “the state”—“it’s just some people bossing other people around.”

Not everyone wants to fix things, he says; the bosses like the status quo. For example, aside from drug lords, DEA agents are the ones benefiting most from the “War on Drugs.”

Victor believes that democracy and freedom are incompatible, since “democracy is majority rule, and freedom is self-rule.” If you want to bring true freedom to America, he says, winning hearts and minds is the only way to reboot this country and create a free society.

Paul Rosenberg, adventure capitalist, Casey Research contributor, and editor of “A Free Man’s Take,” views America’s future similarly. He thinks the United States is in a state of entropy.

The bad news, says Rosenberg, is that there will be no revolution. The good news is that the peak of citizens’ obedience to the state is behind us, and people are getting fed up with the government’s shenanigans.

Real change is slow, he says, so we must work persistently to create a better world.

Stephen Moore, chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, says the problem is liberal economic policy: Red states in the US, he says, have blown away blue states in job creation since 1990. Texas alone accounts for the entire net growth of the US economy over the past five years.

As another proof point in favor of a free-market economy, Moore emphasizes that both Obama and Reagan took office during terrible economic times. While Obama has raised taxes and instituted Obamacare, Reagan cut taxes and regulation. As a result, the Reagan economic recovery was almost twice as robust as the Obama “recovery.”

One of the US’s biggest problems, says Moore, is that companies can’t reinvest profits because dividend, capital gains, and income taxes all have increased under Obama. Corporate taxes in the rest of the world have dramatically declined in the last 25 years, but in the US, they haven’t budged. The average corporate tax rate around the world is 24%—in the US, it’s 38%.

Overall, though, Moore is bullish on the US economy. American companies, he says, are the best-run in the world, if only the US government would adopt less economically destructive policies.

Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research, legendary speculator, and best-selling financial author, isn’t so optimistic. First of all, he says, we’re in the Greater Depression right now, which began in 2008. He fears it’s too late to repair America, but says if anyone would attempt to do so, the following seven-step program would help:

  • Allow the collapse of “zombie companies” (companies that are only being held up by government handouts and other cash infusions).
  • Abolish all regulatory agencies.
  • Abolish the Federal Reserve.
  • Cut the size of the military by at least 90%.
  • Sell all US government assets.
  • Eliminate the income tax.
  • Default on the national debt.

Of course, says Casey, that’s not going to happen, so individual investors shouldn’t hope for a political solution or waste their time and money trying to stop the inevitable collapse of the US economy. The only way to save yourself and your assets is to internationalize.

He recommends owning significant assets outside your home country: for example, by buying foreign real estate. You should also buy and store gold, “the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.”

Casey’s suggestions include going short bubbles that are about to burst (like Japanese bonds denominated in yen), selling expensive assets like collectible cars and expensive real estate in major cities, as well as looking toward places like Africa as contrarian investment opportunities.

Nick Giambruno, senior editor of International Man, agrees that internationalizing your wealth—and yourself—is the most prudent way to go for today’s high-net-worth investors. It ensures that “no single government can control your destiny,” and that you put your money, business, and yourself where they are treated best.

You should internationalize each of these six aspects of your life, says Giambruno: our assets; your citizenship; your income/business; your legal residency; your lifestyle residency; and your digital presence.

Regarding your assets, you can find better capitalized, more liquid banks abroad, and using international brokerage accounts can provide you access to new investment markets.

To hear all of Nick Giambruno’s detailed tips on how to go global, as well as every single presentation of the Summit, order your 26+-hour Summit Audio Collection now. It’s available in CD and/or MP3 format. Learn more here.

The article The Broken State and How to Fix It was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

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