{"id":843424,"date":"2018-07-12T21:14:52","date_gmt":"2018-07-12T21:14:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=843424"},"modified":"2018-07-12T21:14:52","modified_gmt":"2018-07-12T21:14:52","slug":"i-dont-know-about-you-but-im-worried-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=843424","title":{"rendered":"\u201cI Don\u2019t Know About You, but I\u2019m Worried\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Brian Maher<\/a><\/span> <\/p>\n

This post \u201cI Don’t Know About You, but I’m Worried\u201d<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat trade war?\u201d asked an Op-Ed writer in Tuesday’s Washington Post, <\/i>triumphantly. <\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cInvestors on Monday continued shrugging off fears that President Trump’s escalation of trade hostilities will put a dent in share prices.\u201d<\/p>\n

We almost pity the poor fellow \u2014 all that egg he had scrape from his face.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones tumbled 219 trade-warring points yesterday \u2014 and once again turned negative on the year.<\/p>\n

Damage spread far\u2026 and wide\u2026 like a virus unleashed in a busy airport:<\/p>\n

S&P \u2014 down.<\/p>\n

Nasdaq \u2014 down.<\/p>\n

Global stock markets \u2014 down.<\/p>\n

Oil, gold, commodities in general \u2014 down.<\/p>\n

Copper, which many consider a true barometer of global growth, plunged as much as 4% yesterday.<\/p>\n

The one major exception?<\/p>\n

The dollar \u2014 the dollar was up \u2014 which partly explains the commodities shellacking.<\/p>\n

But the central reason for yesterday’s far-flung panic is trade\u2026<\/p>\n

The president threatened additional tariffs on another $200 billion of imported Chinese goods.<\/p>\n

This, coming days after the U.S. and China imposed $34 billion of tariffs on the other’s goods.<\/p>\n

This, coming as Trump harrumphs he may seek tariffs on over $450 billion of Chinese wares.<\/p>\n

Markets made good many of yesterday’s losses today.<\/p>\n

They nonetheless remain, to cadge a hackneyed phrase, \u201con edge.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe view the White House’s announcement of an additional $200 billion round of tariffs as significant in escalating the tensions closer to a full-blown tit-for-tat trade war,\u201d warns Bart Melek of TD Securities.<\/p>\n

Commerzbank analysts affirm:<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is growing concern among market participants that the trade war will affect the real economy and put the brakes on global economic growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

The way ahead is a gauntlet\u2026 and arrows come zinging from every direction\u2026<\/p>\n

To trade wars we must add rate hikes. Quantitative tightening. Inverting yield curves. Overvalued stocks. Sky-shooting deficits. More.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don’t know about you, but I’m worried,\u201d confesses Kevin Muir, market strategist at East West Investment Management, listing a parade of horribles:<\/p>\n

\n

The economic cycle is long in the tooth. Equity valuations are stretched. The yield curve is flattening. Emerging markets and other liquidity-sensitive markets are sagging. The Federal Reserve is raising rates while also attempting the never-before-accomplished feat of reversing a decade of quantitative easing \u2014 seemingly oblivious to the hornet’s nest they are walking into. And President Trump seems determined to antagonize as many trading partners as possible before the summer holidays begin in earnest.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Sell everything is the message \u2014 include the sink in the kitchen, the floorboards, the wife, the children.<\/p>\n

But is that the message?<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough every bone in my body wants to sell this market,\u201d Muir anguishes, \u201cI am petrified this trade is so obvious, it can’t be right.\u201d<\/p>\n

It can’t be right?<\/p>\n

What about the economic cycle you mentioned\u2026 equity valuations\u2026 the yield curve\u2026 emerging markets\u2026 the Federal Reserve\u2026 Donald Trump’s antagonizings?<\/p>\n

\n

I know all the reasons why the stock market should go down. The investor in me agrees 100% with the skeptics who worry we are late-cycle and that risks are rising. But the trader in me is even more concerned that <\/i>everyone is already positioned for this outcome\u2026 I don’t think the Market Gods will allow this many to catch the top. Markets don’t roll over with the vast majority of market participants calling for a correction. No, they top with buyers being <\/i>absolutely convinced the only way is up.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The consensus-busting conclusion?<\/p>\n

\u201cThat path is higher \u2014 not lower.\u201d<\/p>\n

A contrarian we have here.<\/p>\n

Many boastful types bellow contrarian gloats and gurgles \u2014 \u201cI never follow the crowd. I always do the opposite. I’m my own man.\u201d<\/p>\n

In reality\u2026 few can summon the courage to stray from the herd’s comforting embrace.<\/p>\n

The pull proves irresistible for most.<\/p>\n

Do you have the nerve?<\/p>\n

Regards,<\/p>\n

Brian Maher
\nManaging editor, The Daily Reckoning<\/i><\/p>\n

The post \u201cI Don’t Know About You, but I’m Worried\u201d<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

…read more<\/a> <\/p>\n

From:: Daily Reckoning<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Brian Maher This post \u201cI Don’t Know About You, but I’m Worried\u201d appeared first on Daily Reckoning. \u201cWhat trade war?\u201d asked an Op-Ed writer in Tuesday’s Washington Post, triumphantly. \u201cInvestors on Monday continued shrugging off fears that President Trump’s escalation of trade hostilities will put a dent in share prices.\u201d We almost pity the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[366],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/843424"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=843424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/843424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=843424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=843424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=843424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}