{"id":644628,"date":"2018-03-06T22:06:16","date_gmt":"2018-03-06T22:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=644628"},"modified":"2018-03-06T22:06:16","modified_gmt":"2018-03-06T22:06:16","slug":"is-trump-bluffing-on-tariffs-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=644628","title":{"rendered":"Is Trump Bluffing on Tariffs?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Unemployment<\/a><\/div>\n

By Brian Maher<\/a><\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

This post Is Trump Bluffing on Tariffs? appeared first on Daily Reckoning.<\/p>\n

Is Trump backing down on tariffs?<\/p>\n

His proposal sent the Dow Jones 420 points lower last Thursday.<\/p>\n

This weekend, the president pledged he’s \u201cnot backing down.\u201d<\/p>\n

How did markets react yesterday?<\/p>\n

As if Trump will back down \u2014 or at least back off.<\/p>\n

The Dow ended the day 337 points higher.<\/p>\n

The S&P gained 30 points; the Nasdaq, 73.<\/p>\n

Among the day’s biggest winners were Boeing, Harley-Davidson and Caterpillar\u2026 all potential casualties of the tariffs.<\/p>\n

Stocks ended the day higher again today.<\/p>\n

Why the turnaround?<\/p>\n

The professionals think Trump left the negotiating door ajar yesterday morning when he tweeted:<\/p>\n

Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum will only come off if new & fair NAFTA agreement is signed.<\/p>\n

\u201cSeeing Caterpillar and Harley-Davidson trade higher tells me that traders think this will end diplomatically,\u201d coos Quincy Krosby, Prudential Financial’s chief market strategist.<\/p>\n

She claims Trump’s comments showed \u201cflexibility.\u201d<\/p>\n

We’re not half so sure.<\/p>\n

It seems Trump’s \u201cflexibility\u201d has Canada and Mexico doing the bending.<\/p>\n

Neither is inclined to do much, if Reuters is to be credited:<\/p>\n

A move by Washington to link the steel and aluminum tariffs to progress on NAFTA was rebuffed by Canada and Mexico.<\/p>\n

We don’t know.<\/p>\n

Perhaps we are seeing the master negotiator at his tricks, the Art of the Deal taking form before us.<\/p>\n

And maybe a compromise will follow.<\/p>\n

But this we do know:<\/p>\n

The next test for markets comes this Friday\u2026<\/p>\n

Friday is when February’s employment numbers are released.<\/p>\n

January’s employment numbers were the supposed catalyst for last month’s spine-tingling \u201ccorrection.\u201d<\/p>\n

They revealed an unexpected jump in average hourly earnings.<\/p>\n

Hourly wages soared to a 2.9% annualized rate \u2014 an 8.5-year high.<\/p>\n

That raised the specter of inflation\u2026 and aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has in fact claimed that \u201cinflation is moving up to target.\u201d<\/p>\n

Yields on the bellwether 10-year Treasury spiked\u2026 investors panicked\u2026 and stocks corrected.<\/p>\n

Stocks uncorrected in the weeks that followed, recapturing most of their losses \u2014 until the tariff news broke last Thursday.<\/p>\n

If Friday’s report reveals February hourly wage growth exceeds 3%, it could confirm the Fed’s inflation expectations.<\/p>\n

And it will likely raise rates aggressively this year.<\/p>\n

Markets could therefore sell off once again\u2026 and for the same reason they sold off last month.<\/p>\n

MarketWatch:<\/p>\n

\u201cAll bets are off if [the] number tops 3% \u2014 another Wall Street sell-off could be in the cards.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wages last increased at a 3% annual rate, MarketWatch reminds us, in 2007 \u2014 immediately prior to the Great Recession.<\/p>\n

Why should that matter?<\/p>\n

January unemployment also rang in at a hale and hearty 4.1%.<\/p>\n

If February’s dips to 4% or lower\u2026 it may augur ill for the economy, oddly enough.<\/p>\n

Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce:<\/p>\n

If we look historically at other times when the unemployment rate has fallen below 4%, it’s times where it was the boom phase just before recession or just after a major war period\u2026 It’s almost a precursor for a recession or a precursor for another slumping economy.<\/p>\n

The evidence, in graphic detail:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

If you’ve ever thought the Fed’s timing \u2026read more<\/a> <\/p>\n

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed<\/a><\/p>\n

The post Is Trump Bluffing on Tariffs?<\/a><\/a> appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Brian Maher This post Is Trump Bluffing on Tariffs? appeared first on Daily Reckoning. Is Trump backing down on tariffs? His proposal sent the Dow Jones 420 points lower last Thursday. This weekend, the president pledged he’s \u201cnot backing down.\u201d How did markets react yesterday? As if Trump will back down \u2014 or at […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644628"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=644628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/644628\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=644628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=644628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=644628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}