{"id":603383,"date":"2017-12-19T14:23:44","date_gmt":"2017-12-19T14:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=603383"},"modified":"2017-12-19T14:23:44","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T14:23:44","slug":"stocks-in-2018-the-rally-goes-crazy-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=603383","title":{"rendered":"Stocks in 2018: The Rally Goes Crazy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By Greg Guenthner<\/a><\/span> <\/p>\n

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This post Stocks in 2018: The Rally Goes Crazy appeared first on Daily Reckoning.<\/p>\n

We’re kicking off a wild week of stock market predictions in style today.<\/p>\n

Our first swing at a market forecast for 2018 begins with stocks. Specifically, I’m talking about the S&P 500.<\/p>\n

Most serious analysts have already said they believe 2018 will be a decent year for equities. The predictions we’ve read so far peg the S&P’s 2018 performance between 5% \u2013 8%. Another \u201caverage\u201d year for the averages\u2026<\/p>\n

But that’s not what I’m seeing.<\/p>\n

Yes, I believe the major averages will finish in the green when 2018 ends. But I don’t think we’ll see the S&P, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite churn out wimpy, single-digit gains. In fact, I see stocks finishing much, much higher.<\/p>\n

My first big prediction for 2018 is that the S&P 500 will finish higher by 20% or more, edging out this year’s returns to post an incredible two-year run approaching gains of 50%.<\/p>\n

I know that might sound crazy \u2014 especially since so many pundits and analysts are expecting stocks to cool off. But there are a couple of key facts about the current market rally that suggest we are still in the early phases of a melt-up move.<\/p>\n

First, it’s important to note that prior to breaking out to new highs in late 2016, the S&P 500 endured a choppy, two-year \u201cstealth bear\u201d market that featured major selloffs in speculative names such as biotech and small-cap stocks.<\/p>\n

The financial media loves to talk about how the major averages have enjoyed a massive bull run since the 2009 market bottom. One glance at this chart proves this is not the case.<\/p>\n

Stocks have not shot higher in a straight line for nine straight years. In fact, stocks have endured multiple pullbacks and corrections since 2009, including a drop of more than 19% in the S&P 500 during the summer of 2011 (which apparently doesn’t count as an official correction since it missed dipping 20% by the skin of its teeth).<\/p>\n

Furthermore, it’s important to measure the beginning of bull markets from where the averages first break out to new all-time high. That didn’t happen until 2013 for the S&P. So much for the theory that the current secular bull market is long in the tooth.<\/p>\n

Still not convinced stocks have more room to run? Consider these key data points from LPL Research’s Ryan Detrick:<\/p>\n

Including this year, the S&P has risen 20% or more 19 times. After each of these 20% rallies, the S&P was higher the very next year on 16 occasions, posting double-digit gains during ten of those years.<\/p>\n

While there’s no guarantee the S&P will repeat this year’s performance in 2018, it’s wouldn’t be an unprecedented market event.<\/p>\n

But there’s a catch to my market melt-up prediction\u2026<\/p>\n

It won’t be an easy ride.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a 5% pullback in more than 13 months. Over the next year, I’m guessing we’ll see at least two pullbacks of 5% or more.<\/p>\n

Each of these pullbacks will bring \u2026read more<\/a> <\/p>\n

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed<\/a><\/p>\n

The post <\/a>Stocks in 2018: The Rally Goes Crazy<\/a> appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Greg Guenthner This post Stocks in 2018: The Rally Goes Crazy appeared first on Daily Reckoning. We’re kicking off a wild week of stock market predictions in style today. Our first swing at a market forecast for 2018 begins with stocks. Specifically, I’m talking about the S&P 500. Most serious analysts have already said […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/603383"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=603383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/603383\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=603383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=603383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=603383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}