{"id":45153,"date":"2015-05-14T23:08:51","date_gmt":"2015-05-14T23:08:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=45153"},"modified":"2015-05-14T23:08:51","modified_gmt":"2015-05-14T23:08:51","slug":"the-next-gold-bull-market-starts-before-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=45153","title":{"rendered":"The Next Gold Bull Market Starts Before October"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/uq3mr-2\/CSW\"><br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/caseyresearch.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-64249 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/caseyresearch.jpeg\" alt=\"caseyresearch\" width=\"120\" height=\"120\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/uq3mr-2\/CSW\">The Next Gold Bull Market Starts Before October<\/a><\/h3>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Jeff Clark<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>I\u2019m going out on a limb: I think the next bull phase in the gold market gets underway before October.<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/trk.caseyresearch.com\/f\/?editorial=the-next-gold-bull-market-starts-before-october-1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<p>China.<\/p>\n<p>But not due to runaway demand\u2026<\/p>\n<p>At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum last month, China\u2019s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made it clear he believes the renminbi is \u201cready for reserve status.\u201d It would be a huge step for the Chinese currency, starting with the fact that it would be added to the basket of currencies IMF member countries can include in their official reserves. Billions would be invested in it.<\/p>\n<p>What was the IMF\u2019s reaction? \u201cWe welcome and share this objective,\u201d said IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde. \u201cWe are now working closely with the Chinese authorities in this regard,\u201d added Director of Communications Gerry Rice.<\/p>\n<p>They didn\u2019t say they would accept it, but then again, they surely wouldn\u2019t advertise it in advance.<\/p>\n<p>What\u2019s the connection to gold? If Chinese officials seek \u201creserve\u201d status for the currency, they\u2019ll want to announce their updated gold holdings beforehand.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Two reasons:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Currency strength. Demonstrating they hold ample gold reserves\u2014certainly more than the official number of 1,054 tonnes\u2014puts the currency on more solid footing. The IMF holds the world\u2019s third-largest gold reserve, so this issue matters.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>Transparency. A gold reserve announcement would help quell worries about the country\u2019s lack of data transparency, something that\u2019s been an ongoing concern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Regardless of China\u2019s motivation to announce its gold reserves, the IMF might require it anyway, as it\u2019s been over six years since the last update.<\/p>\n<p>The review process for admitting a new currency is held only every five years. I seriously doubt Chinese officials want to wait until 2020. Meetings will be held soon, with the results announced in October.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>What\u2019s Behind (Chinese) Door Number Three?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>A recent Bloomberg estimate put China\u2019s gold reserves at 3,510 tonnes, more than triple the old amount. If accurate, it would place China second only to the US, which says it has 8,133.5 tonnes. Other analysts speculate China holds around 2,100 tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>I think the actual number is higher than either estimate. My guess is at least 4,000 tonnes (Jim Rickards thinks it\u2019s 4,500 tonnes). If I\u2019m right, and if Chinese officials do announce a new reserve figure before October, it could light a fire under the gold price.<\/p>\n<p>A large increase is key, because even mainstream investors know that China has been buying a lot of gold. To really jolt the market, the new number must be a surprise\u2014which is exactly what I expect.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Many analysts overlook that Hong Kong imports are no longer a reliable way to measure China gold demand. China agreed over a year ago to import gold through numerous channels, such as banks, refiners, and even jewelry dealers. For this reason alone, I think China\u2019s gold holdings are higher than what they think.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, I could be wrong about a pending announcement. Buying Chinese government bonds still comes with a lot of restrictions, for example, which could keep the renminbi from being accepted by the IMF and eliminate the pressing need for China to declare its gold reserves. Or maybe the US\u2014with the highest share of votes in the IMF\u2014tries to block it from happening.<\/p>\n<p>But most of the rest of the world is already on board, as evidenced by the whopping 57 countries that signed on to become founding members of China\u2019s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Furthermore, nearly two-thirds of the world\u2019s central banks currently invest in the renminbi. And over 10,000 financial institutions already transact in it.<\/p>\n<p>On top of this, China recently agreed to adopt IMF standards for reporting balance of payment data. And they just launched their own facility to fix the yuan\u2019s value to gold. You wouldn\u2019t take these kinds of steps if you didn\u2019t want your currency included in the IMF basket.<\/p>\n<p>So, I think it\u2019s likely China will announce an updated figure on its gold reserves, and that it will be higher than the mainstream expects. If it makes headline news, it could ignite the gold price and give instant birth to a new bull market.<\/p>\n<p>If I\u2019m right, we obviously want to be positioned before it happens.<\/p>\n<p>And if I\u2019m wrong? It doesn\u2019t really matter, because all the core reasons for owning gold remain intact and poised to turn into catalysts.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Harry Dent Has Accepted My Bet!<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>This is just one reason <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/uq3bt-2\/CSW\" target=\"_blank\">I bet Harry Dent<\/a> about where the gold price is headed. He recently proclaimed that gold will fall to $700 in less than two years\u2014and I say hogwash. I bet him a gold Eagle that it won\u2019t, and he accepted, so our bet is live.<\/p>\n<p>We battle it out in a new special report, a 17-page debate where each of us argues our case. You can read our in-depth report free of charge\u2014<a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/uq3eu-2\/CSW\" target=\"_blank\">just enter your email address here<\/a>, and we\u2019ll send it to you right away.<\/p>\n<p>Which is more likely, inflation or deflation? Is gold destined to fall if deflation wins? Why has gold held strong in spite of a soaring dollar, and how will it perform if we face another crisis? Is a currency crisis really ahead? And how will production costs impact the price?<\/p>\n<p>Read the eight \u201cproof points\u201d each of us offers, along with the details of our wager and the date the winner will be announced. We both think the report will help each individual investor make up his or her own mind.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the battle of the year, with two ounces of gold on the line. I invite you to follow along in our \u201cboxing match\u201d and see who takes home the gold. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/go\/uq3hv-2\/CSW\" target=\"_blank\">Enter your email address and see who wins!<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-60460 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/littlelogo-e1422487013212.jpg\" alt=\"littlelogo-e1371521132896\" width=\"120\" height=\"129\" \/><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/CommonStockWarrants.com\" target=\"_blank\">Join us now for access to our Exclusive Warrant Database<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Resource Companies<br \/>\nBioTech<br \/>\nBlank Check Companies<br \/>\nFinancials, Banks, etc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Next Gold Bull Market Starts Before October By Jeff Clark I\u2019m going out on a limb: I think the next bull phase in the gold market gets underway before October. Why? China. But not due to runaway demand\u2026 At an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum last month, China\u2019s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, made [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[149,138,137,48,173],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45153"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45153"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45154,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45153\/revisions\/45154"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}