{"id":449545,"date":"2017-03-04T00:07:54","date_gmt":"2017-03-04T00:07:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=449545"},"modified":"2017-03-04T00:07:54","modified_gmt":"2017-03-04T00:07:54","slug":"the-feds-getting-ready-to-raise-into-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=449545","title":{"rendered":"The Fed\u2019s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"
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By James Rickards<\/a><\/span> <\/p>\n

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This post The Fed’s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness appeared first on Daily Reckoning.<\/p>\n

[Ed. Note: Jim Rickards’ latest New York Times bestseller, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis, is out now. Learn how to score your free copy here. This vital book transcends geopolitics and media rhetoric to prepare you for what areas in gold, markets and more you should be watching now.] <\/p>\n

I was surprised this week that the stock market reached new highs \u2014 despite the fact that expectations of a March rate hike by the Fed moved from 40% to 60% in three days. Today those expectations are about 75%.<\/p>\n

But I’ve been calling a March rate hike since late December. I was almost alone in that view. Wall Street analysts were paying lip service to the idea that the Fed might raise rates twice before the end of the year, but said the process might begin in June, not March. Market indicators were giving only a 25% chance of a rate hike within the past couple weeks.<\/p>\n

Is it because I’m smarter than all these other analysts?<\/p>\n

No, I certainly don’t claim to be smarter than any of them. It’s just that I use better analytical techniques based on complexity theory, behavioral psychology and other sciences that account for the ways actual markets behave. Meanwhile, most analysts are using outdated, static models that don’t apply to the real world.<\/p>\n

Speculation began after Janet Yellen’s testimony to House and Senate committees last month. She said a solid job market and an overall improving economy suggested the Fed would likely resume raising rates soon. But, Yellen did not say anything she hadn’t said in December.<\/p>\n

But suddenly this week everything heated up. Now the markets agree that a rate hike is coming, thanks to an orchestrated campaign of speeches and leaks from senior Fed officials. Several Fed members have been talking about the need to tighten, including Fed Governor and uber-dove Lael Brainard. When she starts sounding like a hawk, it’s time to pay attention.<\/p>\n

As I said, markets are now pricing in nearly a 75% chance of a March rate hike (my estimate is now 90%).<\/p>\n

But there’s a big difference between the dynamics behind my view of a rate increase and the market’s view. In effect, markets are saying, \u201cThe Fed is hiking rates, therefore, the economy must be strong.\u201d<\/p>\n

What I’m saying is \u201cThe Fed is tightening into weakness (because they don’t see it), so they will stall the economy and will flip to ease by May.\u201d<\/p>\n

My view is the economy is fundamentally weak, the Fed is tightening into weakness. By later this year, the Fed will have to flip-flop to ease (via forward guidance) for the ninth time since 2013. Stocks will fall, while bonds and precious metals will rally.<\/p>\n

Both theses start with a rate hike, but they rest on totally different assumptions and analyses.<\/p>\n

Under my scenario, the stock market is headed for a brick wall in April or May, when weak \u2026read more<\/a> <\/p>\n

Source:: Daily Reckoning feed<\/a><\/p>\n

The post <\/a>The Fed’s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness<\/a> appeared first on Junior Mining Analyst<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By James Rickards This post The Fed’s Getting Ready to Raise into Weakness appeared first on Daily Reckoning. [Ed. Note: Jim Rickards’ latest New York Times bestseller, The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis, is out now. Learn how to score your free copy here. This vital book […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449545"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=449545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=449545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=449545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=449545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}