{"id":415444,"date":"2017-01-02T16:17:58","date_gmt":"2017-01-02T16:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=415444"},"modified":"2017-01-02T16:17:58","modified_gmt":"2017-01-02T16:17:58","slug":"gold-getting-there-a-little-at-a-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=415444","title":{"rendered":"Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\"dollarcollapse\"
\nGold: Getting There A Little At A Time<\/h1>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

One of life\u2019s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you\u2019d like them to.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where the sayings \u201cBeing too early is the same as being wrong\u201d and \u201cThe market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent\u201d come from.<\/p>\n

A current case in point is gold. After the metal\u2019s decade-long bull market, a correction was inevitable. But when it finally came, rather than being short and cathartic it was long and grinding, stretching from 2012 through 2015 and causing many who got back in prematurely to eventually walk away in disgust.<\/p>\n

Then, after a nice pop in the first half of 2016, came the current long, slow-mo correction that\u2019s fraying the nerves of remaining gold-bugs.<\/p>\n

This latest correction may not be over, but \u2014 based on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) \u2013 the bottom is getting closer. For previous posts on this subject, see here <\/a>and here.<\/a><\/p>\n

The COT gives a snapshot of what the big players in the \u201cpaper gold\u201d market are up to. On the following chart the gray bars represent long positions held by speculators such as hedge funds, and the red bars denote net short positions held by \u201ccommercial\u201d players like fabricators and big banks. The speculators are usually wrong at major turning points, so when they\u2019re extremely long, gold usually falls and vice versa. The commercials tend to take the other side of speculators\u2019 bets, and so are generally right at the big turns.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of 2016, the speculators were hyper-pessimistic, as represented by a net long position of more or less zero. Gold then rose for six straight months. By July the speculators were overexcited \u2013 and overextended \u2014 setting the stage for the correction that\u2019s been grinding along ever since.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Now the two positions \u2013 speculator net longs and commercial net shorts \u2013 are once again converging. They\u2019ve yet to meet in the middle, but another couple of months on the current trajectory and they will. So the stage being is set for another positive stretch in gold\/silver prices, and by implication precious metals mining stocks.<\/p>\n

For a sense of what that means for the miners, the price chart of GDX, a major gold miner ETF, is instructive. After getting absolutely crushed during the last four months of the previously-mentioned multi-year bear market, it took off in January of 2016, rising by about 150% in six months. Since then it has given back about half its gains.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Assuming that 2015\u2019s plunge was the result of a ridiculously long bear market causing most investors to capitulate \u2014 something unlikely to happen in the current, milder correction \u2014 then another month or two of gold price weakness might send mining stocks like GDX lower, but probably not all the way back their January \u201916 bottom. So the entry point this time around is somewhere between today\u2019s price and the prior year\u2019s low. Let\u2019s call $17 a reasonable target.<\/p>\n

From there, the rest of the year \u2013 and maybe the rest of the decade \u2013 should be fun.<\/p>\n

Advertisement:<\/strong>
\nLooking for opportunities in the junior mining companies both shares and stock warrants? Join Me Now<\/strong><\/a>
\n\"blackcsw2-01\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time JANUARY 1, 2017 1 COMMENT   One of life\u2019s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you\u2019d like them to. That\u2019s where the sayings \u201cBeing too early is the same as being wrong\u201d and \u201cThe market can […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":415445,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[138,291,137,48,292],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415444"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=415444"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415444\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415474,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415444\/revisions\/415474"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/415445"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=415444"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=415444"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=415444"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}