{"id":1193400,"date":"2020-07-01T16:36:11","date_gmt":"2020-07-01T21:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/?p=109467"},"modified":"2020-07-01T16:36:11","modified_gmt":"2020-07-01T21:36:11","slug":"the-elections-a-toss-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1193400","title":{"rendered":"The Election\u2019s a Toss-up"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post The Election\u2019s a Toss-up<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Voters don\u2019t change their minds in October despite the occasional \u201cOctober surprise.\u201d Evidence shows that the debates don\u2019t change many minds either despite their high profile.<\/p>\n

Most voters make up their minds sometime between Labor Day and Oct. 1 based on overall impressions of the candidates without getting too bogged down in policy details.<\/p>\n

One of the primary rules of politics is \u201cYou can\u2019t beat something with nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n

Biden isn\u2019t much, but at least he\u2019s something. Voters perceive him as steady, experienced and somewhat of a \u201cregular guy.\u201d (Never mind that the reality is quite different and Biden is in a state of cognitive decline; it\u2019s the perception that counts, not the reality).<\/p>\n

Trump appears to be nothing. He has no program, no platform and no plan for the next four years.<\/p>\n

Voters don\u2019t blame him for COVID, but they will judge him by his response. Voters don\u2019t blame him for the depression, but they will judge him by the recovery.<\/p>\n

Right now, Trump is not responding well or showing leadership; he\u2019s just blaming others and complaining about the Democrats.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll learn a lot as Joe Biden picks a running mate and as the Democratic and Republican conventions approach in August. I won\u2019t rule out a shock such as Democrats working behind closed doors to dump Biden in favor of someone they perceive as more electable, such as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, or popular favorite Michelle Obama.<\/p>\n

But let\u2019s consider the two different scenarios — a Trump win and a Biden win.<\/p>\n

If Trump wins, the extent of Trump hatred and anti-Trump resistance will get worse, not better. The idea that the Trump-bashers will finally come to grips with reality and accept Trump as president (even one they don\u2019t like) is fantasy.<\/p>\n

The Trump-bashing has been a steady, never-ending 24\/7 spectacle for the past four years. There\u2019s no reason why the media, the Resistance and the Democrats in Congress can\u2019t keep it up for another four years.<\/p>\n

How about more impeachment hearings? (Don\u2019t worry, those plans are already underway.)<\/p>\n

The Antifa crowd will use a Trump victory as evidence that \u201cdemocracy doesn\u2019t work,\u201d which will validate their violent tactics at least in their own minds. They\u2019ll find plenty of supporters.<\/p>\n

Get ready for more riots, urban looting and burning and \u201cautonomous zones\u201d in major cities by early next year if not sooner.<\/p>\n

What about a Biden victory?<\/p>\n

A Biden victory brings its own set of fiascoes waiting to happen. Biden\u2019s cognitive capacity is clearly impaired at least to some extent. That can happen with age, sooner in some than others.<\/p>\n

Supporters and the media have tried to cover up the Biden mental issues by saying he is \u201cgaffe-prone\u201d and that he has had a lifetime struggle with stuttering. Both statements are true and have been for decades.<\/p>\n

But they don\u2019t explain what we\u2019re seeing now.<\/p>\n

Biden can\u2019t complete sentences, can\u2019t remember well-known quotes, can\u2019t construct a coherent argument and seems to drift off in the middle of answering a question. Those are all signs of a deteriorating mental capacity.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see how far this Biden-in-hiding can make it. The Democrats\u2019 convention has already been turned into a \u201cvirtual\u201d convention at which Biden can hide behind a teleprompter again.<\/p>\n

The fall debates will be a huge challenge for Biden, except they may be rigged as to length, number and format to minimize the stress on Biden\u2019s presence of mind.<\/p>\n

Politics aside, the real problem is not the campaign but the election.<\/p>\n

If Biden wins, his mental health issues won\u2019t go away. We will have a cognitively disabled president with his finger on the nuclear war-fighting trigger.<\/p>\n

Biden will pose a serious case for removal from office under the 25th Amendment. This was mooted for Trump, but it was based on animus, not health. In Biden\u2019s case, the health threat is real.<\/p>\n

This is why the vice presidential nomination is so important. When the vice presidential pick for Biden is announced (likely a far-left voice), investors should immediately think of that person as a de facto president now and actual president by 2022.<\/p>\n

So there are your choices. Trump brings more social unrest, and Biden brings mental health issues that will lead to his removal. As they say in sports betting, \u201cPick \u2019em.\u201d<\/p>\n

I said earlier that if the election was held today, Trump would lose. But because so much can happen over the next four months, my forecast for the outcome of the presidential election is still a toss-up.<\/p>\n

There are so many wild cards in the deck that will be played between now and Election Day. These wild cards include the strength of the economic recovery, the continuation of social unrest, a possible second wave of COVID-19, international hot spots, Trump\u2019s petulance and Biden\u2019s mental health.<\/p>\n

Now, a toss-up is bad news for Trump because he had a 74% probability of winning as recently as January.<\/p>\n

But that has gone by the boards as a result of the pandemic, the depression, the more recent riots and Trump\u2019s inability to understand that a different type of leadership is required when the crisis is not strictly political.<\/p>\n

The key takeaway is that the Trump-Biden contest is still basically 50-50.<\/p>\n

The polls could simply be underestimating Trump\u2019s support \u2014 a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the idea of the \u201chidden Trump voter.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, Trump\u2019s difficulties do not mean clear sailing for Biden. The biggest single variable in success or failure in electoral politics is not polling but turnout.<\/p>\n

Even a candidate behind in the polls will win if his supporters turn out in force. Likewise, a candidate ahead in the polls will lose if his supporters stay home.<\/p>\n

On that front, Biden will have great difficulty getting the \u201cBernie Bros\u201d and other left-wing elements of the Democratic electorate to turn out on Election Day. There\u2019s a noticeable lack of enthusiasm for Biden even among those who favor him in the polls.<\/p>\n

These two trends \u2014 Trump\u2019s lagging in the polls and Biden\u2019s lag in enthusiasm \u2014 will help define the presidential race over the next four months.<\/p>\n

In addition to the pandemic and the economy, which are the dominant factors, other campaign themes will include Trump blaming China for the pandemic and Biden attacking Trump\u2019s handling of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

Both candidates have a path to victory. For Biden, it\u2019s keeping a low profile and hoping to coast to victory on the anti-Trump feeling in the country. For Trump, it\u2019s getting past his petty feuds and laying out a vision for a second term.<\/p>\n

In politics, something beats nothing every time.<\/p>\n

The election will be close no matter what happens. That was always in the cards.<\/p>\n

For investors, it\u2019s important to know that the markets have not priced in a Biden victory. Biden has plans for higher taxes, more regulation and the Green New Deal.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s one more reason to lighten up on stocks and build cash reserves until we have more clarity on the election.<\/p>\n

Regards,<\/p>\n

Jim Rickards
\nfor The Daily Reckoning<\/i><\/p>\n

The post The Election\u2019s a Toss-up<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This post The Election’s a Toss-up<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jim Rickards shows you why the November election is a 50-50 coin toss right now…<\/p>\n

The post The Election’s a Toss-up<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2458,3724,366,2887,465,4413,4414,4415,463],"tags":[281],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1193400"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1193400"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1193400\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1193401,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1193400\/revisions\/1193401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1193400"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1193400"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1193400"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}