{"id":1162030,"date":"2020-01-27T12:57:13","date_gmt":"2020-01-27T18:57:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/?p=1012213"},"modified":"2020-01-27T12:57:13","modified_gmt":"2020-01-27T18:57:13","slug":"five-battery-raw-materials-themes-to-watch-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1162030","title":{"rendered":"Five battery raw materials themes to watch in 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Many in the battery raw materials market were likely happy to see the back of 2019, as it was a year characterized largely by falling prices and disappointing performances from both the EV and consumer electronics sectors, research firm Wood Mackenzie said in a research note Monday.<\/p>\n<div class='d-flex justify-content-center d-xs-block d-sm-block d-md-none'>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0'><script>googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0');});<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But interest around<br \/>\nelectrification shows no signs of slowing. The value chain of a new \u2018green\u2019<br \/>\nautomotive industry is being built, from mines and refineries through to cell<br \/>\nand pack manufacturing, Wood Mackenzie said. <\/p>\n<p>While it\u2019s still early days,<br \/>\ninvestments and deals made in the coming months will be critical to EV adoption<br \/>\npotential over the next decade.<\/p>\n<p>Five things to watch in 2020,<br \/>\naccording to Wood Mackenzie: <\/p>\n<h2><strong>1. Key EV markets to start growing again<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>In 2019, the world&#8217;s largest EV market contracted. According to the Chinese Automotive Manufacturers Association, NEV sales reached 1.206 million last year, around 4% lower than in 2018 and 20% lower than China\u2019s target for the year. In the US, the reduction was equally noteworthy at around 10% y-o-y. A sluggish global automotive sector and changing subsidies were certainly contributing factors nevertheless its clear that EVs are not yet ready to stand on their own feet.<\/p>\n<p>This year, several major automakers are launching \u2018mass-market\u2019 EVs on dedicated platforms, aimed at breaking down range and cost barriers. While Wood Mackenzie expects substantial quantities of these to trickle into the market in the second half of the year, annual passenger EV sales are likely to remain below 3 million. China\u2019s move to postpone the complete removal of NEV subsidies this year will support EV sales but also highlights just how sensitive the EV market still is to subsidies and incentives.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>2. Bigger and better batteries<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Cobalt prices soared in 2018 and the push towards high-nickel, low-cobalt batteries was accelerated. Last year, China commenced the first large-scale production of NMC 811 cells to be used in the automotive sector. This year, Wood Mackenzie expects only a handful of EV models outside of China to opt for the high energy density technology until the safety challenges are fully resolved. Within China, 2020 could be the year that LFP chemistries get a comeback as significant energy density improvements make LFP a much more viable option.<\/p>\n<p>Range anxiety continues to deter many consumers from purchasing EVs, with long ranges the preserve of high-end, luxury cars. Automakers are not unaware of this and nearly every new model boasts a bigger battery offering more miles per charge. Wood Mackenzie expects this trend to continue through the short term. As with most EVs, the first configurations to be sold are the highest specification models, typically using the largest battery pack. The average pack size over the next few years could be boosted as these specifications are front-loaded into the market.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>3. Lithium \u2013 another poor year<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Not even lithium producers are anticipating a rebound in the lithium market this year. Compared to many bullish demand expectations, 2019 was particularly weak, and excess in the market pushed prices downwards. Nearly every lithium reference price fell by at least 30% and reported sales prices followed the same trend. Wood Mackenzie forecasts price declines to extend over the next twelve months. A temporary lull in the market might be exactly what is needed for the LME to launch its new lithium contract this year. The contract is not going to be welcomed by all lithium players; however, Wood Mac believes it is a step forward to increasing the transparency in lithium pricing.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Oversupply was the common theme over 2019 and despite several closures and expansion cut-backs, Wood Mac analysts do not expect any tightness through the short term. The hard-rock producers have demonstrated how quickly spodumene concentrate can be brought online, but a greater level of discipline is now required for 2020. Some higher cost producers will feel the pressure this year as spodumene prices fail to recover. The economics of new projects now look less attractive and junior miners will increasingly have to emphasise their green credentials and strategic locations, something the battery and EV space is being heavily scrutinised on.<\/p>\n<p>As for the brines, 2019 supply<br \/>\ngrowth was higher than in 2018. The same will be required again this year for<br \/>\nbrines to keep their share of the market. Low prices might not weigh as heavily<br \/>\non the brine producers, typically sitting at the bottom of the cost curve and<br \/>\nhaving produced at these levels before. The ramp-up of South American brines<br \/>\nwill most likely be slower than guidance with water rights and technical<br \/>\nchallenges still key issues.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong>4. Cobalt \u2013 can we fill the gap?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Last year, DRC mined cobalt output contracted as the industry contended with both the slowdown in demand from EVs and electronics, but also \u2018indigestion\u2019 after the huge supply response in 2018 that had overstocked the supply chain. Weaker fundamentals naturally impacted price levels, with the LME cash price averaging $33,290\/t ($15.1\/lb) for the year. This weak pricing environment, and higher operating costs led industry-leader Glencore to place its Mutanda mine on care and maintenance from late last year. With Mutanda currently the largest cobalt producing mine in the world, the company has left quite a large gap to fill. Wood Mackenzie says it be done\u2013 but with risks. <\/p>\n<p>Mutanda\u2019s suspension will place more of a burden on Glencore\u2019s other DRC operation, Katanga. Katanga has been dealing with quality issues related to uranium content over the last year, yet interim solutions appear to be bearing fruit. Wood Mackenzie analysts estimate around 5 kt of cobalt in hydroxide may have been exported last year, versus production of 14kt. Glencore is currently targeting production of 27 kt of cobalt in hydroxide in 2020 from Katanga \u2013 with export levels dependent on the continued successful implementation of de-bottlenecking schemes.<\/p>\n<p>Aside from Glencore, the most<br \/>\nlikely source of \u2018replacement\u2019 tonnes is ERG. Its Metalkol RTR plant got off to<br \/>\na slow start last year \u2013 dealing with both quality issues and the poor market.<br \/>\nWe estimate exports of just around 3.4 kt in 2019, versus capacity of ~14 ktpa.<br \/>\nYet RTR will need to at least double shipments in 2020 if we are to avoid a<br \/>\nlarge deficit. Other major players such as CMOC\u2019s Tenke Fungurume look unlikely<br \/>\nto be able to materially increase output, while new supply from Chengtun and<br \/>\nthe recently started Deziwa operation will also be required to meet demand<br \/>\ngrowth. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Wood Mackenzie&#8217;s base case view is that mined output returns to 2018 levels. Analysts do have a notional deficit of some 2 kt forecast this year, Wood Mackenzie expects this is necessary to further draw down the stocks that have accumulated through the cobalt value chain. The firm believes price risk is on the upside this year should the \u2018major producers\u2019 fail to ramp up, and higher prices are required to incentive higher-cost supply into the market.<\/p>\n<h2><strong>5. Graphite \u2013 after the Balama drama<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>While key \u2018battery metals\u2019 like<br \/>\nlithium and cobalt have suffered from the slowdown in EV sales in the<br \/>\nall-important Chinese market, for the likes of graphite \u2013 a 1 million tonne<br \/>\nplus industry primarily driven by the steel sector \u2013 the fundamentals are more<br \/>\ncomplex. In the natural flake market, last year saw a steady ramp up in exports<br \/>\nfrom Syrah Resources\u2019 Balama mine in Mozambique. This gradually overwhelmed the<br \/>\npreviously insulated Chinese flake market and eroded price levels as the year<br \/>\nprogressed. The extent of the oversupply eventually saw Syrah trim its own<br \/>\noutput in the final quarter, and its guidance for 2020 for 120-150 kt.<\/p>\n<p>As 2020 gets underway, there are many questions associated with the flake market. To start, does the natural graphite industry even need a mine as large as Balama right now \u2013 which at full capacity (350 ktpa) would be larger than current global consumption of natural graphite in batteries? And is there a future for the other flake graphite projects looking to move into production in this environment \u2013 particularly given a seeming resurgence in interest in synthetic graphite?<\/p>\n<p>Medium-term demand prospects for graphite remain strong, Wood Mackenzie says, with disruptive technologies like silicon or even lithium metal-based anodes unlikely to dampen growth anytime soon. However, with this fledgling sector already overwhelmed with supply, 2020 looks likely to be another challenging year. With margins being squeezed, and an increasing focus on sustainability encouraging ex-China sourcing, many graphite miners, including Syrah, will continue to move down the value chain towards high-purity spherical graphite.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wood Mackenzie says investments and deals made in the coming months will be critical to EV adoption potential over the next decade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1016,624,369],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162030"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/47"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1162030"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1162035,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1162030\/revisions\/1162035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1162030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1162030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1162030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}