{"id":1150409,"date":"2019-11-18T16:06:39","date_gmt":"2019-11-18T22:06:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/?p=108330"},"modified":"2019-11-18T16:06:39","modified_gmt":"2019-11-18T22:06:39","slug":"about-what-i-said-in-nyc-last-thursday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1150409","title":{"rendered":"About What I Said in NYC Last Thursday\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This post <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/about-what-i-said-in-nyc-last-thursday\/\">About What I Said in NYC Last Thursday\u2026<\/a> appeared first on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/\">Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: left\" src=\"https:\/\/duip7hn7nchpo.cloudfront.net\/editor-circle-nilus-mattive.jpg\" alt=\"Nilus Mattive\" align=\"left\" \/>Dear <em>Rich Lifer<\/em>,<\/p>\n<p><!--text--><\/p>\n<p>As I mentioned in one of my issues last week, I attended the first annual Paradigm Press summit in New York City and gave a talk to both live attendees and thousands of additional investors with streaming access to the event.<\/p>\n<p>The entire event was terrific with eye-opening insights from many additional presenters \u2013 Jim Rickards, Nomi Prins, Tim Sykes, Ray Kurzweil, George Gilder, Grant Cardone, Robert and Kim Kioyasaki\u2026 I mean the list goes on and on.<\/p>\n<p>But for my part, I talked about two very important concepts. One of them was the secretive insurance-related investment I alluded to last week.<\/p>\n<p>The other was the idea of trading \u201cnew\u201d stocks for \u201cold\u201d ones at this point in the market cycle.<\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, my big-picture point is that investors are currently fixated with big-hype names while simultaneously ignoring the older (more profitable) versions of the very same companies.<\/p>\n<p>One example I highlighted?<\/p>\n<p>Beyond Meat (BYND).<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead\"><strong>To Infinity and BYND? <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve heard of this \u201cfake meat\u201d company, which makes plant-based alternatives to everything from ground beef to sausage.<\/p>\n<p>Now, look, there\u2019s no doubt that many people are adopting healthier lifestyles.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no doubt that the company\u2019s products are great for what they are (though I would argue they aren\u2019t actually healthy at all).<\/p>\n<p>And there\u2019s no doubt that Beyond Meat has quickly gained national attention and shelf space everywhere from groceries to fast food restaurants.<\/p>\n<p>But as Brian Rose and I told a bunch of paying subscribers back in June, the action in Beyond Meat\u2019s stock wasn\u2019t making any sense at all.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead\"><strong>Out with the New in with the Old<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>After an oversubscribed pre-IPO, the offering price of the shares ended up getting raised to $25.<\/p>\n<p>Then, when they finally hit the market in May, the first trade took place at $46.<\/p>\n<p>At the end of trading that day, the shares closed all the way up at $65.75.<\/p>\n<p>And by the time our alert was going out, they had soared past $160.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s the chart from the actual issue:<\/p>\n<p class=\"centered\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"centered\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/paradigmpress-uploads\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/rlr_chart1_111819.png\" alt=\"RLR\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Obviously, that massive rally was great news for anyone who got in early.<\/p>\n<p>But as we said, it didn\u2019t look sustainable or justified at all.<\/p>\n<p>So we told readers to get out if they were in and labeled the stock way overvalued.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, we pointed to Tyson Foods (TSN) as a much better alternative for several reasons, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consistent profitability.<\/li>\n<li>Regular dividend payments.<\/li>\n<li>A strong business in traditional meat items, which aren\u2019t going away.<\/li>\n<li>Plus, an equally promising future in the same alternative meat categories that Beyond was involved in.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In fact, on that latter point: We mentioned that Tyson had actually been an early investor in Beyond and also owned many additional stakes in other \u201cfake meat\u201d startup companies.<\/p>\n<p>For a few weeks, we looked pretty dumb as Beyond Meat kept climbing higher \u2026 all the way up to the $230 a share level.<\/p>\n<p>Then, things started unravelling.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a chart showing the bigger picture through the end of trading last week\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"centered\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"centered\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/paradigmpress-uploads\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/rlr_chart2_111819.png\" alt=\"RLR\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As you can see, Beyond absolutely cratered after that final blow-off top.<\/p>\n<p>All told, it\u2019s about half of what it was when we issued our warning back in June and off about 65% from it\u2019s all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone who got out in time banked an awful lot of profits before it was too late. And anyone who bought put options or shorted the stock made an absolute killing.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead\"><strong>What\u2019s the Lesson? <\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>But I tell you this story, just as I told it in NYC, for a very important reason\u2026<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s an extreme example \u2013 both in its magnitude and its accelerated timeline \u2013 of what I see in many corners of the markets right now.<\/p>\n<p>There is a lot of hype being tossed around companies with hot names, charismatic CEOs, cool business ideas, and other buzzy type stuff.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, some of these same companies have no real long-term competitive advantages \u2026 they have very shaky finances \u2026 most often, they have zero earnings and are paying zero income to their shareholders.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, old \u201cboring\u201d names are being written off entirely. Companies that are very profitable. That pay big dividends. That, in many cases, are directly competing with the red-hot stocks that are wildly overvalued.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t have room here to go into all of the specific examples that I shared with my live audience.<\/p>\n<p>Suffice it to say that I\u2019ve seen this whole movie before, back when I was working on Wall Street in the late 1990s and early 2000s.<\/p>\n<p>I know exactly what happens when the tide goes out and the bottoms of the ships are exposed.<\/p>\n<p>I also know how quickly that change can happen&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>So my recommendation at this point is starting to take a closer look at what companies you\u2019re currently investing in, how strong their underlying financials and businesses are, and how exposed they might be to any economic hiccup or other unforeseen speedbump.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, I also suggest looking to some of the widely-ignored, deeply undervalued bargains lurking out there in plain view.<\/p>\n<p><!--signoff --><\/p>\n<p>To a richer life,<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"align-none\" src=\"https:\/\/duip7hn7nchpo.cloudfront.net\/signature-nilus-mattive.png\" alt=\"Nilus Mattive\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nilus Mattive<\/p>\n<p>The post <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/about-what-i-said-in-nyc-last-thursday\/\">About What I Said in NYC Last Thursday\u2026<\/a> appeared first on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/\">Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This post <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/about-what-i-said-in-nyc-last-thursday\/\">About What I Said in NYC Last Thursday&hellip;<\/a> appeared first on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/\">Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With all the hype around new and upcoming stocks, sometimes it pays to look at some of the old guard&hellip; <\/p>\n<p>The post <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/about-what-i-said-in-nyc-last-thursday\/\">About What I Said in NYC Last Thursday&hellip;<\/a> appeared first on <a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/\">Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":55,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[3590,3591,366,3592,3593,465,3594,3217,722,3595,3596,3597,3598,923,3599,3600,3601],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1150409"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/55"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1150409"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1150409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1150410,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1150409\/revisions\/1150410"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1150409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1150409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1150409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}