{"id":1141714,"date":"2019-10-02T15:32:17","date_gmt":"2019-10-02T20:32:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/?p=1003390"},"modified":"2019-10-02T15:32:17","modified_gmt":"2019-10-02T20:32:17","slug":"top-producer-says-lithium-prices-to-keep-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1141714","title":{"rendered":"Top producer says lithium prices to keep falling"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Despite the lofty expectations for demand from electric vehicles where lithium-ion batteries dominate, prices for the raw material are now languishing at two-year lows.<\/p>\n<div class='d-flex justify-content-center'>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0'><script>googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0');});<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Free-on board prices of lithium carbonate from South American brine ponds are down 31% over the past year to average $10,375 a tonne in September, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benchmarkminerals.com\/battery-supply-chain-blog\/\"  rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data (opens in a new tab)\">Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data<\/a>. At the same time ex-works prices in China have collapsed from a peak of $24,750 in March last year to below South America export prices.<\/p>\n<p>Producers in Australia now get $325 less for spodumene concentrate (6% lithium used as feedstock for lithium hydroxide) cargoes than in July last year, when prices were above $900 a tonne, according to Benchmark\u2019s September assessment. Lithium hydroxide prices followed carbonate down, but now trade at a premium to the latter at $13,000 FOB North America.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/aus-govt-industry-ev-sales.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1003473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/aus-govt-industry-ev-sales.jpg 529w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/aus-govt-industry-ev-sales-300x204.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 529px) 100vw, 529px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Thanks to a slew of new hard-rock lithium mines and expansions at existing operations in Western Australia, the country is now the number one producer. New supply coming on stream over the next couple of years \u2013 thanks in large part from the expansion of Greenbushes, the world\u2019s largest lithium mine \u2013 is also dominated by Australia.<\/p>\n<p>The <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"latest quarterly report, (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.industry.gov.au\/data-and-publications\/resources-and-energy-quarterly-september-2019\" >latest quarterly report and forecast<\/a>  from Australia\u2019s Department of Industry&nbsp;provides cold comfort for lithium bulls:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p>&#8220;Spot prices have fallen more sharply than contract prices, with the latter responding more slowly to growing evidence of oversupply \u2014 such as stock gains. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The office of Australia&#8217;s chief economist expects the hydroxide surplus to gradually decline and prices to start recovering in 2021, but spodumene  &#8220;is expected to face a longer period of oversupply, with prices forecast to remain soft through the whole outlook period.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Supply driven <\/h2>\n<p>The current weakness is almost entirely supply driven. Changes to EV subsidies in China has made a dent in sales growth this year, but longer term the government forecaster is decidedly bullish about vehicle electrification with projected annual sales of more than 40 million EVs by 2028. <\/p>\n<p>Overall Chinese production of lithium ion batteries reached 1.34 billion units in August<strong>,<\/strong>&nbsp;up 7.8% compared to the same month in 2018. Last year output of batteries grew by just shy of 13%.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oversupply of lithium hydroxide to start easing next year, but spodumene miners won&#8217;t catch a break soon says Australia&#8217;s chief economist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1016,369],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141714"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1141714"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141714\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1141739,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1141714\/revisions\/1141739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1141714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1141714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1141714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}