{"id":1136930,"date":"2019-09-06T11:53:08","date_gmt":"2019-09-06T16:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/?p=1001316"},"modified":"2019-09-06T11:53:08","modified_gmt":"2019-09-06T16:53:08","slug":"cobalt-lithium-oversupply-to-slow-down-evs-sales-by-25-bmo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1136930","title":{"rendered":"Cobalt, lithium oversupply to slow down EVs sales by 25% \u2014 BMO"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A glut of minerals used to power electric<br \/>\nvehicles (EVs), particularly cobalt and lithium, is expected to slow down the<br \/>\nadoption of such cars by between 15% to 25% through 2021, even as larger<br \/>\nbatteries are being developed, experts at BMO Capital Markets say.<\/p>\n<div class='d-flex justify-content-center'>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0'><script>googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0');});<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The bank has also lowered its anticipated<br \/>\nglobal light vehicle penetration to reflect a 7% drop in electric cars sales<br \/>\nthis year to end of July.<\/p>\n<p>BMO now estimates that total global light EVs sales will drop by 8 million this year, totalling 90 million. By 2025, they  will only reach 103 million, instead of the 110 million units previously forecast.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote alignright\">\n<blockquote>\n<p>Global light EVs sales will drop by 8 million this year to 90 million and will reach only 103 million in 2025. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n<p>\u201cWe now see cobalt oversupplied until 2023 (assuming Glencore\u2019s Katanga operation ramps up). For nickel, slower EV penetration will allow more time for the necessary growth in new supply projects, particularly from high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations,\u201d analyst Colin Hamilton said in a note to investors Friday.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst also sees Chinese battery producers as favoring nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries once more, particularly as the government&#8217;s decision to reduce state subsidies for electric cars and other vehicles with alternative driving systems using nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) technologies has made them relatively more competitive.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO_Global-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Expectations-Reduced.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1001320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO_Global-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Expectations-Reduced.jpg 816w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO_Global-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Expectations-Reduced-300x212.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO_Global-Light-Vehicle-Sales-Expectations-Reduced-768x542.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 816px) 100vw, 816px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u201cThat said, NMC cathode chemistry<br \/>\nwill still take the majority of market share in 2025,with NMC532\/NMC622 being<br \/>\nthe dominant chemistries,\u201d Hamilton notes.<\/p>\n<p>BMO believes global cobalt consumption<br \/>\nby the EV sector will hit 86,000 tonnes in 2015, down from the 97,000 tonnes previously<br \/>\nanticipated.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven with the cut to Glencore\u2019s Mutanda operation, we see a relatively substantial market surplus over 2020-21 (\u2026) The best hope for cobalt may be a turnaround in global smartphone demand (where LCO cathodes still dominate), which has been a drag over the past two years,\u201d BMO says.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO-Global-EV-Sales-Impacted-by-Slowing-Overall-Auto-Market.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1001323\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO-Global-EV-Sales-Impacted-by-Slowing-Overall-Auto-Market.jpg 852w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO-Global-EV-Sales-Impacted-by-Slowing-Overall-Auto-Market-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/BMO-Global-EV-Sales-Impacted-by-Slowing-Overall-Auto-Market-768x503.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 852px) 100vw, 852px\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>For nickel, electric vehicles<br \/>\nrepresent a much smaller proportion of overall market demand.&nbsp;However, BMO\u2019s<br \/>\nforecast 2025 consumption in this area has now dropped by over 50,000 tonnes to<br \/>\n347,000 tonnes in 2025, with EVs consume 11% of the total supply, down from 13%<br \/>\npreviously. <\/p>\n<p>The bank doesn\u2019t expect to say significant impact on prices,<br \/>\nas Indonesia \u2014 &nbsp;the world\u2019s top nickel miner \u2014 said this week it would<br \/>\nstop nickel ore exports from Jan. 1, 2020, two years earlier than initially<br \/>\nindicated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bank expects total global EVs sales tol drop by 8 million this year, totalling 103 million by 2025, instead of the 110 million units previously forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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