{"id":1124689,"date":"2019-07-03T22:49:05","date_gmt":"2019-07-03T22:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/?p=995509"},"modified":"2019-07-03T22:49:05","modified_gmt":"2019-07-03T22:49:05","slug":"australia-govts-lithium-price-outlook-is-bleak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1124689","title":{"rendered":"Australia govt\u2019s lithium price outlook is bleak"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Despite the lofty expectations for demand from electric vehicles where lithium-ion batteries dominate, prices for the raw material have been in relentless decline for the last 18 months.<\/p>\n<div class='d-flex justify-content-center'>\n<div id='div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0'><script>googletag.cmd.push(function() {googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1561499308230-0');});<\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Free-on board prices of lithium carbonate from South American brine ponds are down 27% over the past year to average $11,500 a tonne in June  according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence data. Ex-works prices in China have collapsed from a peak of $24,750 in March last year to below South America export prices.  <\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-spodumene-.jpg\" alt=\"Australia govt's lithium price outlook is bleak\" class=\"wp-image-995678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-spodumene-.jpg 505w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-spodumene--300x222.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 505px) 100vw, 505px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Producers in Australia now get $300 less for spodumene concentrate (6% lithium used as feedstock for lithium hydroxide ) cargoes than in July last year when prices were above $900 a tonne according to Benchmark&#8217;s June assessment. Lithium hydroxide prices followed carbonate down, but now trade at a premium to the latter at over $13,000 inside China. <\/p>\n<p>Thanks to a slew of new hard-rock lithium mines and expansions at existing operations in Western Australia, the country is now the number one producer of the white metal. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-pullquote\">\n<blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/store.miningintelligence.com\/posters\/global-battery-minerals-map\/\"  rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"DOWNLOAD FREE BATTERY METALS MAP (opens in a new tab)\">DOWNLOAD FREE BATTERY METALS MAP<\/a><\/p>\n<p><cite>Map of major producing mines and mine development projects of minerals used in Lithium Ion Batteries. Commodities include Lithium, Graphite and Cobalt. Map includes locations of 240+ producing mines, 45 development projects, 110+ projects in economic assessment, and 40 suspended mines.<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n<p>New supply coming on stream over the next couple of years \u2013 thanks in large part from the expansion of Greenbushes, the world&#8217;s largest lithium mine  \u2013 is also dominated by Australia. <\/p>\n<p>In a <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"new report (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/publications.industry.gov.au\/publications\/resourcesandenergyquarterlyjune2019\/index.html\" >new report<\/a> Australia&#8217;s Department of Industry,  Innovation and Science predicts continued decline in the price of lithium hydroxide as spodumene pre-cursor material floods supply chains in China and Europe.   <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p>Lithium hydroxide prices are projected to fall by around 15 per cent in 2019, as oversupply persists and inventories grow. Over the outlook period, the supply surplus is projected to gradually close, with the price expected to start turning around after 2020.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p>Spodumene ore is expected to face a longer period of oversupply, with prices remaining soft through 2021. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\">\n<p>The fact that supply is being triangulated against future demand makes it somewhat unlikely that oversupply will correct in the very near future. However, demand growth is likely to outstrip supply by around 2023.\u00a0 <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-increase-in-stockpiles-.jpg\" alt=\"Australia govt's lithium price outlook is bleak\" class=\"wp-image-995679\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-increase-in-stockpiles-.jpg 516w, https:\/\/www.mining.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/australia-forecasts-dop-in-lithium-price-increase-in-stockpiles--300x223.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 516px) 100vw, 516px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The build-up of stocks worldwide in anticipation of the dozens of so-called gigafactories (named after the Tesla facility in Nevada) being built around the world must be particularly worrying for lithium price bulls. <\/p>\n<p>The office of Australia&#8217;s chief economist predicts a 26+% increase in stockpiles worldwide representing 2-and-a-half years of consumption.<\/p>\n<p>According to the study the ramp-up in electric vehicle and battery facilities is projected to lift lithium demand from 234,000 tonnes in 2018 to more than 349,000 tonnes by 2021.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>At the moment less than half the lithium produced around the world ends up in rechargeable batteries.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"\/>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-wordpress wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-mining-com\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"a3tRqM9nzr\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/elon-musk-says-tesla-might-get-into-mining\/\">Elon Musk says Tesla \u201cmight get into mining\u201d<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe title=\"&#8220;Elon Musk says Tesla \u201cmight get into mining\u201d&#8221; &#8212; MINING.COM\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mining.com\/elon-musk-says-tesla-might-get-into-mining\/embed\/#?secret=a3tRqM9nzr\" data-secret=\"a3tRqM9nzr\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Top exporter Australia predicts a 26% rise in lithium stockpiles in 2019 &ndash; that&#8217;s 2.5 years of consumption.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[1016,369],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1124689"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1124689"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1124689\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1124876,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1124689\/revisions\/1124876"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1124689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1124689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1124689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}