{"id":1104216,"date":"2019-03-08T22:14:21","date_gmt":"2019-03-08T22:14:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dailyreckoning.com\/?p=106897"},"modified":"2019-03-08T22:14:21","modified_gmt":"2019-03-08T22:14:21","slug":"the-worst-jobs-report-since-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1104216","title":{"rendered":"The Worst Jobs Report Since 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post The Worst Jobs Report Since 2017<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The big story today is the February jobs report.<\/p>\n

In the parlance of the trade, it was a \u201cmiss.\u201d And not by a jot, not by a tittle, not by a whisker.<\/p>\n

Economists as a whole divined the economy would add 175,000 jobs last month.<\/p>\n

What was the actual number?<\/p>\n

A mere 20,000 \u2014 miles and miles beneath expectations \u2014 and the worst monthly showing since September 2017.<\/p>\n

Consider: The United States economy has averaged over 200,000 new jobs 12 months running.<\/p>\n

Among the report\u2019s \u201chighlights\u201d:<\/p>\n

Manufacturing jobs fell 8,000 below estimate. Retail jobs disappointed to the sour tune of 6,100. Construction jobs fell a full 31,000 short of the glory.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s report sent stocks into red numbers for the fifth straight day \u2014 despite a late uprising.<\/p>\n

The Dow Jones closed the day down 23 points. The S&P lost 6, the Nasdaq 13.<\/p>\n

But markets should take heart\u2026<\/p>\n

Bad News Is Good News for Stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Today\u2019s unemployment report means Jerome Powell will not be raising interest rates soon.<\/p>\n

In fact, we suspect Mr. Powell is inwardly pleased today.<\/p>\n

The report gives him every excuse to hold \u2014 or even cut rates.<\/p>\n

And the president will stop battering him about interest rates.<\/p>\n

Affirms Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate.com:<\/p>\n

“All of this shows the Federal Reserve can continue to wait before raising interest rates, if at all this year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Today fed funds futures are in fact giving a 25% chance of a rate cut by next January \u2014 up 5% from yesterday.<\/p>\n

What precisely does this morning\u2019s grim report portend for the American economy?<\/p>\n

\u201cThe sharp slowdown in payroll employment growth in February provides further evidence that economic growth has slowed in the first quarter,\u201d says Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a disappointing report,\u201d moans Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist of Northern Trust, adding:<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think there\u2019s any way to sugarcoat it.\u201d<\/p>\n

But that does not mean the rah-rah men did not try\u2026<\/p>\n

Mother Nature and Uncle Sam Are to Blame<\/strong><\/h2>\n

It was the month\u2019s lousy weather, they bellow. Of course construction jobs are down. And do not forget about the government shutdown.<\/p>\n

On hand with his sack of sugar was professional optimist Larry Kudlow, the president\u2019s economic point man.<\/p>\n

\u201cFluky,\u201d is how he describes this morning\u2019s report:<\/p>\n

\n

I think you have timing issues with respect to the government shutdown, winter seasonal issues. I think it\u2019s very fluky. I wouldn\u2019t pay any attention to it to be honest with you.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u201cI think the federal shutdown and the weather are playing games with the numbers,\u201d adds Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.<\/p>\n

Just so.<\/p>\n

We are in no position to question a director of the United States National Economic Council… or a chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.<\/p>\n

However…<\/p>\n

The professional men had forecast 175,000 jobs.<\/p>\n

Were they not aware of the lousy weather… the government shutdown… and all the temporary hobgoblins tormenting February\u2019s employment market?<\/p>\n

What is the point of having experts?<\/p>\n

Mr. Jonathan Doe or Mrs. Jane Doe could scarcely botch things so badly.<\/p>\n

And if the number did come ringing in at 175,000 \u2014 depend on it \u2014 the same experts would seize upon it as proof of a raging economy.<\/p>\n

We wonder when they will be exhausted of excuses.<\/p>\n

Nearly 10 years running, disappointing economic data have resulted from the weather. Or this temporary malady. Or that brief detour.<\/p>\n

It has been a permanent chasing of rainbows.<\/p>\n

Yet there has been no pot of gold at rainbow\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

Perhaps today\u2019s woeful unemployment says what it means and means what it says\u2026<\/p>\n

The \u201cNew Normal\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The economy is staggering to a crawl.<\/p>\n

GDP growth peaked at 4.2% in last year\u2019s second quarter.<\/p>\n

The quarters following turned in 3.4%… and 2.6%.<\/p>\n

After today\u2019s botchwork you must dose any expert prognostication with heaping amounts of table salt.<\/p>\n

But Goldman now projects 0.9% Q1 GDP growth.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s New York garrison has it at 0.88%.<\/p>\n

Its Atlanta branch now estimates Q1 growth of merely 0.5%.<\/p>\n

Meantime, the New York Fed\u2019s No. 1 man says he expects 2019 GDP to print just 2%.<\/p>\n

But the same John Williams is neither concerned\u2026 nor surprised.<\/p>\n

Diminished growth is merely the \u201cnew normal\u201d:<\/p>\n

\n

I know this talk of slowing growth is causing uncertainty, some hand-wringing and even fear of recession. But slower growth shouldn\u2019t necessarily come as a surprise. Instead, it\u2019s the \u201cnew normal\u201d we should expect.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

But with the highest respect to Mr. Williams\u2026 why shouldn\u2019t we expect more?<\/p>\n

Plenty of Bang, Not Much Buck<\/strong><\/p>\n

The United States government has borrowed in excess of $10 trillion over the prior decade.<\/p>\n

$10 trillion is plenty handsome.<\/p>\n

Yet that $10 trillion of debt yielded only $3 trillion of real GDP.<\/p>\n

To hone in closer, the nation\u2019s debt increases roughly $100 billion per month.<\/p>\n

But GDP only increases some $40 billion per month.<\/p>\n

We are getting plenty of buck, that is. But not much bang.<\/p>\n

The nation\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio already exceeds 100% \u2014 its highest since WWII.<\/p>\n

But where are the Nazis? Where are the Japanese?<\/p>\n

What Manhattan Project is the United States government financing?<\/p>\n

The standard formula says deficits should decline during economic expansions. Come the inevitable recession, the government then has a full war chest to throw at it.<\/p>\n

But a decade into the current expansion\u2026 the Treasury is depleted.<\/p>\n

And the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 115% within three years.<\/p>\n

Meantime, the Federal Reserve expects long-term GDP growth of 1.9%.<\/p>\n

It is a grim calculus.<\/p>\n

So Far, So Good<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Yet the president of the New York branch of the Federal Reserve is unconcerned.<\/p>\n

We are reminded of the blind fellow who falls off the 100-story building.<\/p>\n

\u201cSo far, so good,\u201d he assures himself 80 floors down.<\/p>\n

We suspect the United States is 80 floors down. Or perhaps 73. Or 68.<\/p>\n

Either way, the pavement is coming up fast…<\/p>\n

Regards,<\/p>\n

Brian Maher
\nManaging editor, The Daily Reckoning<\/em><\/p>\n

The post The Worst Jobs Report Since 2017<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This post The Worst Jobs Report Since 2017<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The February jobs report massively disappoints expectations… If it’s not the weather to blame, it’s something else… The “new normal”…<\/p>\n

The post The Worst Jobs Report Since 2017<\/a> appeared first on Daily Reckoning<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[484,366,928,463,1624],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104216"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1104216"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104216\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1104217,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1104216\/revisions\/1104217"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1104216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1104216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1104216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}