{"id":1097767,"date":"2019-02-03T22:03:27","date_gmt":"2019-02-03T22:03:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thedailygold.com\/?p=24007"},"modified":"2019-02-03T22:03:27","modified_gmt":"2019-02-03T22:03:27","slug":"time-for-a-breakout-in-gold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=1097767","title":{"rendered":"Time for a Breakout in Gold?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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First we need to define what a breakout actually is. Its when the price breaks a pattern or a range and a new trend is therefore established. <\/span><\/p>\n

Today, people are all too quick to refer to almost every move higher as a breakout. Just google \u201cGold Breakout\u201d and you\u2019ll see what I mean. <\/span><\/p>\n

Sure, closing above $1300 was a breakout for Gold. But that\u2019s hardly significant. If and when Gold surpasses the wall (resistance at $1350-$1375), it will mark a real breakout.<\/span><\/p>\n

The good news is Gold is currently in a much better position both fundamentally and technically than it was in 2016, 2017 and 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

Let me start with the technicals.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gold in real terms is stronger than at any other time in the past few years.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the chart below we plot Gold against foreign currencies (FC), stocks, bonds and commodities. The four vertical lines highlight the points when Gold was testing its wall of resistance. <\/span><\/p>\n

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During 2017 through 2018, Gold was driven mostly by a weak dollar. In relative terms, Gold was weak against FC and stocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

Relative to summer 2016, Gold is currently stronger against bonds and commodities and is inches away from testing its 2016 high against FC. <\/span><\/p>\n

The last thing holding Gold back is the stock market. Note that the Gold to S&P 500 ratio has not made a higher high in recent days. While its holding above moving average support it desperately needs to make a higher high to confirm a new Gold bull market is underway.<\/span><\/p>\n

The performance of Gold relative to the stock market is connected to the fundamentals for Gold.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the stock rally and economic data hold firm, the Fed could reintroduce rate hikes into the equation. That\u2019s not a bullish scenario for Gold. (It\u2019s important to keep this in mind). <\/span><\/p>\n

On the other hand, if the market is right, the Fed is done hiking rates and will make its first rate cut in 2020. <\/span><\/p>\n

That scenario eventually implies equity market weakness, a push higher in the Gold to stock market ratio and a breakout in Gold.<\/span><\/p>\n

So who should we trust: the market or the Fed, who thinks they could hike this year?<\/span><\/p>\n

The gold stocks are providing additional evidence. They exploded above their 400-day moving averages and have shown strong breadth over the past two weeks.<\/span>At present, the weight of the evidence is favoring bullish outcomes for precious metals. Ultimately, if Gold and gold stocks extend their outperformance against the stock market then look out for a breakout and a full blown bull market. <\/span>To prepare yourself for some epic buying opportunities in junior gold and silver stocks, consider learning more about our premium service.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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    First we need to define what a breakout actually is. Its when the price breaks a pattern or a range and a new trend is therefore established. Today, people are all too quick to refer to almost every move higher as a breakout. Just google “Gold Breakout” and you’ll see what I mean. … Continue reading “Time for a Breakout in Gold?”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[583,581],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1097767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorials","category-featured"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1097767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1097767"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1097767\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1097769,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1097767\/revisions\/1097769"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1097767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1097767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1097767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}