{"id":106850,"date":"2015-08-20T13:27:49","date_gmt":"2015-08-20T13:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=106850"},"modified":"2015-08-20T13:27:49","modified_gmt":"2015-08-20T13:27:49","slug":"silver-cycle-low-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/?p=106850","title":{"rendered":"Silver Cycle Low \u2013 Now"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"entry-header\">\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><a href=\"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/deviant.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-11474 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/deviant.jpeg\" alt=\"deviant\" width=\"160\" height=\"202\" data-id=\"11474\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\">\n<p>Posted on <a title=\"1:01 am\" href=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/7276\/silver-cycle-low-now\/\" rel=\"bookmark\"><time class=\"entry-date\" datetime=\"2015-08-18T01:01:05+00:00\">August 18, 2015<\/time><\/a><span class=\"byline\"> by <span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" title=\"View all posts by Gary Christenson\" href=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/author\/redinnovativest\/\" rel=\"author\">Gary Christenson<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>The price of silver has been crushed during the last four years.\u00a0 Prices are ready to reverse.\u00a0 We will know soon enough after the High-Frequency-Traders have their way with prices for paper silver and gold on the CME.\u00a0 But consider:<\/p>\n<p>Casey Research:\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.caseyresearch.com\/articles\/top-7-reasons-im-buying-silver-now\">Top 7 Reasons I\u2019m Buying Silver Now<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Gary Savage has declared that \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/www.investing.com\/analysis\/gold-is-now-a-buy-260954\">Gold is Now a Buy<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Adam Hamilton\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/3419116-golds-artificial-lows-from-extreme-shorting-attack-wont-last\">Gold\u2019s Artificial Lows<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Richard Russell:\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/richard-russell-buy-physical-silver-ahead-of-the-coming-chaos\/\">Buy Physical Silver Ahead of the Coming Chaos<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/kingworldnews.com\/gold-sentiment-2nd-most-negative-level-in-the-past-25-years-as-commercial-hedgers-take-on-gold-shorts\/\">Gold Sentiment Reaches 2<sup>nd<\/sup> Most Negative Level in 25 Years<\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The US Dollar peaked in March and has been slipping lower since then.<\/li>\n<li>Gold peaked four years ago. Silver peaked four years and three months ago.\u00a0 Both are due for a rebound.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Is there anything specific regarding silver, or is it just \u201chope and change?\u201d\u00a0 Yes!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Daily<\/strong> charts (not shown):\u00a0 Silver hit its low about 2 weeks ago and has weakly rallied since then.\u00a0 Most oscillators show that silver prices are deeply oversold and that momentum has turned upward.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Weekly<\/strong> charts (not shown):\u00a0 Silver prices have closed higher for the last two weeks, and like the daily charts, oscillators are oversold and turning higher.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Anything more?\u00a0 Yes! <\/strong>\u00a0<strong>Long term cycles indicate that silver has finally made a major bottom.<\/strong>\u00a0 I have little faith in short term cycles because prices are so easily manipulated by HF-Traders, but longer cycles are more difficult to manipulate, and more meaningful.\u00a0 When longer cycles align with other confirming evidence, it is significant.<\/p>\n<p>Note the following chart showing monthly silver prices back 25 years to 1990.\u00a0 All major lows in silver prices have been indicated by two long cycles \u2013 82 months and 123 months <em>(82 months times 1.5)<\/em>.\u00a0 The red vertical lines show the 82 month cycles and the green vertical lines show the 123 month cycles.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Z-silver-lows.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-7274\" src=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Z-silver-lows.jpg\" alt=\"Z-silver-lows\" width=\"1006\" height=\"775\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Monthly Silver Lows\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>82 Month Cycle Lows<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>March 1995\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jan. 1995<\/p>\n<p>Nov. 2001\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Nov. 2001<\/p>\n<p>Oct. 2008\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Sept. 2008<\/p>\n<p>July 2015\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 July 2015 \u00a0\u2013\u00a0 Now<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Monthly Silver Lows\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <strong>123 Month Cycle Lows<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jan. 1993\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Jan. 1993<\/p>\n<p>Oct. 2002 (by a few cents)\u00a0 May 2003<\/p>\n<p>June 2013\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 July 2013<\/p>\n<p>We could discuss whether the cycles are relevant or not, or if they should be 82 and 123 months, or less or more, but I see the following:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>When two cycles can point to every major low since 1993, they have value.<\/li>\n<li>The 82 month cycles point to a low in July or August of 2015 \u2013 NOW.<\/li>\n<li>Daily, Weekly, and Monthly oscillators indicate over-sold conditions and that the silver (and gold) market is due to rally. These confirm a silver cycle low for July \u2013 August 2015.<\/li>\n<li>At other 82 month cycle lows prices have rallied a little or a lot depending on other factors, so a cycle low is NOT a guarantee of substantially higher prices ahead.<\/li>\n<li>But given the last seven years of QE, ZIRP, other monetary manipulations, substantially increasing investment demand for silver, and insane debt levels that inevitably will increase further, it looks like a major low has been reached in silver.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>By the way, the next MAJOR silver lows, based on the 82 month and 123 month cycles are due about mid-2022 and late 2023.<\/p>\n<p>What about cycle highs?\u00a0 I see a 94 month cycle in silver highs that might be significant.\u00a0 Note the silver highs in January 1980, 1987, 1995, 2003-04, and 2011.\u00a0 The next high cycle, based on this progression, is due approximately 2019.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Z-silver-highs.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-7275\" src=\"http:\/\/deviantinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/Z-silver-highs.jpg\" alt=\"Z-silver-highs\" width=\"919\" height=\"732\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Assume that:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>A major LOW in silver has occurred in July 2015 or will occur soon.<\/li>\n<li>A potential cycle HIGH in silver is due in approximately 4 years.<\/li>\n<li>War cycles indicate a substantial increase in global conflicts for the next five years. (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.moneyandmarkets.com\/very-serious-stuff-war-cycles-hit-this-year-prepare-now-51479#.VcepB_lVhBc\">Larry Edelson and war cycles<\/a>)\u00a0 Consumer price inflation, higher silver and gold prices, increasing debt, and increasing war cycles trend together.<\/li>\n<li>In the long term, silver prices trend with US national debt, which we can all agree will continue to grow much larger.<\/li>\n<li>Silver lows are due in 7 \u2013 8 years, which allows considerable time for prices to spike higher in 2019 \u2013 2020 before they drop into cycle lows in 2022-23.<\/li>\n<li>There are many reasons for silver to rally substantially from here and possibly two for silver prices to stagnate or continue to fall \u2013 global deflation and recession\/depressions via crashing economies. But, do you believe that central banks and governments will not fight deflation and recession with every \u201cprinting press\u201d available?\u00a0 In that scenario, I think money supply and debt will accelerate higher along with silver prices.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Silver is at or very near an intermediate bottom and an 82 month cycle low.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Long term cycles indicate another high is due in about four years \u2013 plenty of time for silver to rally far higher.<\/li>\n<li>Fiscal policy and monetary policy \u2013 spend and \u201cprint\u201d \u2013 support much higher prices for silver.<\/li>\n<li>Even global recession and global deflation are likely to force much more QE and \u201cmoney printing\u201d to bail out banks, the economy, and governments, and that will push silver prices higher.<\/li>\n<li>Stack silver and trust that your governments and central banks will devalue their currencies, which they do so effectively.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Gary Christenson<br \/>\nThe <a href=\"http:\/\/www.deviantinvestor.com\/\">Deviant Investor<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a style=\"font-weight: 300; color: #2e227a;\" href=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\/\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-52343\" src=\"http:\/\/commonstockwarrants.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/picasion.com_da9b3f8c7d75d63cb5036c424523515f.gif\" alt=\"picasion.com_da9b3f8c7d75d63cb5036c424523515f\" width=\"300\" height=\"250\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Posted on August 18, 2015 by Gary Christenson The price of silver has been crushed during the last four years.\u00a0 Prices are ready to reverse.\u00a0 We will know soon enough after the High-Frequency-Traders have their way with prices for paper silver and gold on the CME.\u00a0 But consider: Casey Research:\u00a0 Top 7 Reasons I\u2019m Buying [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11475,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[138,137,102,198],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106850"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=106850"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106850\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":106852,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106850\/revisions\/106852"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11475"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=106850"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=106850"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/juniorminingnews.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=106850"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}