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Two Investment Opportunities You Don’t Want To Miss

November 7, 2018 By Dudley Pierce Baker   Let’s face facts, these precious metals markets have been devastating over the last several years. Some of you receiving this email have been previous subscribers to my services. I understand your frustration but the times are a changing and it is time to be positioned to capitalize on the next big up move in the resource sector. In my personal portfolio which is viewable by my Gold and Lifetime Subscribers you can see all of my positions, whether common shares or stock warrants. I trust this information is valuable to subscribers and while I am not privy to exactly when these markets will turn strongly to the upside, however, I do know a good deal when I see one. And now I am seeing two awesome situations. My current subscribers are aware of these situations. Yes, two great deals with Gold companies … Continue reading

Rocket Time For Gold

Note from Dudley Pierce Baker, Founder-Editor, http://CommonStockWarrants.com and http://JuniorMiningNews.com: I first saw this article on 321Gold.com and thought it would be of great interest to all resource investors. I suggest you read this carefully, particularly #13 below, ….“An annoying decline from $1320 to $1180 was required to give ultimate symmetry to the massive inverse head and shoulders bull continuation pattern shown here….” If I can be of assistance, visit my websites above.   Stewart Thomson email: stewart@gracelandupdates.com email: stewart@gracelandjuniors.com email: stewart@gutrader.com   Oct 16, 2018 With a technical double bottom pattern as a launchpad, gold continues to move solidly higher while global stock markets get smashed. What comes next for these key markets and what are the main factors at play? Please click here now. Double click to enlarge this daily gold chart. What began innocently as a bullish non-confirmation between gold-USD and yuan-USD is now a powerful rally fuelled by positive action in … Continue reading

US Equities Mount Impressive Early Recovery

October 16, 2018 Chris Vermeulen As fast as the downside breakout occurred, the upside recovery appears to be taking place as Q3 Earnings begin to hit the news wires.  This past weekend, the news cycles and market experts all seemed to have opinions about where the US equities market was headed after last week’s price collapse.  We’ve read everything from warnings of a $20 trillion dollar collapse to seeing Bloomberg’s SMART INDEX chart showing equity valuations are near historic market bottoms.  It seems everyone wanted to get out and share their opinions – I guess we are no different. The facts still remain the same, until the global market dynamics change and the US equities markets break the defined price channels that have been well established, we do not see any reason to consider a 6~8% correction life-threatening.  In the total scope of the price range, this move represents less … Continue reading

Commodities and the Dollar

October 10, 2018 A unique setup has occurred in the UUP (Invesco DB US Dollar Index) that resembles an Engulfing Bearish type of pattern (even though it is not technically an Engulfing Bearish pattern).  Technically, an Engulfing Bearish pattern should consist of a green candle followed by a larger red candle whereas the red candle’s body (the open to close range) completely engulfs the previous candle’s body.  In the instance we are highlighting in this article, a unique variation of what we’ll call a “Completely Filled Engulfing Bearish” pattern is setting up. This is when two red candles setup in an Engulfing Bearish type of formation – omitting the requirement that the first candle be green.  Japanese Candlesticks help us to identify the psychology of the market price in relation to our other specialized tools.  We believe this formation is important because both of the red candlesticks that make up … Continue reading

Signals for the Coming Crash in Stocks and Rally in Gold

Signals for the Coming Crash in Stocks and Rally in Gold- David Brady,CFA(19/09/2018) By David Brady, CFA Sept 19,2018 The U.S. imposed new tariffs on China this week that were close to the worst possible scenario, despite mainstream media comments to the contrary. The fact that China responded with nothing more than 5-10% tariffs on $60bln of U.S. imports soothed the markets, and stocks rallied. The mistake being made, however, is that China is unlikely done retaliating just yet, and there is likely more to come. What is clear is that neither side is willing to back down in this trade war, so it is probably going to get worse. This is why I still see a risk of higher USD/CNY (despite recent comments from the Chinese Premier to the contrary) and lower Gold prices ahead. The bigger question is: when does it all end? When does Gold finally bottom … Continue reading

David Morgan: Crash Day In Silver and Gold

David discusses the recent drop in silver and how it is another “spike low.” These massive down days are often very sudden quick drops. These “spikes” are a good entry and exit point if you’re looking to get into the market. People don’t act consistently and keep to a simple strategy. He discusses what works for him in these markets and what he uses as indicators. He has bought this dip and will buy more if it drops again and expects a gradual price increase once the precious metals market gets moving and later on a price surge. Mr. Morgan talks about the concept of overhead resistance and why its a psychological barrier to price increases. There is a lot of this resistance that has to be overcome before the price can move higher. However, these are small markets, and resistance could be quickly overpowered if there is a flight … Continue reading

The Strongest Commodities Bull Market of All Time Starts Now


August 15, 2018

Seeing gold and silver plunge recently many investors may be ready to throw in the towel.

That would be a big mistake as many of us continue to believe that ‘the turn’ is coming and will lead us into another bull market in resource shares.

Yesterday our friends at Casey Research came our with their August issue of The International Speculator.and they are very bullish thus their tittle of this issue: The Strongest Commodities Bull Market of all Time Starts Now. Our course, I can not give details from their services other than to say they are bullish, very bullish on the entire commodities complex.

Whether you are a subscriber of Casey Research or my Common Stock Warrants, we and many other newsletters continue to be bullish and see great gains ahead. Yes, many dollars have been lost recently in this sector, but you must be a contrarian investor. If we are not at the bottom, we are damn close, and it is time to get started or add to you current positions.

Be bold, be brave and step up to the plate and you will be greatly rewarded over the next couple of years.

Dudley Pierce Baker
Founder – Editor
http://JuniorMiningNews.com
http://CommonStockWarrants.com

 

Will 2018 Be A Repeat of 2002 Tariffs on Resource Heavy TSX, ASX and TSXV?


Tariffs are front and center right now in the markets, and during the 2002 steel tariffs, the steel tariffs were not good for the U.S. markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ were all down between 20-30% during the 2002 steel tariffs, before recovering, when tariffs ended in December 2003. With the US now imposing steel tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. While exempting Australia, South Korea, Brazil, and Argentina. What does this mean for the Canadian stock markets, and what will happen to the Australian markets, if Australia gets hit with the steel tariffs? Both the TSX & ASX are heavily weighted to financials and materials, and both experienced huge housing booms over the past decade. Will gold be a safe haven for Canadian and Australian investors?

“I do think that this trade stuff is a negative. It is going to hurt sentiment. Its badly thought through. Its not strategic. There are legitimate complaints about trade. But this is not the way to go about it. And you see it in the volatility in the market” Jamie Dimon (Chairman & CEO of JPMogran Chase)  (Source CNBC)

2002 TARIFFS IMPACT ON CANADA TO THE S&P/TSX Composite & S&P/TSX Venture 

Even though Canada was exempt during the 2002 steel tariffs, S&P/TSX Composite fell by almost 30% during the US imposing the steel tariffs in 2002. The S&P/TSX Composite finished slightly positive by the time the tariffs were over. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite (Venture), Canada’s junior market, not only FELL less during the bear market but significantly outperformed by the end of the tariffs. The Venture was up by almost 50%. The sector rotation out of technology and into commodities had begun, and the Venture saw HUGE fund flows because of its heavily weighted in junior mining (gold stock, silver stocks, copper stocks, etc.) and junior oil & gas stocks. You had capital pull out of speculative tech stocks (Nortel Networks) and venture capital and put into high-risk commodity focused junior explorers, developers, and junior miners. The Venture is the largest venture capital space in the world to invest in small cap natural resource stocks, providing exposure to exploration, development, production, and mining services. If history repeats, then the TSX Venture is set to outperform the broader markets once again.

2002 TARIFFS IMPACT ON THE ASX 200?

The broader ASX 200 fell less than the Canadian and US markets during the 2002 US steel tariffs while the North American equities were selling off in the second half of 2002. The broader ASX Materials Index finished positive, just over 10% by the end of 2003We can see that even in Australia the sector rotation into materials had started to take place following tech burst. What was surprising, in 2002, was that both the ASX 200 bottomed in February 2003, posting modest negative returning during the trade situation. The ASX Materials in contrasts bottomed in September 2002. While only a few months into the US steel tariffs, the overall ASX Market continues to be up, with the ASX materials up but lagging the broader index ASX 200. Gold significantly outperformed the ASX, even when adjusting for currency appreciation.

WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME FOR CANADA?

Unlike the U.S Federal Reserve, that was decreasing rates, after September 11, only a few months prior to the steel tariffs, and the bursting of the tech bubble. In Canada, the Bank of Canada (BoC) raised its target four times over the same time period, by 125 BPS, from 2.25% to 3.5%. But it didn’t stop there. In July 2003, the tightening was over, and the target was reduced to 3.25%, then again to 3.00% Where the is Bank of Canada today? No change in its target yet since the US steel tariffs started and no reaction yet to them being implemented on Canada. But will they be forced to raise their targets?

The economic progress we have seen makes us more confident that higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed,” Governor Poloz said. “We will continue to watch how households and the entire economy are reacting to higher interest rates. And we will be cautious in making future adjustments to monetary policy, guided by incoming data.”

Canadian households have built up about $2 trillion of debt, including $1.5 trillion of mortgage debt….a prolonged period of low interest rates that allowed borrowers to take out larger mortgages for the same payment size. This debt is now a vulnerability, both for the whole economy and for highly indebted households who will face increased debt-service costs when interest rates rise. “We are closely watching the vulnerability represented by this group and the debt they carry, and how it poses a risk to both the financial system and the economy,” Governor Poloz said.  – Bank of Canada

Canadian households continue to be significantly more leveraged than they were before the 2008 recession. But will the Bank of Canada raise rates? They may have no choice. Are household and businesses going to be able to handle inflation pressures they are already experiencing from rising gas prices? Brent crude hits its highest level since 2014. There is also the July 1st deadline of tariffs being added to US imports.

“The problem for the Bank of Canada is this. What do they really control? So, when we get the Bank of Canada press statement, what is it they do? They actually just have an influence on the overnight rate and the overnight rate you can say as sort of an impact to the very front end of the curve. But the reality is that the Canadian bond curve is 90% correlated to the US Treasury market. What are US Treasury yields doing? They’re back up. There’s nothing the Bank of Canada can do about that. US Treasury yields are backing up. We are importing a good part of that into Canada. Mortgages are ultimately priced off the bond curve. And so, look at what happened last week. Even just weeks after the Bank of Canada said we’re are on, maybe on hold indefinitely. Mortgage rates went up last week because of the importation of higher bond yields south of the border.

…. This is the shocking statistic. Normally conservative Canadians that historically really went and took out five-year mortgages. They didn’t want to take on refinancing risk. Half of the Canadian residential mortgages rollover in the next year. Almost half, the number if 47%. That shocking” – David Rosenberg (Source BNN Bloomberg)

WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS TIME FOR AUSTRALIA?

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) during the 2002 episode of tariffs, followed the similar path to the Bank of Canada by raising its cash target rate four times, by 100 BPS from 4.25% to 5.25%. But there were no reductions, only hikes, and holds. Where is the RBA now? The RBA has stayed the course by holding rates, but will it follow history and begin raising rates? What about the impending interest-only loans that need to be refinanced over the next three years? Will the RBA hold back from raising rates? Time will tell.

In Australia interest-only mortgages, which during “their recent peak, they accounted for almost 40 per cent of all mortgages. While interest-only loans have a role to play in Australian mortgage finance, their value has limits.” Will overseas funding costs that are impacted by the US increasing rate, rise well? Over the last 20 years to 30 June 2014 the correlation between Australian and US 10-year yields has been 0.84 measured over quarterly periods with a correlation of 0.71”Source: Franklin Templeton. While not the short-end of the curve, as we have seen recently with many emerging markets rising interest rates is becoming the new normal and Australia will have to raise the cash rate soon if the Fed keeps going.

IMPACT ON CAPITAL MARKETS IN CANADA & AUSTRALIA

Due to the tight correlation that Australian and Canadian rates have to US rates, we could see banks hike their mortgage rates higher if the US Fed continues to raise its target rate. We would also expect this would further put pressure on both of their housing markets and the capital markets if a broader sell-off takes hold because of the tariffs as had previously occurred in the 2002 tariffs. This may present opportunities for royalty stocks like to provide funding to the sector because capital markets funding through equity issuance and commercial lending from banks would dry up.

WINNERS FROM THE US 2002 STEEL TARIFFS

  • Gold was the clear winner in the US Steel Tariffs.
  • Canada’s TSX Venture Index was the clear index winner in terms of performance because it is heavily weighted in small-cap natural resource stocks in mining and oil & gas.
  • If history repeats, the tariffs may be the signal over a 1-2 year time period, the start of the rotation out of technology and into commodity assets, just like the 2002 US tariffs signaled the rotation into the 2000’s commodities boom.

The outlier remains how long will the US Federal Reserve continue to keep raising and removing liquidity until something breaks?

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Upside Dow Breakout May Be Just The Beginning

 

 

At this point, all we can say is “Wow – did you see that breakout?”.  If you have been following our analysis, you already know we’ve been predicting this upside price move for over 4 weeks with our specialized price modeling systems, cycle analysis models and other specialized trading tools.  Last weekend, we posted very detailed analysis of the Elliot Wave and Fibonacci price levels that suggest we could see another upside price move that no one is expecting.

Please take a minute to read our two recent Elliot Wave research posts before you continue reading this post.  We want to make sure you understand the components of this price setup and what we believe will be the most likely outcome.

The upside breakout in price on Monday actually originated with an upside gap Sunday night.  This upside gap was likely the result of a combination of factors, yet it supported our analysis that the US major markets are poised for a dramatic upside price move soon.  Our Elliot Wave analysis suggested we could be setting up for a Wave 3-d upside price move that will end with a corrective price move sometime in early/mid 2019.  In order to confirm this analysis, we have to see new all-time price highs established before the end of 2018 with a solid upside price rally in place.

While the YM (DOW) was the only US major to show a clear upside price breakout, we believe the other US major markets will follow along soon enough.  We have highlighted what we believe is a critical support zone on this YM chart to try to illustrate that price rotation is normal.  We expect to see a 1~2% price rotation throughout this upside move that is completely natural and healthy for the markets.

 

Again, this is completely natural as the YM (Dow Jones index) is tied to the DOW Industrials and the Transportation Index which are breaking out this week. A breakout move like this in the YM suggests that the overall US economy is strengthening and that the future expectations are good that increased levels of transportation of goods will unfold. In our next post we will go into detail on these two sectors and show you some new opportunities emerging.

Additionally, we wanted to show you this NQ chart that is waiting for breakout confirmation from price.  Sometimes, the US majors do not always move in unison.  There are times when the S&P or the Nasdaq will move with greater velocity while the other US majors appear to move in a more muted manner.

The NQ, being tech-heavy, relies more on earnings and revenues from the FANG group.  A move higher in the NQ would indicate that future earning and revenue expectations are strengthening.  This is something we believe will happen in the near future as we expect the NQ to follow the YM with an upside price breakout very soon.

We are still very early in this trading week and we have lots of time for this move to unfold.  We can help you find and execute better trades with our advanced market timing and trade setups for active traders.  Our members already know what our predictive modeling systems are suggesting for the next 5+ weeks.

Our 53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.

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I Like the Penny Stocks Right Here and Right Now

May 16, 2018 By Dudley Pierce Baker http://JuniorMiningNews.com http://CommonStockWarrants.com Hello Investors, Crazy as it may sound, I love this game of investing in the penny stocks and possibly some of the stock warrants trading on resource companies. While some of you may believe this is a crap shoot there is actually some logical reasoning that could make you a substantial amount of money in the up coming bull market in the resource sector. Higher gold, silver and copper prices are coming believe it or not. Yes, gold has just plunged below $1300 for the first time in many months but as I write, it is holding around the .618 retracement of $1290 or so. True, I do not want to see much more of a decline from here and we really need to get back above $1300 ASAP. So, my cautionary warning for you, is that you should be prepared … Continue reading