I am happy to now be sharing some great investment content with you from
our friend Chris Vermeulen at TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy the read,
May 16, 2018 By Dudley Pierce Baker http://JuniorMiningNews.com http://CommonStockWarrants.com Hello Investors, Crazy as it may sound, I love this game of investing in the penny stocks and possibly some of the stock warrants trading on resource companies. While some of you may believe this is a crap shoot there is actually some logical reasoning that could make you a substantial amount of money in the up coming bull market in the resource sector. Higher gold, silver and copper prices are coming believe it or not. Yes, gold has just plunged below $1300 for the first time in many months but as I write, it is holding around the .618 retracement of $1290 or so. True, I do not want to see much more of a decline from here and we really need to get back above $1300 ASAP. So, my cautionary warning for you, is that you should be prepared … Continue reading
I am happy to now be sharing some great investment content with you from
our friend Chris Vermeulen at TheTechnicalTraders.com.
Enjoy the read,
May 12, 2018 Chris Vermeulen Our research team wanted to alert our followers to the incredible opportunities that continue to present themselves in the current market. While many people have been overly concerned about a market top and price rotation in the US majors, the Energy sector and many others have seen incredible price moves. Take a look at this XLE chart as an example. Yes, we know that Oil has rallied from about $60 to closer to $70 recently, yet we want you to focus on the price pattern that setup this move in XLE. Specifically, we want you to focus on the Multi-Month Base pattern in price between early February and early April of 2018 as well as the upside breakout that followed. In true technical analysis theory, price tells us everything and indicators assist us in relating current price movement/action to historical price movement/action. … Continue reading
May 6, 2018 On Wednesday, May 2, we issued a research post supporting our position that the markets were nearing an apex breakout and that critical support and resistance levels had established within the market. We indicated that volatility is usually quite high throughout these apex breakout moves with the potential for a “wash-out” price rotation in the works. In other words, as these apex breakouts happen, price can sometimes, falsely, break to one side or the other and rotate very quickly to the other side – creating what we call a “wash-out” price reversal. Closing out this week, prices broke lower on Thursday, May 3, and reversed sharply before the end of the trading session to create a “wash-out” low formation which is indicative of a price bottom. We felt strongly that our ADL price modeling system’s analysis as well as this bottom formation are strong evidence that the US … Continue reading
John Murphy | April 21, 2018 at 05:20 PM Editor’s Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy’s Market Message on Thursday, April 19th at 12:11pm ET BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT… This week’s surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That’s because rising commodity prices are a leading indicator of inflation. Rising commodity prices have a lot of intermarket implications. For one thing, rising commodity prices usually cause Treasury bond prices to fall and yields to rise (as they’re doing today). That usually helps stocks tied to commodities and those that benefit from rising rates (like banks and financials). But it would hurt rate-sensitive bond proxies like staples, utilities, and REITS. Rising bond yields could, however, cause the yield curve to steepen and relieve recent concerns about it falling to the lowest level in a decade. Let’s look at some … Continue reading
The super powers in the West are doing what they can to provoke Russia and indirectly China and Iran into a world war. Most people alive today were not adults when WWII started and therefore did not follow the lead up to the war. But today the whole world can watch how the West has chosen to attack a country which has no major significance geopolitically and does not threaten any other country. Still the West clearly knows that bombing of Syria can start a global conflict with potentially horrendous consequences.
There is no intelligent reporting of these events in the Western media. Whatever propaganda the media is fed, they just publish it without any analysis or investigation. And the US with its allies do not wait for any independent verification of alleged use of chemical weapons. That a world war could start on such fickle reasoning is absolutely frightening.
Syria is of course only an excuse. As a country it would be of no consequence for the safety of the rest of the world if it was left alone. Most wars are started by nations which are under economic pressure domestically. The US and UK fit that picture perfectly.
With debts growing exponentially and massive budget and trade deficits, both these countries are on the way to bankruptcy. Added to that, their leaders are under major pressure at home. Trump has “Deep State” and impeachment pressures and Theresa May suffers from weak leadership in a minority government with an unresolved Brexit. This is the perfect background for pretending that there is a major global conflict and diverting the attention to the international scene.
It is only Russia’s restraint which has so far stopped this conflict from turning into something very serious for the world. We must remember that Russia only has two military bases outside of their country whilst the US has around 1,000. Also, according to independent experts, Russia’s military might is far superior to that of the US. But in the case of a nuclear war, both countries have more than enough power to destroy the world. So we must hope and pray that it won’t come to that.
Virtually nobody can protect against a global nuclear conflict. But we can protect against local conflicts and we can protect against a financial crisis. In 2001 we decided as a company that protection against a potential financial crisis was an absolute necessity. Thus we took the decision to invest in physical gold for our clients and ourselves. At the time, I regarded the continuous deficit spending, credit growth and the derivative time bomb as major risks.
The best time to make a strategic and long-term investment decision is when the asset you intend to buy is unloved and undervalued. That was certainly the case with gold at the time. Gold had been going down for 19 years from $850 in 1980 to a low of $250 in 1999. Central banks around the world had been selling a major part of their gold. The UK and Switzerland comes to mind as two countries selling the majority of their gold around the lows – a very good buying signal.
As we were forecasting a potential financial crisis at some point in the future, we recommended, in early 2002 to our investors to buy gold for up to 50% of their financial assets. Gold was then $300. At the time this was quite a radical proposition, especially since gold was then a barbarous relic that was totally out of fashion. The advantage with buying an undervalued asset that is not on the front pages, is that the risk is so much smaller than when the trade becomes crowded.
The timing was quite fortunate. As the chart below shows, gold rose every year from $300 in 2002 to $1,920 in 2011. In 2013 a bigger correction started which ended in 2015. Since then gold has only moved up slowly just like it did in 1999-2001.
In my opinion, gold is now in the process of breaking out from the 5 year consolidation. We need to get proper confirmation with a move to $1,400 but the position of the quarterly chart confirmed by the rising MACD indicator is a strong sign that the next move in gold to new highs is imminent.
The chart below also shows that gold is in a strong uptrend and that the correction in the last 5 years is minor and finishing.
We must remember that gold is not bought or held as a conventional investment for capital appreciation purposes. No, gold has a much more important function than that. Our company invested in gold in 2002 because we identified the risks in the financial system as very high. But today the risks are substantially higher and the reason for buying physical gold even more compelling.
WE BUY PHYSICAL GOLD BECAUSE:
It might appear that I am a gold bug but that is far from the case. We bought gold in 2002 to protect against the colossal risks we saw in the world economy and financial system. We are not in love with gold but believe that it is the best protection you can buy and own today. At some point gold will be overloved and overvalued. Then we will recommend to our investors to sell some of their gold or swap it against other assets which are unloved and undervalued. But I expect that time to be quite a few years away.
Today at $1,350, gold is as unloved and undervalued as it was when we bought in 2002 at $300. On an real inflation adjusted basis gold at $1,350 today is at the same level as in 2002. (see chart below) and also at a 300 year low. The 1980 gold peak at $850, adjusted for inflation, would be $16,450 in today’s money – 12x higher than currently. That price is more in line with our own targets.
Silver is even more undervalued. On the same inflation adjusted basis, silver is also at a 300 year low. At $17.20 today, inflation adjusted silver is the same as in 2000 at around $4. And the 1980 silver high of $50 would today be $761 – a 44x increase from here.
Gold at $16,450 and silver at $761, makes the gold-silver ratio 22, which is in line with historical levels. But since the ratio is just below 79 today, it means that silver will move almost 4x as fast as gold.
Bearing in mind that credit creation has been exponential in this century with global debt having doubled to $250 trillion since 2006, gold has in no way reflected this money printing and total destruction of paper money. So this is still to come. Once the intervention in the paper market fails, which could happen at any time, the moves in gold and silver will be explosive.
The time to own physical gold and silver is today and not when they move to new highs. Both metals are at inflation adjusted historical lows and the downside risk is minimal. Also, they probably are the most undervalued of all assets currently.
With geopolitical, economic and financial risks at an extreme high, please don’t ignore these risks and don’t ignore history. And with the precious metals at extreme lows, it would be very unwise not to own substantial protection in the form of physical gold and silver.
April 17, 2018 IT’S TRUE Dudley Pierce Baker, here, founder and editor of Junior Mining News and Common Stock Warrants for well over 10 years. I just reviewed my portfolio and I currently do not hold any positions, be they, shares or stock warrants, which are selling for over 50 cents. And since most of my positions are in Canadian shares and Canadian dollars, that is only about 40 cents in U.S. dollars. You can call me crazy but, crazy like a fox, as I am out to hit many home runs in the resource sector as gold and silver breakout, which is coming soon. My portfolio has a balance of oil and gas shares, gold and silver companies, several of which are small producers. I also own several of the uranium companies. While I may be known to investors as ‘the warrant guy’, only 25% of my portfolio is … Continue reading
Silver didn’t get the push it needed to outpace the rise in gold last year, as some analysts had expected, but good things come to those who wait.
“Many of silver’s key drivers that painted a bullish picture last year are still in play for 2018, particularly rising inflationary pressures and a weaker U.S. dollar,” says Maxwell Gold, director of investment strategy at ETF Securities.
Even so, silver futures have lost roughly 5% so far this year as of Friday, trailing gold’s 0.3% decline. In 2017, gold gained nearly 14%—roughly double the rise for silver. Silver closed on Friday at $16.54 an ounce.
Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, says he expected silver to top gold last year and this year, but that hasn’t happened because the rally in gold hasn’t had “the kind of consistency…necessary to lead investors to look to silver for additional leverage.”
That will come, he says, given his expectation for further declines in the U.S. dollar on the back of “recent signs of rising inflation and the fact that we’re in the back half of the [Federal Reserve’s] tightening cycle.” Other central banks look poised to begin tightening monetary policy, he says. A weaker dollar will translate into “upward pressure on gold and, eventually, as this trend becomes apparent, greater gains for silver,” says Lundin.
Demand will also play a big part in silver’s climb.
“Silver demand from industrial applications is expected to grow mainly from [electric vehicle] and photovoltaic applications, as silver has excellent electrical conductivity properties,” says Will Rhind, chief executive officer of exchange-traded fund company GraniteShares. Photovoltaic panels collect solar energy. “With continued global economic growth, continued EV demand and a weakening dollar, silver has the potential to perform well in 2018 and potentially outperform gold,” he says.
A report from the Silver Institute released in January shows that demand for the white metal from industrial applications is the largest component for silver offtake, representing 60% last year, and it’s expected to continue to grow this year. Worldwide silver demand for photovoltaic applications, particularly in solar panels, reached an estimated 92 million ounces in 2017.
“We expect the growth to continue this year and set another record for silver demand, driven by large-scale solar capacity additions and continued strong demand uptake from individual households, particularly in China,” the report says.
Analysts also point out that the gold-to-silver price ratio, which measures the amount of silver ounces that can be exchanged for one ounce of gold, is historically high, suggesting a bargain in silver.
SILVER “REMAINS RELATIVELY CHEAP compared with gold,” with the gold-to-silver ratio at about 80, versus a historical average of 60, says ETF Securities’ Gold. “Silver may play catch-up, spurred by bargain buying among retail and ETF investors.” The silver bullion-backed iShares Silver Trust ETF (ticker: SLV) has lost nearly 3% year to date.
Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, says that silver’s “failure to rise with gold so far in 2018 means that silver is touching extreme levels, in terms of the yellow precious metal.” The gold-to-silver ratio makes “gold very nearly as expensive as it has been any time in the past 25 years,” he says.
He also points out that over the past 50 years, silver and gold prices have gone in the same direction on 71% of all trading days and the two metals have moved in the same direction in 74% of the months since 1968. Given that, “if you’re bullish on gold, history says you should expect silver to rise, too,” says Ash.
And even after last year’s disappointing performance for silver, Lundin believes that prices will climb above $18 an ounce this year and “perhaps significantly higher.”
That said, he also warns of a possible dip to the mid-$15 range, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield hits 3%. “Breaking that benchmark would likely lead to short-term havoc in risk assets, leading investors to sell the metals to meet margin calls,” Lundin says.
MYRA P. SAEFONG covers commodities for MarketWatch.
POSTED ON FEBRUARY 26, 2018 BY PAUL There are a group of bankers based in three cities, not Wall St., but Toronto, Vancouver, and Denver that you probably never heard of. Surprisingly, they are gold stocks. They are royalty & streaming companies, otherwise known as the Three Kings (Franco-Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious Metals) are the non-media grabbing bankers in the mining sector. They collect their revenue from some of the biggest mining companies in the world: Glencore, Vale, Teck Resources, Barrick Gold, Newmont Mining, AngloGold Ashanti Limited. Yet, if you add up the staff of these 3 companies, it would be less than 100 people. At the same time, their combined revenue of almost $2 billion in 2016. You could call them the bankers of mining. Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold were both founded in the 1980’s. Wheaton Precious Metals (previously named Silver Wheaton) is the new entrant over the past ten years to … Continue reading
Posted on February 16, 2018 by Egon von Greyerz US economics is extremely predictable. It doesn’t matter who is President and what party he comes from. Because every president will spend more money than the US can afford. On average, US Federal debt has doubled every 8 years since Reagan came to power in 1981. And Trump has just fulfilled the prediction. The budget deal that has been agreed is guaranteed to produce substantial deficits in coming years. The current year’s deficit might be just under $1 trillion but thereafter it is virtually guaranteed that the US will not have a budget deficit under $1 trillion for many, many years. US FEDERAL DEBT $40 TRILLION BY 2025 During Bush Jr, debt went form $10T to $ 20T. Whether Trump will manage to keep it below $28T by 2021 is questionable. What is more certain is that by 2025, whoever is president, … Continue reading