Thoughts from the Frontline: Debt Be Not Proud

By John Mauldin Some things never change. Here is Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk, one of the founding intellectuals of the Austrian school of economics, writing in January 1914, lambasting politicians for their complicity in the corruption of monetary policy:We have seen innumerable variations of the vexing game of trying to generate political contentment through material concessions. If formerly the Parliaments were the guardians of thrift, they are today far more like its sworn enemies. Nowadays the political and nationalist parties … are in the habit of cultivating a greed of all kinds of benefits for their co-nationals or constituencies that they regard as a veritable duty, and should the political situation be correspondingly favorable, that is to say correspondingly unfavorable for the Government, then political pressure will produce what is wanted. Often enough, though, because of the carefully calculated rivalry and jealousy between parties, what has been granted to one has also … Continue reading

Do you own Canadian Stock certificates from a Private Placement or for services?

February 23, 2015 Editor Note: Dudley Baker has used Penntrade as his brokerage firm for many years and highly recommendations them. Interesting article here which we are passing on to our readership. If you contact them, please tell them Dudley Baker send you. If you are a U.S. Resident who has ever participated in a Canadian Stock Private Placement or received shares for various services, please keep reading. I have been helping many U.S. based investors over the years to deposit, transfer and trade their Canadian stock certificates. A few years ago I even wrote an article on the subject that appeared on sites such as Kitco, 321 Gold, Gold Seek etc. Overall the process is not as painful as one would think.  How to Sell Restricted Canadian Stock in the U.S. – A 4-minute Briefing – http://www.pennaluna.com/selling-restricted-canadian-stock-in-the-u-s/   Feel free to forward my e-mail on to anyone you know that … Continue reading

Doug Casey on ISIS, Gold, Oil, and What to Expect in 2015

By Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist Today’s feature is a special treat: a peek into the brain of one of the most successful speculators of all time. In what follows, Doug Casey talks to Louis James about what to expect in 2015. Doug weighs in on today’s most important issues, including ISIS, oil, Putin, and the stock market. He even sticks his nose out to make a bold call on gold. This (usually subscriber-only) content originally appeared in The Casey Report. Enjoy! Louis James: It’s been a long, eventful quarter since we last spoke, Doug. What’s most on your mind as 2014 draws to a close and we look ahead to 2015? Doug Casey: Let’s start with gold, since that’s the main focus we’ve had for so long. The Swiss gold reserve referendum just went down in flames, of course, and that was a big disappointment to many. L: Really? I don’t know anyone who … Continue reading

Dear Harry Dent: Wanna Bet?

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst Some of you may be aware that investment guru Harry Dent has publicly stated that gold will fall to $250-$400. He specifically predicted: Around $700/ounce is a certainty in gold by 2015 to 2016, and $250 is a possibility well down the line by 2020–2023. His forecast is largely based on his belief that deflation will prevail. Governments are fighting deflation. If government stimulus fails, we will have deflation, not inflation. And he claims that gold bugs are wrong about gold’s future price because they don’t understand how markets work. Central bank stimulus has created a whole new set of financial asset bubbles that will have to burst. That is its consequences, not rising inflation that most gold bugs (who do understand the financial and debt crisis) warn about. As a gold analyst who’s spent every day of the last seven-plus years watching this … Continue reading

Video: John Kaiser proposes a new system for financing junior miners

POSTED ON FEBRUARY 19, 2015 BY TOMMY HUMPHREYSCATEGORY FEATURED INTERVIEW, JOHN KAISER, MINERAL EXPLORATION In the good old days of Howe Street, venture stock-brokers would act as an intermediary between junior mining companies and investors. This is a somewhat murky ethical practice of the brokers having two masters, both the companies they were helping to get off the ground, and the clients with which they were to serve. Investors tolerated this conflict of interest because they knew what they were getting into, and sometimes, they made a lot of money backing early stage deals. However, in recent years, large banks have consolidated the brokerage business, now controlling 95% of Canada’s wealth, according to some estimates. The banks do not want their brokers and clients to play in speculative securities like junior miners because of the risks and perceived conflicts of interest. Also, the big banks want to earn a management fee on assets over … Continue reading

Jim Rogers on Opportunities in Russia and Other Hated Markets

By Nick Giambruno Nick Giambruno: Welcome, Jim. As you know, Doug Casey and I travel the world surveying crisis markets, and we always like to get your take on things. Today I want to talk to you about Russia, which is a very hated market right now. What are your thoughts on Russia in general and on Russian stocks in particular? Jim Rogers: Well, I’m optimistic about the future of Russia. I was optimistic before this war started in Ukraine, which was instigated by the US, of course. But in any case, I bought more Russia during the Crimea incident, and I’m looking to buy still more. Unfortunately, what’s happening is certainly not good for the United States. It’s driving Russia and Asia together, which means we’re going to suffer in the long run—the US and Europe. Another of the big four Chinese banks opened a branch in Moscow recently. The Iranians are getting … Continue reading

The 10th Man: You Can’t Stop Progress, Supposedly

By Jared Dillian I am a sometimes gold bug and hard-money advocate, and a hard-core fiscal conservative. I have a pretty bearish outlook on the markets, I am generally skeptical of company management and especially journalists, and I think most investors, even the professional ones, are clueless.I’m one of those hopeless romantics who pays down his debt (often ahead of schedule), would never ask for a bailout, and would be loath to sign up for unemployment benefits or even Social Security. If I looked hard enough, I could probably find a tinfoil hat that fits.However, people who fit this profile are not typically big advocates of technology. You can’t use social media after the Snowden revelations, your phone is like a LoJack for the government, and who would trust a self-driving car? I would. Do you know how much reading you could get done? I love technology, and in spite … Continue reading

Find Gold and Silver Miners that Can Soar

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report  (2/11/15) Avoid Dodos and Find Gold and Silver Miners that Can Soar, Says Raymond James’ Chris Thompson Chris Thompson, mining analyst with Raymond James, is looking for companies that can continue to deliver real growth and shareholder upside—companies that can “fly”—regardless of metal prices. The high-flyers with upside, Thompson says, have good management, strong cash flow at current metal prices, organic growth potential and are undervalued relative to their peers offering those same attributes. In this interview with The Gold Report, Thompson offers some precious metal names that could soar. The Gold Report: A recent Raymond James research report refers to silver as the “devil’s metal.” What is the story there? Chris Thompson: Silver is much more volatile than gold. Typically when we see a weak day for the gold price, silver has a terrible day. Likewise, if we see a strong day for gold, typically silver delivers exceptional … Continue reading

2015 forecasts for gold and gold-mining stocks

SpeculativeInvestorFebruary 12, 2015
Steve Saville

Below is an excerpt from our 2015 Yearly Forecast originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com last month. Excerpts from our newsletters and other comments on the markets can be read at our blog: http://tsi-blog.com/

Gold

Here’s the conclusion of our 2014 gold forecast:

Based on the small historical sample size, which is all we have to go on, you should ignore the predictions that gold will zoom straight back to its 2011 top. This is particularly so considering that gold’s true fundamentals are mixed at this time (no longer bearish, but not yet bullish). Gold is likely to provide a good return in 2014, but even if a major bottom is in place the gold price is unlikely to trade significantly above $1600 and could have trouble getting beyond the $1400s.

We were wrong about gold providing a good return in 2014, at least relative to the US$. In US$ terms gold was flat in 2014, although it did provide a good return in terms of every other currency.

In 2014 gold performed roughly as expected in US$ terms during the first half of the year, but then fell to a new bear-market low during the second half. The problems for the US$ gold price during the second half of 2014 were the perceived strength of the US economy (linked to the continuing upward trend in the S&P500 Index), the flattening of the US yield-curve (related to the perceived US economic strength), and the Dollar Index’s upside breakout from a long-term basing pattern.

The gold market has come to ignore the strength in the Dollar Index, because the US dollar’s rise on the foreign exchange market has come to be seen as more of a reflection of declining confidence in the ECB and weakening global growth than a reflection of improving US$ fundamentals. However, there is no evidence, yet, that the S&P500 has peaked. Also, the US yield-curve hasn’t yet signaled a trend reversal from flattening to steepening, and despite the problems in the ‘oil patch’ the general belief is that the US economy will make real progress this year.

There is never a good time to make a 12-month forecast, since forecasting is for the birds. But right now is a particularly bad time to make a gold forecast, the reason being that changes in other markets are needed to turn the gold market higher on a sustained basis and the needed changes may or may not be about to happen. Of primary importance, a sustained turn to the upside in gold almost certainly requires a sustained turn to the downside in US equities. Some long-term indicators are warning that such a change is in the works, but the S&P500’s price action hasn’t yet signaled anything of the sort. The first sign would be a daily S&P500 close below 1970.

If the S&P500 is in the process of rolling over to the downside on a long-term basis then it’s highly probable that gold bottomed last November and will generate the sort of performance in 2015 that we originally expected to happen in 2014. That is, gold will probably work its way higher over the course of this year with a top most likely occurring in the $1400s and with an outside chance of making it as high as $1600. The most plausible alternative is that the S&P500 will make some additional headway over the next few months and gold will drop to test its 2014 bottom during the second quarter of this year prior to a long-term reversal.

Gold Stocks

Gold-mining stocks will normally outperform gold bullion by a wide margin during the first 2 years of a new cyclical gold bull market. This is due to the fact that the cost of mining gold follows the gold price with a lag of 1-2 years. Due to this and depending on the length of the preceding gold bear market, the cost of mining gold will probably be in a downward trend at the start of a new cyclical bull market in gold bullion and will probably continue to fall during the first 1-2 years of a new bull market in gold bullion. A rising trend in the gold price combined with depressed stock valuations and falling production costs equals substantial profit-margin expansion and large gains in stock prices. Consequently, if gold made its ultimate bottom last November then the HUI should achieve a large percentage gain over the next 18 months in both nominal price terms and relative to gold bullion.

Of course, that’s a big “if”. Preliminary signs have emerged that the US$ gold price did indeed make its ultimate bottom last November (the non-US$ gold price having almost certainly bottomed way back in December of 2013), but we have been disappointed before. Last year, to be specific.

A long-term (that is, multi-year) bullish trend in gold mining stocks (as represented by the HUI) naturally requires a long-term bullish trend in gold bullion, which probably requires a long-term bearish trend in the US stock market (as represented by the S&P500 Index). A transition from a long-term bearish to a long-term bullish trend in the HUI and an associated transition from a long-term bullish to a long-term bearish trend in the S&P500 Index is our favoured possibility at this time.

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The Companies Bob Moriarty Loves for the Long Term

Source: Karen Roche, The Gold Report  (2/9/15) The rapid and massive response when the Swiss unpegged the franc from the euro will ripple across the hedge fund, brokerage and financial systems. It also will infect other currencies, according to Bob Moriarty of321gold.com. Gold, he believes, will be the last man standing. In this interview, he tells The Gold Report where he is looking for love among midtier gold and silver stocks and explains why he has no love for overpaid CEOs. The Gold Report: The Swiss National Bank surprised the world by unpegging the franc from the euro. You wrote that you suspect this will be identified as the beginning of the end and that when the derivatives market blows up, it will take down billions of dollars in hedge funds. Is this the beginning of the end of derivatives and hedge funds or the beginning of the end of something bigger? Bob Moriarty: The beginning of … Continue reading